Ahead of the predetermined ‘presidential elections’ in Russia in 2024, the Russian president's administration, the government, and a legion of television propagandists have intensified efforts to rally support for Vladimir Putin's bid for a fifth presidential term. The elections, slated for March 17 next year, pose a formidable challenge for the Russian leadership and Putin personally. He is vigorously portraying himself as the defender of Russian ‘sovereignty’ and ‘traditional values.’ Key elements of Putin's election strategy include confronting the ‘amoral’ West and advocating for the ‘denazification’ of Ukraine. While it is expected that the Russian Central Election Commission will manipulate results favorably for Putin, the anticipated responses of the United States and major EU nations can be found in Apostrophe’s analysis.
The ways Putin flirts with the West
Analyzing the behavior of the Kremlin's television apparatus and the statements of the state-terrorist leader himself, Putin's upcoming election campaign strategy seems focused on casting him as the guardian of traditional values important to the Russian populace. The Kremlin aims to portray the dictator as a staunch and consistent opponent of the "liberal values of the West," which purportedly led to a "crisis" and "decay" in society in the United States and the EU.
This political stance has led to an escalation of administrative and propaganda pressure on public opinion, women's rights, and the LGBT community in Russia.
Vladimir Putin personally emphasizes the need to counter Western influence and uphold Russian sovereignty. He states explicitly that Russia's primary objective in its ‘special operation"’ – i.e. war in Ukraine - is the ‘denazification’ of Ukraine rather than a strategic standoff with NATO countries. This stance was reiterated during his year-end press conference in 2023, where the Russian dictator avoided addressing critical questions: when the war with Ukraine will end, as well as how the authorities plan to respond to the protests organized by wives of mobilized Russian men.
Shortly after the press conference, commonly referred to in Russia as the ‘direct line,’ Putin made an appearance on the state-run Russian propaganda TV-channel Russia 24. He asserted that Moscow purportedly has ‘absolutely no reason’ or ‘interest’ in waging war with NATO countries. However, he quickly lost composure and began issuing threats against Finland.
A crucial detail: the more the ‘pre-election campaign’ gains momentum, the more the Kremlin dictator strives to appear calm and ‘restrained’ in the eyes of the West, but this effort is faring poorly. The aggressive plans of the Russian leadership are becoming increasingly difficult to conceal, raising questions about the international recognition of the ‘legitimacy’ of Putin's elections even more acutely.
‘During the ‘direct line’ press conference and on televised platforms, Putin claims he has no intention of conflicting with the West and assures that Moscow poses no threat to NATO nations. However, within a day, he shifts his stance and issues warnings to Finland, citing ‘problems’ arising from the country's NATO affiliation. Considering the potential existence of Putin's body doubles, as indicated by our intelligence, one may ponder whether a more emotionally composed double appeared initially, with the real Putin surfacing later. While speculative, but the very fact of the presence and active use of body doubles poses the question to the West, who exactly are ‘chosen’ by the Russians’, Vitaliy Bala, head of the Situation Modeling Agency, tells to Apostrophe.
Between Iran and North Korea
It is evident that Putin is banking on winning in tightly controlled elections, while the authorities aim to paint a picture of maximum voter turnout to showcase "broad support for his actions" against Ukraine and Western nations and Russians' allegiance to the Kremlin's efforts to mold Russia into a hybrid between Iran and North Korea.
In the frames of Putin's election campaign, special attention will be paid to the construction of schools and hospitals in Russian regions, which will be presented as evidence of a certain ‘social development.’ Aggression against Ukraine and the deepening conflict with the US and the EU will be presented as a key argument for mobilizing loyal voters, who will be drawn to the elections under the slogan that only Putin can save the Russian Federation from the ‘destructive influence’ of the West, which, as Kremlin propaganda insists, uses Ukraine as a tool to to dismantle the Russian Federation.
The Russian leadership remains unperturbed by the inconsistency of this narrative, given that Putin's specific target audience is inclined to embrace even more audacious falsehoods. This includes the assertion that the Kremlin is supposedly funneling significant funds into the ‘development’ of territories occupied since February 2022
‘The U.S. and EU will likely rejects the legitimacy of the election outcomes in Ukraine's occupied territories/ However, it's unlikely that they will treat Putin in the same manner as Lukashenko, who is not regarded as the President of Belarus by anyone in the civilized world. It is pivotal for Ukraine that official declarations emphasize that West refuse to recognize Putin's ‘elections’ in the occupied areas, adhering to the 1991 borders, which encompass Crimea. This approach aims to preempt pro-Russian narratives suggesting international acknowledgment of Crimea's de facto status’, Vitalii Bala says.
