I still feel a little like Alex in Wonderland being back in the US for four years. So much has changed over two decades. You have to be an engineer to turn on the television.
The politics is meaner, though the people are nice. The American made automobiles actually last past warranty. Sports though, even at the college level, is uber commercial.
People jockey for the closest parking space to the fitness club, which seems ironic. The fellow on the street doesn’t seem to know Ukraine from a Geranium plant, which is kind of sad.
Everything is super-sized, even children, which is a shame. However, families are in-and-out of those fitness clubs like factory lines at starting and quitting time—so maybe this is changing.
Each morning, though, I wake up missing Ukraine. It’s not about nostalgia. It is more the absence of white heat excitement.
Let’s face it, there’s not a wild ride at Disney World that compares to business life in Eastern Europe. But I still consider Ukraine a good investment.
No joke.
I believe Ukraine could be the equivalent of buying Apple at $10 a share in the early days. It’s a long-term hold. Sure, it’s a risk, but so is choking on Jujubes at the Rialto during a horror flick.
The country today probably has more potential than any nation in Europe with its rich, alluvial soil, vast timber reserves, natural tourist attractions, tourism wonders, plentiful mineral reserves and educated workforce.
It has fought and won its revolution for democracy. Now if it can only win the peace. This is tricky, but not impossible. The country must be willing to look to the future, not hang on the past.
But there are some ground rules for investing. When it comes to Ukraine, dive right in. The water’s fine, but watch out for a few jellyfish.
This is a country that has about 44 million people, larger than Poland. It is a nation that drinks soda pop, cleans their bathrooms and experiments with the latest electronics.
It is a consuming public. So, if you have a better mousetrap, a tastier drink or a gee-whiz gadget, you have a market for the long-term. Let’s review my rules:
1. Avoid coyote ugly — getting into bed with the wrong local business partner. This is the No. 1 miscalculation of investors in Ukraine.
- Due diligence is a must. It’s amazing how many international companies ignore this.
- Never make decisions on local partners long distance.
- Never rely solely on a word of mouth recommendation.
- Never take credentials for granted, they are often inflated.
2. Don't be a nattering nabob of negativism, to quote a line William Safire wrote for a failed vice president. Be practical, but be positive. The alternative simply is not productive.
Constantly haranguing Ukraine’s new government -- even if it deserves it -- is to join the doomsday chorus. A positive approach will open more doors.
3. Watch out for bar stool philosophers. Opinions are like, well, bald spots, most of us eventually have one.
When economic crises hit, it seems everyone at the local waterhole has an opinion on the slide of the currency. Most overstate the case, being alarmist draws a larger crowd.
4. Practice the Theory of Diminished Expectations. This won't win you any points with the folks in the boardroom back home, but in the long run, it’s smart.
Too often companies expect from governments and people in Eastern Europe what they couldn't hope to accomplish in their own countries. They rationalize this by saying the risks are greater.
Patience is a universal virtue, but in Eastern Europe wear it like a favorite old sweater.
5. Avoid attempting to fly under the radar, even though your attorney and your accountancy advised you to do so.
You can't and won't go unnoticed. If you employ people and sell a product, you're on everyone's scope from the local bad guys to government officials, which might be one and the same.
Don't be ostentatious, but do be strategic in your awareness program. Good corporate citizenship creates a reservoir of goodwill.
In summary, there is no holy writ. Surviving and thriving in risky markets is a lot like a day at the race track. If you can get around the oval in one piece, winning will take care of itself.