Ukraine in the middle of winter faced a gas shortage caused by Russian shelling of domestic gas infrastructure facilities, and therefore the accumulation of the necessary volumes of fuel will become a key issue in preparing for the new heating season. For this, it is planned to buy at least 4 billion cubic meters of gas abroad for $ 1 billion or more. At the same time, a significant part of imports may come to us from the USA. "Apostrophe" found out whether the purchase of American LNG has commercial feasibility, or is this another attempt to appease Donald Trump with unclear prospects.
Ukraine is going to import gas from the United States in 2025. This was stated by Dmytro Lippa, head of the state-owned company "GTS Operator of Ukraine", in an interview with Reuters.
The need to import gas is related to its shortage due to damage to the country's gas production and transportation infrastructure as a result of Russian missile attacks.
According to Dmytro Lippa, we are talking about at least 4 billion cubic meters of gas, most of which may be American liquefied natural gas (LNG).
"If we take the political aspect, it is best for us to bring as much (American LNG) as possible to Poland and, ultimately, deliver it to us," he said.
They didn't calculate the strength.
Gas purchases are planned to be carried out from April to October, that is, outside the heating season.
This is extremely important, as this year, Naftogaz of Ukraine, due to the deficit resulting from hostile attacks on the domestic gas infrastructure, began importing gas in January and especially in February. The total volume of purchases by the end of the current heating season is expected to be up to 1 billion cubic meters of gas, and since purchases are made on the European spot market, prices average about $550 per 1,000 cubic meters, while last summer they were at the level of $300-350.
Naftogaz was going to spend the current autumn-winter period on its own gas, but it pumped an insufficient amount of the resource into underground storage facilities.
"... even without shelling, the market estimated the need for gas injection from outside at somewhere around 1.5-2 billion cubic meters," Yuriy Boyko, advisor to the Prime Minister of Ukraine on energy issues, told Apostrophe in an interview .
According to Gennady Ryabtsev, head of special projects at the Psyche scientific and technical center, it was planned to accumulate 13.2 billion cubic meters of gas in the storage facilities by November 1, 2024, while in fact only 12.8 billion cubic meters were managed to be pumped in. In addition, by this time, fuel withdrawal from the storage facilities had already begun.
"And if we had 14 billion cubic meters, no one would talk about any deficit at all ," the expert said in a comment to the publication. " That is, we are talking about only 1 billion cubic meters."
Where to get a billion
Very soon, gas will begin to be pumped in for the new heating season (not to be confused with current purchases to cover the deficit that has formed). And it will not be possible to do this without imports. At the same time, due to the current deficit and the decrease in the level of domestic production due to damage to the gas production infrastructure, 1.5-2 billion cubic meters will no longer be enough.
"4 billion cubic meters is the minimum that needs to be purchased," Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, told Apostrophe.
How much could such a volume of gas cost our country? Reuters, based on its own calculations, calls the amount $1 billion. That is, it is about $250 per 1,000 cubic meters.
However, this price seems a bit optimistic.
"It all depends on when to buy. In the summer it will be about $300 per 1,000 cubic meters, maybe a little more," predicts Gennady Ryabtsev.
That means it's already $1.2 billion.
"If you buy this amount in Europe, it will be $1.7 billion. If you buy this amount directly from the LNG terminals of the USA, maybe Qatar, it will be $1-1.2 billion. It seems to me that the difference is tangible ," Oleksandr Kharchenko shares his calculations. " But we still don't have one billion or two billion, so this is still an abstract discussion."
Obviously, we are talking about obtaining a loan to purchase gas, but the main question is whether there will be anyone who will provide us with such a loan.
"If we had a good trading company, it would be sitting on planes between the United States and the Middle East right now, negotiating long-term supplies and looking for the best prices ," the expert says. " And another good team of loan negotiators would be flying between London, Washington, New York, and maybe Brussels, negotiating to get it on credit."
Whose gas is better?
Another important question: where to buy gas?
"You can buy it in Norway, you can buy it in Africa - there is pipeline gas going to Europe. There are quite a few sources where you can buy gas," says Oleksandr Kharchenko.
And of course, you can buy gas in the USA.
Recall that our country plans to pump gas from the United States into its storage facilities not only for its own needs, but also for sale on the European market .
However, how profitable will the import of American LNG be, and will its purchase not become another attempt to attract US President Donald Trump? Especially since the head of the company "GTS Operator of Ukraine" Dmytro Lippa openly speaks about the political component of this decision.
"Perhaps geopolitically, this is also correct - to show the Americans that we prefer their gas to any other ," Oleksandr Kharchenko agrees with this approach. " However, from an energy point of view, buying LNG , especially on a long-term contract, from terminals on the east coast of the US is now profitable. They can definitely allocate 1.5 to 2 billion cubic meters to us."
There should also be no problems with the delivery of gas to Ukraine from sea terminals in Poland or elsewhere, despite the "bottlenecks" in the gas transportation systems of some European countries (including Poland).
"Most of the "pumping" from the terminal to Ukraine is not physical pumping ," the expert explains. " Usually it is a swap agreement between companies, one of which brought LNG to the terminal, and the other, which has some volume near the border with Ukraine. As a result, gas appears where it is needed."