Russia may launch a new offensive in the spring or summer of 2024 - the Russian command may pay special attention to the western part of Donetsk Region, where active positional battles are taking place every day.
This was noted by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Experts point out that on March 30, there was a significant scale of Russian mechanized assault, which the enemy has not conducted since the beginning of the offensive to capture Avdiivka. ISW points out that Ukrainian troops repelled the attack on March 30, especially near Avdiivka.
Experts believe that Ukraine's withdrawal to defensive positions after the loss of the settlement could be a positive indicator of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against future large-scale Russian attacks, as well as against the expected offensive that ISW believes Russia may launch in the summer of 2024.
They mention how Ukrainian officials continue to warn, not without reason, about defending against an expected summer Russian offensive at a time when Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of ammunition, limited manpower, and delayed Western aid.
ISW indicates that the Russian command may be prioritizing the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Region for the offensive. They point to their readiness to throw a large amount of force at the attack near Avdiivka, which indicates that this assault is a priority.
Therefore, the experts conclude that the Russian command may focus its projected offensive in late spring or summer 2024 in western Donetsk Region in an attempt to build on the stable but insignificant gains of the occupation forces in this sector.
In addition, ISW experts continue to believe that the enemy army is likely to be able to launch an offensive in only one operational direction, given the limited human resources and planning.
Earlier we wrote that Russia is preparing for a war with NATO.