US and Russian Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold a telephone conversation on March 18 amid intensive negotiations on a ceasefire in the war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. One of the topics of discussion during the conversation between the two presidents is the post-war status of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, occupied by the Russians. "Apostrophe" found out what the future fate of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe could be.
A telephone conversation between US and Russian presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is scheduled for March 18.
Trump announced his plans to talk to Putin on the evening of Sunday, March 16. The Kremlin later confirmed that the phone call would take place.
The logic of political negotiations suggests that presidents hold a personal conversation when the main issues have already been agreed upon at the level of the negotiating teams.
However, it is possible that at some point the American president decided to negotiate directly with the Russian dictator.
"We'll talk about land, we'll talk about power plants," Donald Trump said, answering questions from reporters on March 16.
The issue of territorial concessions by Ukraine (and Russia too - after all, their Constitution states that it includes Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions within administrative borders) has been discussed by absolutely everyone lately. As for the "power plants" mentioned by the US president, we are talking primarily about the Zaporizhia NPP - this was confirmed by the White House.
Discord Station
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Ukraine and Europe, consisting of six power units with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts each, as well as its satellite city of Energodar, are located in Russian-occupied territory. Since September 2022, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been completely shut down.
Representatives of the Russian authorities from time to time make statements about the intention to resume the operation of the plant, but from a technical point of view, in the near future it is possible to launch one, maximum two power units. The main obstacle is the lack of the necessary amount of water to cool the reactors due to the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station by the occupiers in June 2023.
There are also problems with fuel. Four of the six units of the Zaporizhia NPP are loaded with American nuclear fuel from the Westinghouse company, and two have remnants of Russian fuel. At the same time, it is difficult to assess the state of the fuel - both American and especially Russian. Rosatom claims that it will switch the Zaporizhia NPP back to Russian nuclear fuel, but even if the occupiers go for it, such work could still take a long time.
But let's return to the question of the future of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Some Telegram channels, citing "sources", report that Trump will try to convince Putin to return the station to Ukrainian control in exchange for some territorial concessions. At the same time, the same Telegram channels claim that Russia is only ready to discuss the transfer of the Zaporizhzhia NPP under international control.
In addition, since last week, a "peace plan" has been actively discussed in the Telegram community, mostly Russian, allegedly published in an American closed military chat, according to which the Zaporizhzhia NPP will work for the benefit of Ukraine, and Ukrainian specialists will be allowed to work there.
Of course, the authenticity of the "plan" has not been confirmed in any way, nor has its complete fakeness.
Is the ZNPP ours?
But is the transfer of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to us realistic in principle?
"Transferring the plant under Ukrainian control, which would be definitely important and desirable for us, is impossible without resolving the issue of access to it and the city of energy workers Energodar ," Mykhailo Honchar, president of the Strategy XXI global studies center, tells Apostrophe. " The front line runs in such a way that it is impossible to gain direct access to the ZNPP - meaning transport connections - without giving Ukraine control over some direction that will cross the front line. And this is several dozen kilometers, at least."
However, even if Russia takes such a step, there are no guarantees that it will fulfill its obligations.
"To what extent is that side ready to actually, and not declaratively, give up control over the Zaporizhzhia NPP? " the expert ponders. " They understand perfectly well that if one or two power units start operating, it will add stability to the Ukrainian energy system, even though all of this will be under Russian fire control."
Former SBU employee, defense and security expert Ivan Stupak believes that the future of the Zaporizhzhia NPP still remains a subject of bargaining between the parties.
"But in my opinion, the chances of returning the station are getting smaller and smaller with each passing month ," he said in a comment to the publication. " If before the Russians didn't know what to do with the station, now, as far as I know, they are "at full steam ahead" to integrate it into their energy network. Therefore, if they manage to wrest it from Russian occupation, at least into a neutral status, it will be an incredible achievement ."
But what could such a neutral status mean?
"Let's imagine that the station is not under the control of the Russians, not under the control of the Ukrainians, and only IAEA specialists are there," says Ivan Stupak.
However, even such a scenario leaves many questions unresolved: where will the electricity be supplied, what will be produced at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, who (and how) will pay for it, what fuel – American or Russian – will the Zaporizhzhia NPP use?
"For example, the station is ours, the fuel is American, and the Americans get paid for it, and the electricity goes to Russia - it's a so-so option, we don't like it," says Stupak.
American interest
It is obvious that even by making minimal concessions regarding the ZNPP, Putin will want to get something in return, and something worthwhile.
"The issue of the Zaporizhzhia NPP cannot be considered in isolation, it will obviously be part of some kind of package ," says Mykhailo Honchar. " It is difficult to say what this package will be. Now there are phrases about lifting sanctions or, at least, weakening them, and it is not yet possible to put all these puzzles together."
In addition to lifting sanctions, there is something that is extremely important for Russians.
"The condition may be the partial restoration of Russian gas transit to Slovakia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and possibly to Austria," Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, said in a comment to Apostrophe.
Ukraine, as is known, categorically refuses to resume the transit of Russian gas. But what if it somehow "magically" becomes American?
"Will there be any American interest here, similar to how it manifests itself in the Nord Stream scheme?" Mykhailo Honchar wonders.
Previously, "Apostrophe" wrote that American business may join the "Nord Stream-2" project in order to restore the supply of Russian gas to Europe using the surviving thread of the pipeline.
By the way, recently Russian telegram channels have been promoting the topic of a possible entry of American capital into Gazprom, which is on the verge of bankruptcy. If this or something similar happens, Ukraine may well be offered the transportation of "American" gas instead of Russian.
At the same time, the Americans can also "get into" the Zaporizhia NPP.
"If we take into account the specifics of Trump and his team, they may want to incorporate their business interests into the resolution of these complex issues ," says Mykhailo Honchar. " Therefore, I do not exclude that they may become not an arbitrator here, but a third party that enters into certain business agreements."
In turn, Volodymyr Omelchenko believes that the ZNPP could be transferred to the management of some Ukrainian-American fund, at least for a while. In his opinion, a clause on this could be included in the so-called mineral agreement, which, in fact, affects many areas of partnership between Ukraine and the United States.