The US is changing its approach to negotiations. What does this mean for Ukraine?
It seems that the Trump administration has finally realized that there are no easy solutions in Russia's war against Ukraine. If earlier we heard the familiar from 2019 "the main thing is to stop shooting", now even those who promised to "end the war in 24 hours" are switching to the rhetoric "we will try to unite the positions of the parties for the next 100 days."
But what is it really about? Not about peace, and not about victory. Just about trying to reach an agreement. And that — in conditions where agreement is almost impossible.
Because the negotiations ran into two fundamental contradictions:
The first is territories. Russia demands that Ukraine hand over part of the unoccupied territories of four regions. They are already written into the Russian constitution, and Putin will not give up this demand. So either we "give away" what belongs to us, and then Russia is "ready to talk about peace," or we don't give it away, and the war continues.
The second is guarantees. Ukraine needs security guarantees so that the war does not happen again. But Russia also wants guarantees that the occupied territories will remain its forever, even after Putin's death.
With such "outlines" - it is impossible to unite positions. Therefore, the base scenario remains the continuation of the war. And although the Trump administration tried to change this, the past 100 days have shown: it has almost no leverage left over Russia and Ukraine.
Almost, because there is only one left. That's what Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President Vance talked about yesterday: direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
This is the direction in which American diplomacy will now move. If the "shuttle" approach does not work out, they will try to force Kyiv and Moscow to speak directly. This is how we can interpret both the hints of a possible return to the "Istanbul format", and the discussions on the legal grounds for negotiations, and the conversations that are difficult for us to listen to, because it is even harder to imagine.
Is the Ukrainian government ready for this? I don't know. Unfortunately, planning is not our strongest trait. Usually we act when the situation is already critical. And only then do we turn to professionals who save what can still be saved.
It's good that among our allies there are still people who want and can help. They are in America. They are in Europe. They are also in Ukraine.
And I really hope that this time too, they won't leave us alone with this war.
Source: facebook.com/mykolakn
