On the night of January 3, head of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force and Iran's top general, Qasem Soleimani, was killed in the American airstrike in Baghdad. Soleimani's death threatens a new military conflict in the Middle East.
The General's death
The airstrike aimed at eliminating Qasem Soleimani was partially provoked by anti-American protests that erupted in Iraq in the last days of 2019. On December 31, an angry crowd stormed the gates of the US Embassy in Baghdad, burning the reception building to the ground and chanting "Death to America".
The supporters of the Iranian-backed militia group Kataib Hezbollah stormed the Embassy as a response to deadly American airstrikes over the weekend.
According to Pentagon, "General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region. General Soleimani and his Quds Force were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more. He had orchestrated attacks on coalition bases in Iraq over the last several months – including the attack on December 27th – culminating in the death and wounding of additional American and Iraqi personnel. General Soleimani also approved the attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad that took place this week.
This strike was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans."
Soleimani's car
The attack on one of Iran's most powerful generals caused a serious backlash in Tehran, with thousands of mourning people attending Soleimani's funeral and yelling "Death to America". The situation fueled the tensions between the States and Iran, thus further destabilizing the region.
Iran's imminent retaliation
The airstrike was personally authorized by US President Donald Trump, who firmly stands behind his decision to eliminate Soleimani. According to the Iraqi media, the head of the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces Abu Mahdi Muhandis was killed as well.
According to the US Department of Defense statement, "At the direction of the President, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization."
It is worth noting that Lieutenant General Qasem Soleimani provided military support to Hamas and Hezbollah groups in Palestine and Lebanon, as well as played an important role in shaping the political situation in Iraq after the withdrawal of U.S. troops. In addition, Suleimani had likely helped the government of Bashar al-Assad and the Russians to turn the tide of the civil war in Syria and repel strategic cities and territories from rebel groups.
Qasem Soleimani's portrait, Iraq
For this reason, his death has already led to a series of large-scale anti-American actions in various Iranian cities, such as Arak, Bojnurd, Hamedan, Hormuzgan, Sanandaj, Semnan, Shiraz, and Yazd. Holding Soleimani's portraits in their hands, the protesters threateningly chanted "Death to America". Iranian citizens supported Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's statement, saying that Soleimani's death shall be avenged. "Brutal revenge awaits those whose hands have his and other martyrs' blood," Khamenei said, declaring a three-day mourning for the deceased general.
Ali Khamenei's statements made it clear that a new regional military conflict was brewing. Donald Trump, in turn, had only further escalated the situation, twitting that Qasem Suleimani "should have been taken out many years ago". "Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!” the president posted. He also went as far as noting that the US might target 52 Iranian sites, including those of cultural heritage, if Tehran retaliates - a threat that would imply the violation of international law.
President Trump's drastic decision and later statements have predictably provoked a negative reaction both from his opponents and other world leaders.
"No American will mourn Qasem Soleimani's passing. He deserved to be brought to justice for his crimes against American troops and thousands of innocents throughout the region. He supported terror and sowed chaos. None of that negates the fact that this is a hugely escalatory move in an already dangerous region. The Administration's statement says that its goal is to deter future attacks by Iran, but this action almost certainly will have the opposite effect. President Trump just tossed a stick of dynamite into a tinderbox," Joe Biden said in his written statement.
Will there be a war?
Iliya Kusa, an expert of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, believes that Soleimani's death has united all Iranians who are now pressing the government to retaliate. "This is exactly what Donald Trump has succeeded in, he united everyone against himself. That's why it was a strategically unsuccessful decision for the American president," Kusa said. According to the expert, Trump's move serves as an attempt to raise the president's ratings: "He launched his campaign just yesterday, meeting with voters in Florida. And here's the first step - a very bright one, designed for Trump's electorate. For right-wing Republican "hawks" with anti-Iranian sentiments and a positive attitude to the attack."
However, Iliya Kusa believes that Soleimani's death will not lead to military conflict in the entire region, nor will it lead to a new world war. "The retaliation will take the form of hybrid attacks on the US' regional allies, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other countries. Or in the form of guerrilla attacks on positions where U.S. troops are stationed, and there are many positions like that," the expert said.
The Middle East and Ukraine
No matter how the events in the Middle East unfold, this situation will only affect Ukraine if the potential conflict results in increase on oil prices or interruption of oil supplies. "It will only affect Ukraine if the world prices on oil products rise. Especially given the weakness of our economy," Iliya Kusa explained.
In his opinion, Kyiv should not assume any position on what happened because it does not matter for Ukraine. "We just have to remember that any destabilization in the Middle East is not beneficial for our country as we depend on world prices for any raw materials," the expert believes.