Days after his Kremlin reappointment ceremony, Vladimir Putin made sweeping personnel changes directly linked to the war in Ukraine. On Sunday, May 12, it was announced that instead of Sergey Shoigu, the Russian leader opted to appoint First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov as Defense Minister. Simultaneously, he relieved one of the key figures in the security apparatus, Secretary of the Russian Security Council and former FSB head Nikolai Patrushev, replacing him with Shoigu. The motives behind these Kremlin upheavals and Putin's objectives are scrutinized by Apostrophe.
Tini Mini Sensation
On Sunday evening, May 12, in Russia, news emerged about personnel changes: Putin's proposed candidates for the positions of heads of several federal ministries and agencies were submitted to the Federation Council. It's absolutely clear that this is a formality: all decisions of the bunker dictator in the Russian Federation have long been imperatives and will unquestionably be implemented.
However, Putin's decisions came as somewhat of a surprise. In particular, the mini-sensation was the dismissal of Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, who had held the position since 2012.
Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defense has been rocked by scandals: on April 23, Deputy Shoigu Timur Ivanov was detained for bribery. At that time, rumors began circulating about instability under the Russian defense minister. However, it's worth noting that such rumors have circulated before, particularly after Russian forces "captured" Kyiv in three days, but Shoigu managed to stay in his position through PR and various political maneuvers. Now, Putin has decided to transfer him to the position of Secretary of the Russian Security Council.
‘Shoigu's dismissal did come as a surprise. Although rumors of his removal had been circulating for quite some time. Shoigu has been loyal to Putin and has worked closely with him all along. Now Putin has appointed him as the head of the Security Council, replacing Patrushev. And I don't think it's a dishonorable discharge. He'll just bide his time for now. This has happened before. Putin removed Shoigu from the position of Emergency Situations Minister, where he actually became infamous, and briefly sent him to work as the governor of the Moscow region. Then Shoigu was moved to the position of Defense Minister,’ former SBU employee, security expert Ivan Stupak noted in a comment to Apostrophe.
Ivan Stupak sees the reasons for Shoigu's dismissal rooted in economics.
‘Lately, Shoigu has been actively visiting defense enterprises, giving some instructions, reporting to Putin. But perhaps he couldn't handle the transition of the economy onto a military track. And the defense sector isn't performing as Putin expects. So, Belousov has been appointed in Shoigu's place,’ expert explains.
It's worth noting that Andrey Belousov has held the position of First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian government for the past four and a half years. However, what's important is that for many years he has been in Putin's inner circle, serving as his economic advisor.
Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin made the decision for the Russian Ministry of Defense to be led by a civilian because ‘the department needs to be open to innovations and advanced ideas.’ It's notable that in May 2023, as Deputy Prime Minister, Belousov personally reported to Putin about the issues with establishing a full-cycle production of drones in Russia, and he was directly involved in addressing this matter.
At the same time, according to Peskov, Shoigu will oversee the work of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation of Russia within the Security Council to integrate the economy of the security bloc into the country's economy. Peskov also announced that Chief of the General Staff of the RF Valery Gerasimov will continue his activities, ‘there are no changes planned for now.’
The mathematics of war
‘Little is known about Belousov in Ukraine. He previously served as Putin's economic advisor and was the Minister of Economic Development in Dmitry Medvedev's government. I even found an official photo: there was some gathering in the Kremlin and the late collaborator Stremausov was there. And Belousov is standing in front in the photo, with Peskov behind him. So, he has authority with Putin. Yes, he's not military. Just like Shoigu isn't military. Now Belousov is tasked with transitioning Russia's economy onto a military track,’ Stupak noted.
Political expert Yaroslav Makitra also told Apostrophe about the ‘mathematics of war’ that Putin is counting on.
‘He appointed an economist as the defence minister, regarded as one of those who shielded the Russian economy from sanctions. Evidently, the "mathematics of war" is being formed - a planned military economy. Putin can still manage the military without Shoigu - through Gerasimov. Allegations against Shoigu and a range of conflicts at the middle and higher levels could have played a role as well. Thus, tension is alleviated,’ Makitra believes.
In turn, economist Oleksiy Kushch points out that the new Minister of Defense in Russia will evidently focus on increasing the production of military equipment.
‘Andrеy Belousov is the architect of 'Putinomics' and the chief methodologist for amortizing sanctions pressure and transitioning to an economic growth phase in Russia from 2022 to 2024. Belousov's contribution to Putin lies in launching a self-renewing, multiplicative, circular model of the economy. I had previously speculated that everything was heading towards a sharp expansion of the dynamics of the Russian military-industrial complex and the growth of military production in Russia,’ Oleksiy Kushch noted in the commentary Apostrophe.
However, Belousov's economic approaches have mainly been associated with repression and pressure on businesses.
‘Unlike many other representatives of the economic bloc, Belousov is far from holding liberal views. He advocates for extensive state involvement in the economy and for strict regulation of the economy. He has the reputation of being a 'statist' - someone who primarily defends the interests of the state rather than, for example, businesses,’ says Olga Shamina, editor of the economics department of the BBC's Russian Service.
‘Interesting events are unfolding in Moscow; let's see what happens next. However, it's evident that Putin is gearing up for a prolonged war,’ summarizes Stupak.
The end of the ‘syndicate’?
However, there's another crucial factor that experts are focusing on regarding Putin's personnel decisions. This primarily concerns the resignation of Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, whom some consider one of the most autonomous "towers of the Kremlin." Interestingly, unlike most of the Russian leadership, he publicly opposed Putin's idea of attacking Ukraine at a Security Council meeting on February 21. Although he later demonstratively aligned with the bunker dictator, rumors circulated about his real position.
As Putin's ‘chatty mouth’ Peskov noted, Patrushev's transfer is referred to as ‘reassignment.’
During the preparation of the material, it became known that Putin appointed Patrushev as his assistant.
‘Patrushev, like Shoigu, has been loyal to Putin and has worked with him for a long time. This doesn't mean that Patrushev is out of favor. Putin approved Patrushev's son for the position of deputy prime minister,’ according to Ivan Stupak.
In general, the number of various relatives in the executive branch of the Russian Federation is noticeably increasing. For example, the son of one of Putin's closest associates, Yuri Kovalchuk, Boris, has become the head of the Accounts Chamber. And Putin's relative (the husband of his second cousin), Sergei Tsivilev, the governor of the Kemerovo region, becomes the head of the Ministry of Energy.
‘In fact, we're talking about a concentration of power in the hands of a few,’ notes Yaroslav Makitra.
