The cautious stance of Washington towards Kremlin aggression in Ukraine has catalyzed the formation of a new "axis of evil" comprising Iran, Russia, and the DPRK, with China's looming influence seeking to challenge the prevailing American-centric international order. On April 14, Israel, in collaboration with allies, effectively intercepted nearly all of the 300 missiles and drones launched by Iran beyond its borders. While underscoring the robustness of joint Israeli-US anti-missile defenses, the attack aligns with the broader strategy of the emerging axis to undermine American global influence. The 'Apostrophe' article examines the potential involvement of Russian and Chinese interests in Iran's attack, and its implications for US assistance to Ukraine.
They fought back, but...
As reported by CNN, the recent operation involved the US Navy, utilizing the Aegis system deployed on two destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean, successfully intercepting at least three ballistic missiles. Additionally, American military aircraft contributed to the interception, although specific deployment locations remain undisclosed, leaving open the possibility of actions from both aircraft carriers and land bases.
CNN highlights Israel's proactive efforts in developing and deploying its anti-missile defense systems, geared towards safeguarding against diverse threats such as ballistic and cruise missiles. The Israel Missile Defense Organization (IMDO) underscores the significance of the Iron Dome system within this defense framework. Comprising missile detection radars and an automated threat assessment control system, Iron Dome efficiently discerns genuine threats. Upon detection, it promptly launches missiles to intercept incoming projectiles mid-air.
The David's Sling system, jointly developed by Israeli company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and American defense concern Raytheon, serves as a defense against medium and short-range missiles. It employs kinetic interceptors, namely the Stunner and SkyCeptor, to neutralize targets within a range of up to 300 meters. Additionally, Israel utilizes the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, developed in collaboration with the U.S. Arrow 2, an enhanced version of the U.S. Patriot system, intercepts missiles at altitudes of up to 51.5 kilometers and ranges of up to 90 kilometers, utilizing fragmentation warheads. Arrow 3 utilizes hit-to-kill technology to eliminate ballistic missiles in space, preventing their entry into the atmosphere.
CNN also mentions that Israel possesses advanced fighter jets, including the F-35I, which have been utilized to destroy unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles.
The primary question arising from Iran's large-scale attack on Israel is both simple and profoundly unsettling: Has the Third World War already begun, or not yet?
‘Talks of World War III aren't on the table yet, but the trend is worrying due to deepening ties between Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea. Beijing's stance, toughening in recent weeks, is notable. Tehran and Beijing have drawn lessons from the Kremlin's aggression in Ukraine, observing the US reaction closely. If the US doesn't show strength now, China may start testing Taiwan's defenses soon, potentially sparking a global conflict,’says Andrii Ryzhenko, captain of the 1st rank, deputy chief of staff of the Navy of Ukraine in 2004-2020, in a commentary for Apostrophe.
The Fallout of US Indecision
The stance of the United States unfortunately mirrors the familiar duality experienced by Ukrainians. While the White House is prepared to aid in repelling the attack, it is reluctant to endorse "further escalation," particularly in scenarios necessitating direct involvement of American troops in combat.
CNN's report highlighted that US President Joe Biden affirmed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States would abstain from engaging in offensive operations against Iran. This phone conversation between the two leaders took place right after Iran attacked Israel.
As reported by CNN, during the conversation, President Biden characterized the outcome of the attack as a victory for Israel, deeming Iran's actions largely ineffective. A senior administration official indicated that over 100 ballistic missiles launched by Iran were intercepted successfully. Consequently, no cruise missile reached its intended target, and significant infrastructure remained undamaged.
According to a recent article in The New York Times, Israel plans to collaborate with its allies in addressing Iranian aggression, as reported by an Israeli official.
‘There are two potential courses of action: firstly, the US may opt for a response similar to its actions following Hamas attacks on Israel, providing support to allies with aircraft carriers and air cover to defend against missiles and drones. Alternatively, a less favorable option for the US is to refrain from taking any action due to concerns about "further escalation." Given Jake Sullivan's cautious approach, this latter possibility cannot be discounted,’ expert in American Studies Oleksandr Kraiev tells Apostrophe.
Overall, it is telling that after careful consideration, the Israeli government opted against a retaliatory strike. This indicates their understanding that the United States would not support their strikes against Iran.
A chanse for package
The recent strike on Israel raises questions about whether Congress will accelerate the passage of a longstanding aid package for Ukraine. Early indications suggest some clarity on this matter. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a far-right House member with ties to the Trump camp, suggests that the US might consider a military aid package for both Ukraine and Israel in response to the Iran attack. She is known for her ardent anti-Ukrainian position, Kremlin propaganda dumps like RIA Novosti very often quote Taylor Green.
Marjorie Taylor Greene has revealed that Iran issued warnings of impending attacks on Israel. House Speaker Mike Johnson intends to introduce a joint aid package for Ukraine and Israel, but Greene opposes this approach. She advocates for splitting the aid into separate bills to prevent political manipulation within Congress.
The politician further alleges that Johnson could leverage Israel's backing to fund Ukraine, mirroring past instances of bundling disparate political matters into a single bill. Generally, die-hard Trump supporters vehemently oppose bipartisan initiatives, viewing them as a political maneuver favoring Joe Biden exclusively.
‘An escalation with Iran could potentially prompt the House of Representatives to pass the Ukraine aid package, as it presents an opportunity for compromise. Previously, some congressmen were hesitant to support the Ukraine package due to concerns about the Israel aid package, and vice versa. However, this barrier seems to have diminished, allowing for smoother progress on the aid package for Ukraine,’ Kraiev noted.
Cautious optimism arises from a recent phone call between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders, during which it was agreed that military aid would be provided to both Israel and Ukraine. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer confirmed that consensus was reached on this matter.
How the new 'Axis' works
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Iran's attack tactics bear resemblance to Russian operations in Ukraine. These operations aim to exploit weaknesses in Western air defense and missile defense systems.
Iran is leveraging a combination of missiles and drones, drawing from Russian and Houthi tactics, to enhance their attacks against Israel and the United States. These efforts aim to disorient and disrupt Israeli defense systems.
ISW highlights Iran's expanding technical collaboration with Russia, North Korea, and China, facilitating the exchange of technology and expertise. This cooperation enhances Iran's capacity to counter Western defense systems. The increasing interaction among these nations strengthens their ability to conduct coordinated actions against Western states.
The Kremlin is actively advocating for a ‘multipolar world order,’ a concept promoted during the recent visit of Russia's ‘Ribbentrop,’ Sergei Lavrov, to Beijing. Discussions centered on jointly opposing what they perceive as Western efforts for ‘double containment.’ Russia and China are intensifying their contacts and bolstering their strategic partnership, causing apprehension in the West and resulting in sanctions against both nations. Although reports indicate China's increased willingness to support Russia in Ukraine, it maintains the upper hand in the relationship and does not seek an unconditional partnership, which concerns the Kremlin.
‘It's possible that Lavrov discussed Iran's potential future attack on Israel in China. Beijing, keen to observe Western reactions, likely didn't oppose such an attack. If the US and its allies don't demonstrate resolve now, opting for half-hearted measures, the world could edge closer to a global conflict,’ Andrii Ryzhenko concludes.
