On January 15, Donald Trump secured a decisive victory in the Republican presidential caucuses in Iowa, marking the commencement of the extended primary party election process. Iowa's caucuses kick off this months-long journey, culminating in the Republican and Democratic party conventions in July and August. While winning Iowa does not guarantee candidacy, early indicators suggest Trump as the frontrunner in primary odds according to bookmakers. Despite Iowa's preliminary nature, and fact that the winners of the caucuses in Iowa did not become the candidates of the two main parties for president, Trump leads betting markets, holding a slight edge over Biden in potential presidential rematch odds. Explore Trump's prospects in the primaries and his chances of reclaiming the U.S. presidency in the Apostrophe article.
Bookmakers favor Trump
The state of Iowa traditionally held the first vote to determine the politician who will represent the Republicans in the race for the main seat in the White House this fall. It has disclosed the following results: Donald Trump secured 51% of the vote, while competitors Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley garnered 21% and 19%, respectively.
Notably, Vivek Ramaswamy, the businessman of Indian origin and ideologically aligned contender closest to Trump, has declared his withdrawal from the elections. Furthermore, he expressed his endorsement of Trump's candidacy in the upcoming New Hampshire primaries.
Trump swiftly expressed being "encouraged" and "very pleased" by his Iowa caucuses triumph. Bookmakers share this sentiment, displaying unwavering confidence in Trump's victory in the primaries. The betting company Bet365 offers odds of 1.10 for Trump, reflecting a probability of 90.9%.
Nikki Haley stands out as Trump's primary contender, with odds set at 9.00. Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis holds a quoted value of 15.00 in betting markets.
However, bettors are not uniformly backing Trump. Oddschecker reports that 38.54% of total bets on the Republican elections favor him. Trump shares the top spot with Nikki Haley, who also commands 38.54%. Withdrawn candidate Vivek Ramaswamy holds 11.46%, while Ron DeSantis follows with 6.25%.
Donald Trump holds a commanding 1-to-16 lead at the Stake bookmaker, significantly outpacing his main rivals, Haley and DeSantis.
‘The Iowa caucus outcomes underscore the high enthusiasm among Trump supporters for the impending election, highlighting a notable lack of inspiration among DeSantis and Haley supporters. The data indicates a turnout significantly below expectations,’ political scientist-American Oleksandra Filipenko noted in a comment. She cited Haley's third-place finish in Iowa as the main surprise, as she was leading in the polls.
Notably, bookmakers universally favor Trump's potential victory if he proceeds to the general elections after the primaries. William Hill provides odds of 2.10, reflecting a 47.6% probability. Conversely, Joe Biden's win is offered at 3.00, with odds implying a 33.3% chance for the incumbent U.S. president.
It іs worth mentioning that Nikki Haley, with odds at 8.00, Gavin Newsom at 10.00, and Michelle Obama at 12.00, have also secured positions within the top 5.
Betting trends strongly favor Trump, with 58.33% of bookmaker clients placing their bets on him. In contrast, only 16.67% back Joe Biden, and 6.25% support Nikki Haley.
Victory is not assured
Political scientists, despite acknowledging significant support for Trump among his base, diverge from bookmakers, expressing skepticism about Trump's potential success in both the primaries and the presidential election.
‘Premature to declare Trump's primary victory; Iowa alone is insufficient with numerous states pending. The Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's appeal against the candidacy ban in Colorado will significantly influence the trajectory,’ political technologist, director of the Situation Modeling Agency Vitaly Bala says in a comment to Apostrophe.
‘I would not place a bet on Trump without reservations. It's premature to anticipate his triumph in the primaries as he faces an ongoing appeal process in the Supreme Court. Additionally, with 91 pending criminal cases against him, the evolution of these legal matters will significantly shape the course of the election campaign,’ - the professor of the Institute of International Relations of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Doctor of Political Sciences, Americanist Serhiy Halaka comments to Apostrophe.
Analysts suggest that Trump's rivals in the primaries in Iowa may draw insights from his performance in Iowa and adjust their strategies accordingly.
‘The outcome hinges on how Trump's rivals navigate internal competition. Of particular interest is Nikki Haley's ability to close the gap with Donald; she stands a chance,’ Bala suggests.
‘The next caucuses will be held in New Hampshire and it is important here how Desantis and Haley will show themselves. The gap between them is small, Trump may lose votes there,’ Halaka added.
Analysts suggest Trump's destiny could be determined by late February or early spring, coinciding with the Supreme Court session and crucial Republican state caucuses.
‘The Eastern and Western coastal regions lean anti-Trump, contrasting with pro-Trump sentiments in the central states,’ Halaka explains. ‘In addition, Trump has his own kind of electorate. It comprises individuals with lower education levels, legal issues, and a religious rural demographic’.
Vitaly Bala aligns with Halaka, stating, ‘І think everything will be clear at the end of February.’
Experts suggest that Trump's candidacy may hinge on the situation in Ukraine
‘Much will depend on the situation in Ukraine. Regrettably, it appears that the Ukrainian government is aligning with Trump and working against Biden, as evidenced by the election of the head of the Accounting Chamber and statements from the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba,’ Vitaly Bala notes.
‘In my view, Ukrainian diplomacy and the government's actions seem to be working against Biden. The statements from our Foreign Ministry, suggesting negotiations with Trump, are perplexing. Trump holds an overtly anti-Ukrainian stance and is unlikely to be favorable to our interests,’ Halaka believes.
Nevertheless, the political science expert asserts that even if the Republicans do not endorse Trump as their presidential candidate, he will still pursue the election.
‘Trump, viewed as an unpredictable populist, might run independently if not nominated by the Republican Party. Given his electoral core, this move could jeopardize Republican chances in the election. However, it is premature to draw conclusions; an intriguing campaign lies ahead. Positive outcomes are hoped for, but uncertainties persist,’ Halaka concludes.
