Americans face a challenging choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the presidency, amid reluctance towards both candidates. The Republican Party grapples with the lingering influence of the ‘Trump cancer,’ affecting aid to Ukraine, with no viable Democratic contender to challenge Trump himself. The most plausible scenario for the conflict in Ukraine involves a ceasefire freeze with NATO peacekeepers monitoring the situation. Though Ukraine's complete victory over Russia remains the ultimate objective as other world dictatorships are watching, and therefore Russia's victory will bring the Third World War closer.
DANE WATERS, a prominent American political strategist and former political appointee in President George H. W. Bush’s administration, notably refrained from supporting Donald Trump during the 2020 elections. He shared his insights in an interview with Apostrophe.
- Last week was Super Tuesday, where Trump won the Republican primary. What do you think this means?
- Well, I think Super Tuesday made it very clear that we will see a matchup between President Biden and former President Trump. It was pretty much a clean sweep for former President Trump, except for Vermont. It just shows that the American public and the Republicans are ready to finalize whom their nominee is going to be and ready for the general election.
Certainly most of the people who are voting are making it very clear that they would rather have other choices than Biden and Trump. However, the way our system is, our primary and electoral system is, those are the only options that they have. And actually, in some cases, you know, when voters are given the options of voting, either none of the above or uncommitted, they're choosing that option.
- In your opinion, how will these elections be held?
- Both candidates are old. Both candidates have high negative ratings. Both candidates are not in tune in many ways with their political base.But once again, it's really the truly the only viable options that they have to choose from.
I think we are going to see very low voter turnout, because there's not going to be the excitement to go out and vote for either candidate.
- In Ukraine, some assumes that the Democratic Party can replace Biden, for example, with Michelle Obama. Do you think this is possible?
- Well, first of all, it is impossible for there to be someone other than Joe Biden as a nominee. So the discussion about replacing him with Michelle Obama or somebody else is not even a legitimate conversation because it just really can't happen, the way our primary system is.
And so it's going to be Joe Biden. The only way that there could be an alternative candidate is if Joe Biden chooses not to be the candidate. And it's very, very unlikely.
- Some of the Ukrainian political scientists said that anyone from the Democrats, except for Biden, will defeat Donald Trump. Agree?
- Well, I wouldn't say that any other Democrat could beat Donald Trump. Because, first of all, it takes a billion dollars to run for president. Not many candidates, not many individuals have access to that kind of money.
And secondly, who on the Democratic side has the national standing? We have to run a campaign in 50 states. So it's not even a Democrat who has the machine or the mechanism to actually wage a campaign in 50 states.
So it'd be literally impossible for anybody to come in and to challenge Donald Trump at this moment in time.
- So, the big question is: Who do you believe will win - Biden or Trump?
I think it's going to be a very close election.
I think Biden is suffering because of his strong support for Israel. You know, so that is going to hurt him electorally in the general election.
To respond directly, I would have to say that it's Donald Trump's election to lose. But there is a very, very strong chance that Donald Trump will win.
- Dr. Michael Haltzel told me that the Republican Party has turned into a Donald Trump cult. How did this happen?
The way our political process works is that Donald Trump, when he was president, he had the ability to put in place leadership at the Republican National Committee that was supportive of him and his ideology and also working to put in place at the state and local level the political members of the party that are supportive of his ideology. And so that cancer, as I like to call it, the ‘Trump cancer’ has permeated throughout the party itself. And the party mechanism has been very strong in educating the people about how supporting Ukraine is not important.
Тhat cancer needs to be cured. But I'm not optimistic that the Republican Party, even if Donald Trump were to lose, would return to those values anytime soon.
The Republican Party has, in my opinion, abandoned its core principles of providing the international support that the party has been known for. I mean, as we all know, Ronald Reagan, one of the greatest Republicans of all time, was very adamant and strong in making sure that we support and help spread freedom and democracy around the world.
Donald Trump and the Republican establishment has abandoned those principles and has abandoned the support that the Republican Party has been known for. And they have corrupted the foreign policy of the United States. And if Donald Trump is elected president, it will be very detrimental to Ukraine and fighting authoritarianism around the world.
I would love for the Republican Party to find its base again and define what it believes in. But the Republican Party itself, the Republican National Committee and Donald Trump have been very good at convincing the American public that supporting Ukraine is not important, which is a colossal mistake.
So there needs to be a complete total change of the Republican establishment and the Republican Party to return to its core values of supporting those people, those countries that need support like Ukraine and Taiwan.
- In your opinion, is it possible to end the war in Ukraine within the framework of international law?
– I believe that there is a way. Yet, there's different scenarios, of course.
There's a scenario one, which is the ultimate victory. Victory being defined as kicking Russia completely out in the full restoration of territorial integrity. That is the ultimate goal.
