Ukraine – a country vigorously striving to remain neutral in the U.S. presidential election saga – has once again found itself between the devil and the deep blue sea. Ukrainian MP Andrii Derkach, a KGB school alumnus formerly affiliated with the pro-Russian Party of Regions, released what appeared to be the recordings of Petro Poroshenko's conversations with ex-Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry. While Derkach’s heavily edited materials pose little to no threat to Mr. Biden’s campaign, it’s becoming evident that the storm is yet to come. A plethora of players seeks to entangle President Zelensky in what is bound to be a losing game.
Derkachgate: Origins and Prospects
While aimed to showcase both Biden and Poroshenko’s corruption, the so-called “Derkach tapes” offer nothing new to American voters. Barack Obama’s then-Vice President has publicly acknowledged – and even bragged about – his conclusive role in Prosecutor General Shokin’s dismissal. The scandal, however, has already done its strategic job: utilizing Petro Poroshenko’s controversial and often loathed nature, it instigated criminal cases that would – directly or indirectly – involve Biden Sr. The Prosecutor General’s Office has registered a criminal case against Mr. Poroshenko, accusing him of treason and abuse of power, and Judge Vovk obligated the same body to investigate Joe Biden’s interference in Shokin’s work. After the initial “I have a favor though” failure, Derkach’s leaks serve as a vehicle to revive the Biden-Burisma-Ukraine rhetoric and fulfill Donald Trump’s initial request.
Analyzing the not-so-loose ends, the situation appears increasingly more curious and worrisome. Interestingly, Andrii Derkach met with Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, when the latter visited Kyiv in early December 2019, going as far as filming for Giuliani’s Common Sense series. Mere two weeks prior to the said encounter, Derkach denied ever speaking to Mayor Rudy after a brief introduction the two shared in 2003. At a Ukrainian press conference on international corruption, Mr. Derkach told Apostrophe that he “met and talked to Rudy Giuliani only once – in 2003, at the opening of the Memorial for 9/11 Victims in Kyiv”. After that, he’s “never spoken to him nor seen him – except for TV”. At the same time, Derkach has been long investigating international corruption schemes, especially targeting Petro Poroshenko, his team, the Democrats, and their alleged collusion.
In his work, Mr. Derkach has been closely cooperating with the Servant of the People MP Oleksandr Dubinsky – a well-known mouthpiece of an odious oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, who is currently under investigation in the U.S. Curiously, the recordings’ leakage coincided with the intensification of the US Federal Grand Jury’s probe into Mr. Kolomoisky’s alleged money laundering. Moreover, in Ukraine, the story has been picked up and spread nearly exclusively by channels associated with either Kolomoisky or pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk.
A.Derkach
The list doesn’t end there. Former odious Party of Regions MP Oleksandr Onyshchenko, who is also a friend of both Derkach and Shokin, has recently claimed he possessed all of the unreleased tapes. According to Mr. Onyschchenko, it’s a true reason behind his arrest in Germany – right before a supposed press conference in Washington D.C. The former MP is assured, however, that Biden-Poroshenko’s corruption is going to be fully unveiled prior to the U.S. presidential election. “The Republicans work quietly. They have a group of people preparing everything for September,” he revealed to strana.ua, "A major blow will come right before the election."
Mr. Giuliani’s friend Andrii Telizhenko, whose reputation is far from credible, has also jumped on the tapes’ wagon. Alleging he had all the recordings, Mr. Telizhenko promised there were more to come and strongly advised President Zelensky to follow through with the investigations.
One outcome is palpable: Volodymyr Zelensky is under a forceful pressure to choose a side in the U.S. presidential election, which happens to be the one thing Ukraine shouldn’t do.
What does it mean for Ukraine?
Torn between a rock and a hard place, President Zelensky had been strongly avoiding any bias on Ukraine’s part. However, with Kolomoisky, Medvedchuk, and their pawns’ game of power, it becomes increasingly difficult for Ukraine to retain its position as “Switzerland” – especially where Mr. Poroshenko is concerned. Elected as “Poroshenko’s verdict”, many expect the novice president to have his predecessor imprisoned – even more so with approaching local elections in Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelensky, however, was also elected as the president of peace and opportunity. For Kyiv, the worst-case scenario would be betting on a specific U.S. candidate and losing. And, regardless of the candidate, it is a losing game. Not only would Ukraine be accused of meddling in a foreign state’s domestic affairs, but it would also lose a significant portion of American support, which is paramount in light of the country’s armed conflict with Russia and Russia-backed separatists. After all, it’s not only about the next President of the United States – the Democrats may or may not flip the Senate as well.
While Donald Trump struggles to gain leverage over Joe Biden in the upcoming presidential election – with “Ukrainegate” appearing his most promising shot – Ukraine is once again caught in the crossfire. The only way out: to refrain, no matter how hard it might be, from any form of partiality. Any legal procedures must be exclusively focused on Ukrainian internal matters, without either Biden or Trump’s involvement. Otherwise, Ukraine might face the consequences it is decidedly unprepared for.
