The winner of the US presidential election has not yet been determined. However, Joe Biden is increasing his Electoral College lead in the presidential race. President Trump, in turn, can only hope for a fantastic comeback in order to secure reelection. With razor-thin margins and Donald Trump's unproven allegations of mass falsifications, the United States could find itself in a protracted political crisis.
The confrontation between Trump and Biden will lead to extremely negative consequences for the United States. Most experts agree that even if the country emerges from the political crisis by the end of the year, the current election "spectacle" will weaken US democracy, as well as its role and influence on the international arena.
Challenging circumstances
"The most important thing to note at this point is how close the election is. In the disputed 2000 presidential election, it all came down to one state: Florida. This year, we have razor-thin margins in about a half-dozen states, which, if overturned by newly counted votes or by legal challenges, could spell the difference in this election. This is the worst-case scenario. No matter which candidate wins, many of his supporters will believe that the election was stolen from him and that we will now have an illegitimate president. Of course, the losing candidate has a great deal of influence over his supporters and he could do a great service to the nation by accepting defeat graciously, as Al Gore did in 2000," Christopher Devine, an American political scientist and associate professor at the University of Dayton, asserted.
According to the current vote count, Biden’s victory is the most likely outcome following the election. At the same time, if elected, Biden would have to work with the fierce Republican opposition in the House of Representatives and, especially, the Senate. He would also have to deliver on one of his key campaign promises, uniting the nation that has become greatly polarized and divided.
Unfortunately for Democrats, the anticipated "blue wave" has never arrived. While they still hold out hope to flip the Senate - with two congressional elections headed for a runoff - it is not a secured option. Despite retaining a majority, the Democratic Party has also lost several seats in the House of Representatives.
Another important point is the protests that have surged in the United States, calling for equality, the abolition of police violence and racism. If Trump loses and refuses to concede, this segment of American voters is likely to take to the streets to support former Vice President Biden.
However, the incumbent may also radicalize the situation. Trump supporters, who are often armed and pose a threat to other demonstrators and bystanders, could protest "mass falsifications" and "fraud". Earlier this year, a teenager (17-year-old boy) armed with a firearm arrived in the city of Kenosha, where a peaceful rally was held. He opened fire in the middle of the protest. Two people were killed.
Kyle Rittenhouse
According to Mia Willard, a foreign policy expert at the International Centre for Policy Studies, "Donald Trump succeeds in destabilizing and polarizing the country far more effectively than potential foreign interventions. As the votes are being counted, the president falsely and prematurely declares himself a winner of the "legitimate" presidential race. His unsupported allegations of voter fraud further divide society and inflame the situation, thus hindering the fundamental trust Americans - unlike Ukrainians - have in their electoral system. In his fear of concession, Donald Trump is ready to undermine the country he's supposed to lead."
It's worth noting that President Trump's lawsuits are yet to see any luck. The president, at the same time, vigorously tweets, "STOP THE COUNT!". A series of TV channels stopped the air of one of Trump's press conferences on Friday.
Trump and inadequacy
Vice President Biden had hoped to secure a much more convincing victory than the one he might claim. Current razor-thin margins between the candidates will have serious consequences for the country.
One of the main problems is that during the campaign, Biden and the Democrats stressed that all Trump's initiatives throughout his term led the country in the wrong direction. As it turns out, like in the Soviet film "Kin-za-za", "but the people like it." Nearly 70 million voters (the third greatest result in the history of US elections) voted for Trump. Consequently, a true challenge will be explaining to voters who were satisfied with the policy of hard protectionism under the Republican president that an akin policy was inadequate. Biden will have to carefully deliver his message, uniting rather than dividing Americans.
In addition, Biden will have to stabilize the situation under the complex configuration of the Senate and strong opposition of Republicans in the House of Representatives. The Supreme Court is also led by a Republican majority. Throw a global pandemic in the mix, and it makes up for a challenging start of the presidency.
The United States and the World
Another key question: what will be Washington's foreign policy after Trump's departure? He did not recognize many international agreements and alliances, trying to either withdraw from them or bypass them by concluding bilateral agreements with countries of his interest. A dealer by nature, experts say, Trump does not understand the concepts like "the American president is a symbol of the free West." For him, things are categorized into "profitable" and "unprofitable", including international agreements and alliances.
Donald Trump
“I'd expect President Biden to conduct foreign policy more like President Obama - less belligerent language and less sword-rattling, and an emphasis on multi-lateral action. Biden would be easier than Trump to predict, I think,” Grant Reeher, professor of political science and director of the School of Citizenship and Public Policy. D. Maxwell at the University of Syracuse, told Apostrophe.
The benefit-or-profit approach has led to a series of rather odd - according to many experts - choices in foreign policy.
“I haven’t seen Trump put pressure on dictators in Russia or North Korea. I would expect him to continue to cozy up to dictators he admires—including Putin, Orban, and Erdogan. As for Venezuela and Iran, it is hard to say. When it comes to Biden, I would expect that if he wins we would see a more consistent approach where the administration considers authoritarians across the world as hostile to US interests," Chris Edelson, an associate professor at American University and an expert in national security, stated.
However, this rollback is likely to be offset.
"With Biden's victory, the United States will seek to regain its leadership in the international arena. America will return to the Paris Climate Agreement and other initiatives to combat climate change," Mia Willard said.
"The US fundamental policy toward Ukraine will not change,” she continued. "Ukraine's top officials vigorously strived to remain neutral, avoiding any perceived interference in the US presidential election. The individuals who did attempt interference do not represent official Ukraine; they were already sanctioned by the US and had their visas revoked. In the United States, their actions are perceived as a part of Russia's disinformation campaign, as American governmental officials said in a series of statements."
At the same time, Reeher believes that Ukraine should not expect a drastic increase in assistance. “The controversy surrounding his son might make him wary of helping Ukraine, any more than what would be considered "normal." He probably would not want to create the appearance that he was "rewarding" Ukraine somehow. I'd say he would want to keep it in line with the past, whatever that is. I'm sure the Republicans and the press will be watching this closely if he's president", the expert assessed.
Willard, in turn, stressed that Ukraine should continue nurturing its relationship with the United States, at the same time retaining "the bipartisan support of our strategic partner." Although it is unknown whether the Biden administration would have the US join the Normandy format, Biden did voice his intention to expand the Obama administration's initiatives to assist Ukraine.
