Russia will not be able to finance the war against Ukraine in the event of a full-blown economic crisis.
This is stated in an article by Apostrophe.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Russia will lose its share in the global economy in the coming years, and its GDP growth will slow down.
However, even in this situation, the aggressor country will be able to spend considerable funds on the war for quite some time, says Maxym Oryshchak, an analyst at the Center for Exchange Technologies (CET).
"A prolonged collapse in oil prices can change the situation," he told Apostrophe.
Vitaliy Shapran, an economist and former member of the NBU Council, also believes that even despite the deteriorating economic situation, Russia will be able to continue to finance the war, particularly by lowering social standards within the country.
"Economic shock is needed to disable their military machine by economic means - riots inside the country, URALS oil at $30-40 per barrel (currently over $75 - Apostrophe), natural disasters, crop failure, etc. A shock should lead to a dramatic change in the behavior of the population and business - this is the main tool of pressure on Russia through the economic sphere. Such shocks can be both natural (like the collapse of the USSR) and organized," the expert said in a comment to the publication.
Earlier, we wrote that Ukraine's intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are disrupting oil and product exports, affecting both international markets and domestic supplies in Russia.