I see that I need to explain the obvious again. (Sighs) Come on.
1. Ukraine cannot wage war and succeed without allies. The forces are simply unequal. Size (primarily economy and population) matters.
2. Our natural ally is not the one who loves us, but the one who is in the same boat with us. This is Europe. If we don't stand up, it won't survive either. And vice versa. They didn't understand this for a long time, but finally they did. Trump and his young team helped, as well as Putin and his old team.
3. The USA is important in the modern world because it is the largest economy, the largest military power, the issuer of the world's currency. The USA does not look like a reliable ally today. The entire reputation that was built over fifty years by American diplomats, government officials, military personnel, employees of American agencies, etc., was destroyed in 100 days. But the USA is still important.
4. In the US, we have many sympathizers: Democrats, a significant part of Republicans, including Trumpists, as well as millions of people without party affiliation. Trump and his young team are not all of America. Let's not fall into anti-Americanism.
5. We can continue to live without American aid, but it is better to live with American aid. There are things that cannot be replaced at the moment. There are things that are difficult to replace. There are things that can be replaced, but it takes time.
6. Time and money are the main resources of war. Time plays on our side because it gives us chances to increase our own capabilities and to deploy European capabilities. The chance can be wasted. But it is better to have time on your side than on the enemy's side.
7. We were offered a predatory agreement that turned the previous administration's non-refundable aid into debt obligations with a coefficient of 3.5 (for every dollar given to us, we had to return three and a half dollars), contradicted our European integration strategy, transferred all the risks to Ukraine, and all the benefits to the United States. It was impossible to sign such a thing, it was serfdom. It was also dangerous not to sign, risking American aid at an unpleasant moment and leaving no time for maneuver. The only correct strategy was chosen - to stall for time and "de-mine" the agreement, removing the bad things from it.
8. I didn't believe that this strategy would be completely successful. Because the other side wasn't idiots, our entire strategy was in the palm of our hand. Because we looked weak, and according to Trump's principles, the weak must yield. We had no cards, he said. But several factors came together here. The skill of our diplomats, lawyers, and economists. Putin's intransigence. Trump's inconsistency. The lack of real results in 100 days, but instead a bunch of troubles, one more annoying than the other. The heterogeneity of Trump's team. And a few more. And as a result, the "mine clearance" took place without casualties -- we received a protocol of intentions in which the parties agreed that they were for everything good and against everything bad, and everything else would be determined later. An absolutely vegetarian text instead of a predatory one soaked in blood. This is a victory.
9. There is no victory without betrayal. The Government's skill does not cover up the fact that the Government did not interact with the Parliament, to which it is constitutionally accountable. Because it is not actually accountable to the Parliament. And it is bad not only that the Government knows its place in the system of power (and it does not comply with constitutional norms), but also that members of Parliament are ready to accept this reality.
10. Trump desperately needs victories, and today's victory is a shared one. This is Ukraine's victory due to the above circumstances. But it is also Trump's victory: he finally brought something substantial to his fans. No one will read the text of the protocol of intentions, but everyone will understand that the recalcitrant Ukraine has finally been pressured. This is a great victory for the greatest negotiator in the world. And this can significantly change the balance of power both in Trump's head ("these Ukrainian peasants can give me something useful") and in his team (those who were involved in the victory are gaining weight, while those who brought nothing in their beaks are losing weight).
11. In international relations, there are no friends, but allies and partners, and in general everything is complicated. Whoever paints the world in black and white will eventually find himself among solid black paint. International politics is the subtle art of the possible and the impossible. For Ukraine, this is a new role; we were never a political subject until 2022. Now we are at the center of the world. And we must play our role with dignity. We are learning. I say "we" because every foreign policy victory and defeat is the result of the activities of thousands and thousands of people in government institutions, parliament, civil society, business, religious organizations, etc. We will learn or we will die. While we are learning, we are not bad.
12. And Russia will die and fall apart, because time is against it. There are no more resources. Resources are becoming fewer. A lot of blood will still be shed. But this is a one-way ticket. Amen.
Source: facebook.com/valerii.pekar