Is that achievable? Yes. Will it be difficult? Yes, because the only way for that to happen, the only way for that to happen, is the ultimate is if the international community gives Ukraine what it needs. Ukraine cannot do it on its own.
If Ukraine do not get the support, then there can still be what I would call a reduced victory, where Ukraine is preserved, but there have to be some resolution and some agreement with Russia for certain territories. Because Russia is not going to leave completely Ukraine, unless militarily you make them do it.
Now the third reality is that there is always the possibility that the international community completely bails on Ukraine, and Ukraine could be taken. There would be no type of victory, other than absolute defeat.
- In your view, which scenario is the most likely at this juncture?
– I would like it was very clear, this is not the scenario that I want. It’s important to know that I'm not advocating for this scenario, because I want Ukraine to win and be victorious, because it's important that Russia be defeated.
However, as of now, if the United States does not give funds, if the United States does not provide a strong additional support, if the European Union doesn't, then the most likely scenario is that Ukraine is going to have to cede territory, Crimea and large portions of the east. As of now, that is the most likely scenario, but I hope that that scenario doesn't come to fruition.
So once again, it all depends on the international community and what they continue to provide.
- From my perspective, the issue lies in Germany's inclination to collaborate with global dictatorships. Having previously engaged with Russia, this key player in the EU is now actively fostering relations with China.
- I think that countries like Germany and France have to maintain, in their opinion, their relationships with the Chinese and to the Russians to some degree. And so that's going to mitigate their strong support, ensuring that Russia is defeated.
And you know, I think, we're heading in the direction of another world war. The world is being divided between good versus evil, freedom versus authoritarianism. There's no doubt about that.
And if countries like Germany and France continue to, as I say, dance with the devil, then the authoritarians will win and will ultimately end up in another world war. That will come to a cost to Ukraine and the world.
- I agree with you. There's talk of countries aligning into either a pro-China ‘axis’ or a pro-US ‘axis,’ leading to an ongoing struggle between the two factions.
- It's a tough call. I mean, I think, China has the upper hand. Given the political turmoil in the United States, I think China is taking full advantage of that political turmoil and they're able to build greater alliances and absence of America being prominent on the world stage.
It is a pity, but this is the problem. If America is going to abdicate their responsibility on the world stage, bad actors are going to take advantage of it. China, Russia, and Iran, it's inevitable.
- France is currently making headlines by discussing the potential deployment of NATO troops into Ukraine. However, former US ambassador to Germany, James Bindenagel, mentioned to me last summer the feasibility of sending Alliance forces to Ukraine, albeit solely for a peacekeeping mission to oversee the ceasefire. What are your thoughts on this matter?
- I think, creating some kind of peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is going to be very problematic in many ways.
It might require NATO peacekeepers to be in Ukraine on Ukrainian soil on an interim basis to ensure the ceasefire holds. So I do think it's a very strong possibility that could happen. If it do, I think there is a possibility that NATO forces could be in Ukraine in a peacekeeping role, not in any other role.I think that NATO's discussion about that possibility and Macron's discussions about it are legitimate.
- In my view, Emmanuel Macron's outspokenness on this matter is driven by a desire to assert himself. Previously, he made remarks about the ‘brain death of NATO,’ and Putin's actions have challenged Macron's image as an effective negotiator.
Well, I think, Macron is trying to establish himself as the de facto leader of Europe and trying to put himself in the role of being the peacekeeper and the negotiator, which he has consistently failed at, in my opinion. You know, he failed to have any impact on stopping the war from occurring.Sohisabilitytobethatnegotiator has proven not to be sufficient. So he will continue to try to put himself in the mix.
- And in closing. I usually ask you to give some advice to the leadership of Ukraine. And you always say that it is not your business to recommend something. However, you may have some thoughts now.
- Listen, PresidentZelenskyhasdoneeverythingheconceivablycandotoleadthe country during the conflict. And, you know, his replacing of the general (Valerii Zaluzhnyi) was a difficult decision, but any war that has come to a pretty much a stalemate, as the general had talked about, requires changes to occur.
The leadership of Ukraine has to do is just continue what they're doing. The best thing that they can do is to continue moving forward. The depletion of the European reserves of weapons requires them now to focus heavily on their own internal security versus providing additional support for Ukraine. That is why it's been kind of slow in many ways that Ukraine is getting the support that they need in those munitions.
I know that Ukraine is doing a lot to manufacture some of this required munitions themselves. And I do know that Ukraine is still trying to procure 155s, for example, and the international community will hopefully continue to provide funding so that they can get what they need.
The Europeans definitely want this war to end. They want Russia to be contained. They want peace again. And then it's easy for them to agree to concessions to Russia because, once again, it's not their land.
As of now, I believe Russia has the upper hand and it's important that the Ukrainians and the international community change that and put Russia back on the defensive again.
