The topic of elections keeps popping up in the Ukrainian information space in unison with geopolitical statements. And although the security situation does not yet allow for the physical holding of any elections, preparations for them are underway. "Apostrophe" decided to find out which political forces are working with Ukrainians living abroad.
In the first half of the 2010s, Ukraine lost about 500,000 people every year. Before the full-scale invasion, from 2011 to 2020, 2.6 million Ukrainian citizens left Ukraine and did not return. If until February 24, 2022, the outflow was mainly driven by economic factors, then after that - security factors. According to the estimates of the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), as of the end of November 2024, 5.2 million Ukrainians are abroad due to the war. Most of them are adult women (44% of all refugees abroad, the share of adult men - 27%, children - under 18 - 29%). They are, of course, unevenly distributed. In Germany - 1.2 million people, in Poland - 988 thousand, in the Czech Republic - 385 thousand. According to a survey conducted in November-December 2024, which is cited by the CES, 20% of Ukrainians definitely plan to return, 23% - probably. Moreover, the longer the war lasts, the fewer Ukrainians intend to return. The reason is that they have practically reached the level of well-being abroad that they had before the start of the full-scale war. “ This is facilitated by the success of refugees in finding work abroad and the measures of support and integration of Ukrainian refugees carried out by foreign governments. All this makes the return of refugees to Ukraine less likely ,” the CES explained.
“ If we recall the previous elections at polling stations abroad, which are opened at Ukrainian diplomatic institutions, only 5% of those Ukrainians who were registered voted ,” political scientist Andriy Zolotaryov tells Apostrophe.
Since a significant part of Ukrainians abroad do not associate their future with their homeland, they will probably not be interested in participating in the election of government in Ukraine.
“ Polls are not conducted abroad very often, but I can say that even those who are polled there, most of them are so rooted in those societies that even in the event of readiness for elections, the majority does not show a high willingness to go vote, especially if the infrastructure is not created. Because if there is no online voting or other forms, there will be few polling stations, people simply will not physically go and vote ,” Anton Hrushetsky, executive director of KIIS, explains to the publication.
Active registration as a solution
Despite the impossibility of organizing voting for all voters at existing embassies and consulates, the Central Election Commission does not support electronic or postal voting. Instead, they are working on the idea of active registration. It provides that those Ukrainians who wish to vote abroad must notify us in advance. This will allow creating additional polling stations outside embassies and consulates. However, the implementation of the idea involves changes to the legislation, since the current framework does not allow for the deployment of polling stations outside embassies and consulates. “ This mechanism has been worked out by a working group in the CEC and agreed at a working meeting of the CEC. Currently, all proposals for legislation are being systematized, after which they will be transferred to the Verkhovna Rada, namely the relevant committee, for further consideration by legislators ,” CEC member Serhiy Postivy told Apostrophe.
“ Preparation of legislation for the first post-war elections has been going on for a long time. “Since 22, it seems, since April, a group was created. I was then a member and am a member of part of this group that was developing proposals regarding post-war electoral legislation ,” People’s Deputy Oleg Dunda tells “Apostrophe.” “ But as of today, not a single proposal for discussion has acquired the status of a law, and there is not even a corresponding legislative initiative, a corresponding bill. Therefore, these are only proposals, discussions, debates .”
The People's Deputy denied the discussion on depriving men who fled abroad from mobilization from the right to vote. “ It is impossible to do this, because there is a Constitution. If we want to restrict someone from doing something, then, accordingly, we need to make amendments to the Constitution. It is impossible to make amendments to the Constitution during martial law, so it is not even worth considering it ,” he emphasized. He explains the slowness of the development of changes to the electoral legislation by two reasons: “ Here the question arises, firstly, under what conditions the elections will be held and, secondly, in what condition the state will be in to hold them. And, accordingly, post-war electoral legislation will be made .”
The very “purity” of holding elections abroad raises doubts. “ Now we have 6-7 million Ukrainians [abroad] and it is almost impossible to technically organize their voting… There is a danger that the votes of Ukrainians abroad can be used as a gateway for fraud. Precisely because it is practically impossible to control who voted and how, and in what quantity, any number can be drawn there ,” says Zolotaryov.
He also draws attention to the fact that men refuse to register at diplomatic institutions, “remembering that questions may arise regarding their military registration.” “ Most likely, this will work to reduce the number of those who will have the desire to vote ,” the source added.
According to Andriy Zolotarev, the creation of the Ministry of National Unity headed by Oleksiy Chernyshov signals the authorities' desire to work with the foreign electorate. " The authorities will not remain aloof from several million Ukrainians who are abroad ," he argues. " First of all, in the EU countries. Of course, those Ukrainians who ended up in Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan are excluded ."
Minister Chernyshov meets with the Ukrainian community abroad, visits centers providing assistance to temporarily displaced persons from Ukraine. In addition, the department is creating Unity Hubs, designed to provide cultural, educational, social and administrative support to the Ukrainian community, as well as facilitate the return of Ukrainians home.
Now the authorities essentially have a monopoly on communication with Ukrainian refugees. “ The fact is that in order to work with Ukrainians abroad, you need too much organizational, financial, and informational capabilities, which most political parties do not have now. They almost do not work in Ukraine, they are almost in a semi-comatose state. And what about working throughout Europe? This requires personnel, sources of funding, and where will they come from? That is why, in fact, such capabilities, almost monopoly capabilities, are now in the hands of the authorities ,” the political scientist believes.
What are the current moods among Ukrainians abroad? “ If we talk about the attitude towards the current government, [it is] quite ambiguous. There is a significant part, even more than in Ukraine, of those who currently support the president. But there is a very large percentage of those who are not satisfied, who are against it. And they may turn out to be much more active than those who support the president ,” Zolotaryov comments.
Anton Hrushetsky has a different opinion. “ In general, according to many of the sentiments of those who retain an interest in events in Ukraine and their emotional connection with Ukraine, their sentiments on social issues are quite close to those of people living in Ukraine ,” he says. “ Of course, there are differences, but not as radical as one might imagine .”