On July 12, Poland held its second round of the presidential elections. This year’s campaign proved one of the most controversial ones since the country's independence. National exit polls showed the incumbent president of the country, Andrzej Duda, winning 51% of the vote, while the opposition candidate Rafal Trzaskowski received 49%. The National Electoral Commission said Mr. Duda had won 51.2% of the votes. Apostrophe analyzed the specifics of the Polish election, as well as its effect on Warsaw's relations with Moscow, the Western world, and Ukraine.
COVID-19 adjustments
Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, election rules changed several times. For example, at the end of March, Poland adopted new amendments to the Electoral Code, allowing people to vote by mail. The first round of the election, in turn, was postponed from May 10 to June 28. At the same time, the Civic Platform party nominated another candidate. Malgorzata Chidava-Blonskaia was replaced by active, optimistic, and more charismatic Trzaskowski.
On the voting day, everyone had to adhere to social distancing rules, resulting inlong queues. Wearing masks was also mandatory.
In the first round, none of the candidates scored over 50%. Duda had 43.5%, and Trzaskowski received 30.46% of the vote. In the second round, Trzaskowski had better results. The difference between the candidates turned out to be slim, which does not exclude litigation.
A narrow victory
The National Electoral Commission said Mr. Duda had won 51.2% of the votes.
However, as they say in Poland, Mr. Trzaskowski has recently become a trend. The number of his supporters has significantly grown. At the same time, bookmakers were giving Duda the best chance of winning. Sociologists and analysts, in turn, made a bet on Trzaskowski. One thing everyone agreed on was that the difference between the two candidates would be narrow. Perhaps, even several tens of thousands of votes.
"If Duda wins, the status quo will remain. This is not very good for Ukraine, as Poland has ruined relations with all of its neighbors. It can only get worse," Michel Broniatowski, the editor-in-chief of Politico in Poland, told Apostrophe.
He explained that Duda and the government formed by his party, Law and Justice, are not focused purely on foreign policy but rather on Poland’s domestic issues. At the same time, both the current president of Poland and his colleagues are nurturing the confrontation with Ukraine, Russia, and Germany.
“Nationalist decisions of the current leadership, made under slogans like "beat the German” and «they (Germans) want to destroy us”, allow for the mobilization of population akin to what Putin had after the annexation of Crimea,” Broniatowski explains. “The same is true for Ukraine. In Poland, there is no constructive foreign policy aimed at the East now," he adds.
"In Poland, there are people who still do not like Germany after World War II. In addition, Berlin often fails to hear its allies. It's always beneficial to show your opponents as a pro-German party," Michal Potocki, a political journalist for Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, commented.
In Poland, it is the Foreign Ministry and not the President that is fully responsible for foreign policy. The President only appoints ambassadors to other countries.
"However, the current foreign minister is nobody. Duda did not even take him on the trip to Washington D.C.," Broniatowski added.
"If Duda wins the Polish election and Donald Trump wins in the U.S., their strong ties will remain. Law and Justice will continue to be a very pro-American party, even if in some situations it will oppose Europe," Potocki said.
What can we expect from Trzaskowski?
Trzaskowski was a member of the European Parliament of the VII convocation; he’s fluent in French and English, and he also speaks Russian.
"He would have better relations with Paris and Berlin, which is indirectly important for Ukraine as well. If there is something like a takeover of Ukrainian boats in the Black Sea, Poland will have more opportunities to lobby in major European countries in Ukrainian interest," Potocki said.
“It seems to me that Warsaw-Kyiv relations would be more civilized under Trzaskowski," Broniatowski said. “I cannot imagine that he wouldn’t have gone to the inauguration of President Zelensky, as Duda did. There is a million - and some say two million - Ukrainians in Poland. Not having relations with Kyiv is worse than stupidity."
"Duda has a more principal position on UPA, Volyn tragedy, etc. Trzaskowski would have been softer. Zelensky, however, has no great interest in history, so this topic has been removed from the agenda so far," Potocki stated.
At the same time, both candidates support Ukraine in its struggle against the Russian aggression, promote economic cooperation and the simplification of conditions for workers.
As for relations with Russia, it is impossible to make significant improvements until the Kremlin decided so – regardless of who wins. For example, Trzaskowski said he considers Nord Stream-2 a dangerous initiative for Warsaw.
One of the main conflicts between Duda and Europe now is the judicial reform, which the EU considers an attempt to destroy democracy. Trzaskowski could put a veto on the populist reforms of the Law and Justice party, the experts interviewed by Apostrophe said.
The confrontation will also unfold for the right to build relations with the West. Unlike Duda, Trzaskowski talks about Germany as a neighbor and a member of NATO. He calls for an alliance with Berlin, which would help to lobby Polish interests.
Polish society is divided. And it's dangerous.
The results of the presidential elections indicate a high polarization of Polish society. However, a victory with a result of about 50% is not news for Poland.
Like with any election coming to an end, Poland may face political rallies and clashes, and if the winner gets only a few hundred thousand more votes, there may be a lawsuit between the candidates, Potocki said.