The parliamentary election campaign is in full swing and now there is an active search for different configurations. "Apostrophe" continues to research who with whom will go to early elections to the Verkhovna Rada.
As "Apostrophe" already reported, according to polls, three parties are likely to get to the Verkhovna Rada: "Servant of the people" of the acting President Volodymyr Zelensky, "Oppositional platform — For life", "European solidarity" of Petro Poroshenko and "Batkivshchyna". The parties "Strength and honor" of Ihor Smeshko and "Voice" of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk are on the verge of the 5% barrier.
At the same time, nobody undertakes to predict which of parties and with what percentage of support will appear in Rada. Therefore, now all political forces and their beneficiaries are engaged in active negotiations on possible configurations.
For example, according to the closed sociology, which was received by representatives of the "Petro Poroshenko Block" last week, "European solidarity" has support of about 5%, which could not please the ex-President Petro Poroshenko. And although Poroshenko's team has already carried out a certain rebranding, removed the name of the former President from the name of the party, and is going to include to the top ten a number of new faces - bloggers, as well as actress Irma Vitovska, nobody undertakes to predict that the "European solidarity" will overcome the 5% barrier.
"it seems that he publicly gets rid of toxic people in the team - from Kononenko, from Hranovskyi, but he leaves Berezenko in the position of the head of the election campaign. It's unwise. And they mainly count on Lviv region where there is covered by Sviatoslav Vakarchuk," one of people's deputies from “Petro Poroshenko Block” told to "Apostrophe".
According to "Apostrophe", until recently there were negotiations on a joint campaign with the group "Udar", but they were not successful. The parties could not agree on the list, and Klychko was dissatisfied with the quota allocated to him.
By the way, "Udar" which was going to go for autumn elections separately led by Volodymyr Klychko, according to "Apostrophe", negotiated and with Yuliia Tymoshenko about entry into the list, as well as with the new political project of the Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman. After talks with Tymoshenko, the negotiations were conducted even with the party "Ukrop".
In addition, on June 4, Klychko offered Mikheil Saakashvili who returned to Ukraine to lead the party. Saakashvili responded vaguely, saying that he "wants to address this issue openly". According to the sources in the Parliament, in this way Klychko just finally decided to break up with Poroshenko. "He was dissatisfied with the fact that the new party of Poroshenko did not agree to his terms. But Misha (Saakashvili) is being dissuaded from getting involved in this, so the negotiations are still ongoing. But "Udar" just hopes to bring to the Parliament some of majority deputies," - one of the deputies said to "Apostrophe".
Oleksandr Turchynov also will not join Poroshenko, too, although he was offered a place in the list. Conventionally the pro-Christian party, which had planned to be organized on the basis of his social organization "All-Ukrainian Convocation", before elections of the 21st of July, according to interlocutors in the environment of Turchynov, just will not have time to "get the ball rolling", therefore, it was decided to postpone this process.
“Narodnyi Front” also will not go to the Parliament. The party understands that they will not overcome the barrier. Negotiations with the party of Volodymyr Groysman also failed and the Prime Minister decided to lead his "Ukrainian strategy" on his own, although until recently they discussed with Arseniy Yatseniuk the 50/50 format of the joint campaign for the elections. But according to the sources of "Apostrophe", Yatsenyuk wanted to bring people whom Groysman considers to be toxic. "Yatseniuk wanted to take his old friend Pavlo Petrenko (Minister of Justice - "Apostrophe"), and Volodymyr Borysovych did not want to see such people in the list," the source, familiar with the negotiations, says.
Instead, the "Front" will send its majority deputies to the constituencies. But not all of them will go under the flags of the NF, some are negotiating with Yulia Tymoshenko. There are negotiations with the majority deputies of Lviv region, where Yulia Tymoshenko it is important to get good results. Earlier also there were rumors that the party leader Arseniy Yatseniuk will go to Rada on the majority district, but the party didn't confirm it. "For him it is too small, he will remain the honorary head of the party in the opposition," the interlocutor of “Apostrophe” commented.
It is likely that in the next Parliament there will be no "Radical party" of Oleh Liashko. Now "Radical party" rating is about 3%, so many "radicals" are looking for refuge in other projects or in majority districts. Quite a loud exit from the party of Ihor Mosiychuk (he hit Liashko with his cane) was an indirect confirmation of this. Liashko, according to sources, will stand on the majority district.
Difficult times have come for the party of Yulia Tymoshenko. “Batkivshchyna” was counting on a greater percentage of support than sociology gives now. In addition, Tymoshenko wanted to update the composition of the party with a few new people, which was not very pleasant for the members of her old team.
A new political project "Strength and honor" of Ihor Smeshko according to the latest polls, is on the verge of getting into Parliament, but as they say in the party, they are planning to bring 20 people to the Parliament. The most public person here is still the journalist and TV presenter Dmytro Gordon, who recently headed the party campaign, but is not going to go to the Rada. According to the sources of "Apostrophe", Smeshko, allegedly, has a shortage of personnel, so the positions in the list "are for sale". The Party Congress is to be held on June 8 at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. It is there that they are going to present the first five of the party.
Things are not bad for the "Opposition platform - For life", which, as "Apostrophe" wrote earlier, decided to go together, despite all the previous disagreements. Now the political force is at the stage of forming a common list. However, some key functionaries of the "Opposition block", are going to go on majority districts.
The situation with the nationalist flank, where negotiations on the unification of "Svoboda" and "National corpus" were held recently, remains unclear. "Even Kryvetskyi (Ihor Kryvetskyi, Lviv businessman, sponsor of "Svoboda", - "Apostrophe") was ready for the list to be headed by the leader of "National corpus" Andrii Biletskyi, but Oleh Tiahnubok (the leader of "Svoboda") opposed, because he wanted to be in the first place. After that, all negotiations stalled," an informed source says.
According to the sources of "Apostrophe", so far the agreement with ex-the leader of the Right Sector Dmytro Yarosh who will go as the third number in the list of "Svoboda" was reached, and Biletskyi plans to head the list of the "National corpus", but not to go as the majority deputy.
However, all these plans can be destroyed by the constitutional court, which on June 11 (on this date a court session on this issue is scheduled) can recognize the decree of President Volodymyr Zelensky on the dissolution of the Rada to be unconstitutional.
"This probability exists, though it is small. Everything depends on how well judges will be stimulated," one of the deputies from the “Front” commented to "Apostrophe".
Besides, a number of interlocutors are sure that even if elections take place, the following convocation of Rada will hold for no more than a year. "Zelensky will not be able to form a coalition. Someone will throw up roadblocks in the wheel, or there will be protests provoked by some unsatisfied politicians. And then again there will be early elections. And there will be a chance to pass for those who cannot pass now," one of people's deputies who doesn't go for re-elections in July claims or dreams.