During the October meeting of the Valdai Club, the Russian dictator asserted a commitment to defending Russian traditions and culture. He accused the U.S. of seeking global dominance, expressing disapproval of the policies of European countries that allegedly abandon their Christian roots. In February, addressing the Federal Assembly, he cautioned legislators against Western ambitions to ‘put an end to Russia once and for all,’ condemning U.S. and EU policies as detrimental to family values, cultural, and national identity.
The Russian government once again exploits as a political tool its fabricated and baseless narrative of the so-called ‘gay propaganda’. This became evident on November 30 when the Russian Supreme Court declared the ‘international LGBT movement’ extremist in response to a lawsuit from the Ministry of Justice. Interestingly, the court conveniently failed to specify that no such movement actually exists.
Subsequently, the Russian Orthodox Church took up the mantle, advocating for restrictions on abortions. The leader of the Russian Church Kirill asked the State Duma to ban abortions in private clinics in November. After this Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin offered to discuss this initiative. According to Russian media reports, following such statements, private clinics in several regions of the Russian Federation ceased to offer pregnancy termination services.
Emphasis on traditional values led to the fact that persons who do not have real power in Russia, but serve to express various slanderous ideas, began to cast doubt on the desirability of Russian women pursuing higher education and building careers. Allegedly, the improvement of the demographic situation is more important for the country.
In an interview on the "Tsargrad TV" channel, known for promoting Kremlin-friendly narratives with overtly chauvinistic anti-Western sentiments and owned by Russian Orthodox oligarch Konstantin Malofeev, Russian Senator Margarita Pavlova stated in November that young people, especially women, should avoid pursuing higher education. She argued that aspirations for a career hinder childbirth. Considering similar sentiments expressed by higher-ranking Russian officials, such views may be part of a systemic information campaign.
In the summer, Russian Minister of Health Mikhail Murashko echoed similar sentiments, criticizing women consider having children only after achieving career success. Then, at the end of November, Vladimir Putin himself, effectively in a pre-election campaign mode, addressed the ‘Russian People's Council,’ expressing nostalgia for times when Russian women gave birth to more children and emphasizing the importance of restoring such traditions.
Dictator needs recognition
‘Regardless of what Putin says, it is crucial to understand that he has a singular goal – to remain in power indefinitely, rather than engage in an "existential" confrontation with the West. He may threaten NATO or, conversely, project "peacefulness" to encourage the U.S. and EU to acknowledge his "elections" and continue, even through intermediaries, negotiations with Moscow. His aim is to negotiate on his terms rather than engage in perpetual conflict. Currently, his tactical goal is to conduct "elections," secure a formal mandate, and then await the results of the U.S. presidential race. After that, Putin calculates, he can negotiate with Trump,’ political technologist Oleksii Holobutsky comment to Apostrophe.
The economic aspects of such a policy, as consistently practiced by the Kremlin, are conspicuously ignored in public discourse. In general, the financial and economic challenges faced by Russians seem to be deemed inconsequential to the popularity of the government and, specifically, Putin.
According to data from the independent Moscow-based "Levada Center," Putin's approval rating surged to 85% in November. For context, before the open invasion of Ukraine, it stood at around 69%. Previously, such North Korean-esque approval ratings for the dictator were recorded in the years 2014-2017, coinciding with the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the war in Donbas. This period was portrayed by Russian patriotic narratives as a "rise from the knees" and a supposed elevation of Russia's geopolitical status. Independent observers had previously cast doubt on the results of similar surveys, suggesting that Russians might be hesitant to provide honest responses, particularly due to fears of repercussions.
The shift to a military-centric education system, directly linked to Putin's military ‘stability,’ is underway, particularly at the secondary level, where basic military training is introduced. Additionally, a new ‘textbook’ on history, co-authored by Putin's aide Vladimir Medinsky, is being implemented. Clearly, this ‘textbook’ justifies aggression against Ukraine, fosters nostalgia for the USSR, condemns its dissolution, and criticizes the West actively.
Society, starting from its youngest members, is being conditioned to believe that Russia has consistently been in opposition to the West and that this confrontation will persist in the future. Thus, the Kremlin is establishing a propaganda and political platform in case the West criticizes or questions the outcomes of Putin's ‘elections.’
‘The reactions of the United States and leading EU countries will become clearer closer to March 2024, but there are grounds to question the legitimacy of the elections: aggression against Ukraine, holding elections in occupied territories, the absence of opposition and genuine political competition (Navalny in prison), and the exclusion of independent observers, among other factors. While there will likely be political statements and reluctance to recognize the "elections" in the occupied territories of Ukraine, the question remains whether Washington, Paris, or Berlin would risk not recognizing Putin's reelection at all. Ultimately, the calculus may be influenced by the perspective of "What difference would non-recognition really make?"’, Holubytsky concludes.
