In the upcoming European Parliament elections, significant political shifts are anticipated for June, potentially marking a pivotal moment for the continent. Right-wing factions are projected to gain traction, presenting both opportunities and challenges for Ukraine. For further insights, refer to the "Apostrophe" report.
The importance of the European Parliament
Although the European Parliament's authority in foreign and security matters is limited, MEPs occasionally make symbolic gestures to impact key European processes. A recent notable instance was last week when the European Parliament withheld approval on EU Council funding until member states decide on providing Ukraine with extra Patriot systems.
Actually, the European Parliament primarily serves two key functions: electing the head of the European Commission and approving the budget of the European Union.
‘The outcome of the European Parliament elections will directly impact the composition of the future European Commission and determine which major political group in Europe will lead and shape the agenda,’ Ivan Nahornyak, adviser to the Center for Economic Recovery, tells Apostrophe.
So the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen for a new term and the composition of her team largely hinge on the MEPs, who must approve new nominations by a majority of votes this fall.
European Parliament deputies are elected through a proportional system, with parties presenting lists in each country. Following election, MEPs align into factions, primarily based on ideology. For instance, German center-right CDU/CSU may collaborate with Poland's ‘Civic Platform’ led by Donald Tusk, while sometimes opposing the German Social Democrats or Poland's ‘Law and Justice’ party.
Currently, the European Parliament's primary political groups include the center-right European People's Party (EPP), center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and centrist Renew Europe (RE). They've formed a coalition in the current term, albeit a fragile one, often requiring involvement from the Greens (G/EFA) and occasionally from the right.
Polls suggest that the current coalition members may experience some setbacks, with right-wing factions expected to gain strength. The extent of this shift hinges on the upcoming weeks' developments and the intensity of election campaigns, as well as the potential for external intervention.
How to sale right-wing wave in Europe
In the current session, the right is represented by two factions: the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) and the far-right "Identity and Democracy" (ID). Notable members of the latter include the radical Alternative for Germany (AfD).
The surge in popularity of the right in Europe can be attributed to various factors, primarily changes in people's everyday lives. These include the impacts of climate change, rising immigration levels, and security destabilization in Europe, as highlighted by Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies.
‘People sense the world is evolving. Doubt in their own political system, the validity of European integration, of the Western alliance fuels anti-establishment parties. They offer an alternative system promising stability or efficiency. The convergence of several crises, including the emergence of artificial intelligence, generates uncertainty about the future, potentially leading to panic. Right-wing populists exploit these emotions,' the expert says.
Certainly, each country faces its unique circumstances and varying levels of unresolved issues.
‘There are countries that will vote for non-system politicians to a greater extent than others. I expect, for example, this to happen quite consistently in Germany, to happen in France, to maintain a high degree of support in Italy. And if we move away from Western Europe, we might see, let's say, this, let's say, to grow also in Poland, for example. To some extent, you might expect this also to happen in Scandinavia, although at the lower level’, Dr. Stefano Braghiroli from the Johan Skytte Institute for Political Studies at the University of Tartu emphasizes in a conversation with Apostrophe.
Moreover, the right holds divergent views on the threats to Europe, attitudes toward Russia, and even among themselves. Hence, this fragmentation within right-wing groups presents extensive opportunities.
‘The so-called "Swedish Democrats" or "Brothers of Italy" do support Ukraine. While ‘Alternative for Germany’ stands out as one of the most radical right-wing parties and a prominent pro-Russian entity in the EU. Even Marine Le Pen has voiced condemnation of the Russian war in Ukraine. However, the German party struggles to shift its pro-Russian stance, which may pose a challenge,’ Umland noted.
Therefore, special attention should be paid to those right-wingers who understand the threat from Russia.
‘This group of rightists, in essence, refrains from actively harming Ukraine and, at best, can even bolster the narratives advocated by Ukraine within the European Union. I mean the necessity of increased defense spending, readiness against potential Russian provocations, and assuming Europe’s greater responsibility for continental security. Conversely, more liberal groups in the European Parliament are cautious about such defense reinforcements,’ Nahornyak stresses.
This situation potentially introduces communication challenges, as the involvement of multiple groups in negotiations complicates the search for common ground.
Ukrainian interest
Another aspect of the European Parliament's operations pertains to its daily activities, such as voting on resolutions and utilizing the Parliament as a platform for discussions. Ukraine has established methods of communication with MEPs that facilitate these processes.
‘For instance, my acquaintance, formerly affiliated with the European conservatives' political group, is now running for EP in Poland and could potentially secure a seat in the European Parliament. Naturally, I will endeavor to maintain communication with him and leverage our relationship to advance our interests, as he holds a favorable stance towards Ukraine,’ People's Deputy, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Foreign Policy and Interparliamentary Cooperation Oleksandr Merezhko says in a comment to "Apostrophe".
According to him, there is active collaboration between separate committees of the Verkhovna Rada and the European Parliament committee, along with visits by MEPs to Ukraine. As for dealing with the ‘radicals,’ there is a strategy in place.
‘On one hand, it's essential to take a firm stance if they exhibit pro-Russian sentiments or promote Russian narratives. On the other hand, maintaining some level of communication with them may help mitigate the potential harm they could inflict,’ Merezhko notes.
We must also consider another consequence of the upcoming elections: the potential shift in the stance of mainstream politicians.
‘Oddly enough, the elections to the European Parliament can even become a positive factor. Parties will exhibit support for Ukraine not only due to ideological convictions but also as a strategic move to garner electoral backing. For instance, consider Boris Pestorius, the Defense Minister of Germany. He has adopted a notably pro-Ukrainian stance, particularly within his Social Democratic Party. Interestingly, he has emerged as the most popular politician in Germany, surpassing his formal superior and the leader of the Social Democrats, Olaf Scholz,’ Andreas Umland concludes.
