Despite the announcements, Russia's attack on Ukraine didn't take place on February 16. While the media continue to wreak havoc in Ukraine, coming up with new invasion announcements, there are fewer and fewer people believing these forecasts. The problem becomes increasingly complicated as the West stirs up the situation. What should Ukraine do with 'deep concerns' and outright fake news on the part of our Western partners?
Friendly fire
A new information wave in the Western media regarding the Russian attack on Ukraine reached unprecedented heights last week. Bloomberg was one of the first publications to report the "exact date" of the attack, announced on February 15, citing U.S. intelligence sources. The news was then picked up by PBS, which, referring to two representatives of the American administration, said that "US officials anticipate a horrific, bloody campaign that begins with two days of aerial bombardment and electronic warfare, followed by an invasion, with the possible goal of regime change".
However, the warnings became more 'official' as international leaders started issuing similar statements. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that everything is ready for the "Russian invasion" of Ukraine, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated on the same day that Russia "is planning something in the next 48 hours."
In addition to the statements, Ukraine's Western partners organized an urgent evacuation effort: several countries called on their citizens to immediately depart Ukraine. The international institutions followed suit. The World Bank withdrew all representatives from the territory of Ukraine and suspended its activities in the country. The staff of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine was reduced to 22 people, with the core team then migrating to Lviv. In addition, the American diplomatic mission allegedly even cleared their building of all secret documents and communication networks. Impressive, isn't it?
"What's happening now with diplomatic missions of our Western partners is complete nonsense. It shows the absence of a global security system. The whole world knows not only Putin's intention to attack but even the dates of the attack! Where is the UN, which was created specifically to prevent wars? Where is the OSCE, a security organization in Europe? If everyone knows that there will be a war, why do they run from a potential battlefield instead of proactive actions? By moving the embassies from Kyiv, the civilized West, the defender of freedom and democracy, seems to clear a path for Putin, eliminating potential obstruction and prompting him to attack. Instead of strengthening its diplomatic presence in Ukraine and thus protecting the country, the West is packing its suitcases, wishing us a good day under Russian bombs," said the representative of Ukraine in the Trilateral Contact Group Serhiy Garmash.
Indeed, if the West believes there is a threat of a full-scale war, why does it wait for the war to happen instead of preventing it by imposing sanctions? With this, it is not surprising that many experts claim the 'imminent' invasion is merely an information war in which Ukraine became the main victim.
The blows also came from British insurance companies. The Lloyds Market Association categorized Ukrainian and Russian waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov as the zone of piracy, terrorism, and war. Air carriers are already experiencing significant problems with insurance companies refusing to insure aircraft in Ukraine despite the "tranche" of 16.6 billion UAH allocated by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine to pay off the panic in the airfield.
In addition, over the past few months of these information strikes, the National Bank has already "drained" about two billion dollars from gold and foreign exchange reserves. The other day, the Ministry of Finance held likely the most failed government bond auction in recent years, considering that the demand for government bonds of Ukraine was probably at its lowest. As a result, only 66 million hryvnias of investments were attracted to the budget, and non-residents, in turn, reduced their portfolio of government bonds by a quarter of a billion dollars.
The media panic was on the increase until February 16, the day of Russia's supposed attack. With the onset of X-day, the Western press and politicians had to somehow justify themselves in the light of unfulfilled expectations.
The British tabloid The Sun, which previously claimed that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would take place at 3 a.m. on February 16, edited its article. Now, the publication says that the night of Russia's planned attack passed without incident.
"Cold clear skies over capital Kyiv - where locals had braced for an aerial blitz - remained silent save for passing commercial flights," the newspaper altered the piece. The Sun explained Russia's reasoning for not attacking, saying, "Putin continued to keep The West guessing."
As for Western statesmen, they seem to have decided to abandon the exact invasion dates. A striking example is the words of the deputy head of the White House press service Carin Jean-Pierre, who said that "we have come to the point where the invasion can begin at any time."
She was echoed by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.
"The U.S. is very concerned about the Russian troops near the border with Ukraine and still believes that the invasion is possible at any time. The decision to move the U.S. Embassy to Lviv is temporary, the diplomatic mission will return to Kyiv as soon as possible," said the American official.
Joe Biden wasn't exactly calming either, repeatedly announcing the invasion over the past few days. Before the alleged invasion, he made an urgent announcement on the situation around Ukraine and said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was still likely. Biden added that the Russian military is still in positions threatening Ukraine. He called the possible invasion of Ukraine unjustified.
In general, Biden acted as a peacemaker. Given last year's unsuccessful experience with Afghanistan, it seems that this time the White House has prepared better...
What about the invasion?
Listening to David Arakhamia, Head of the People’s Servant faction, it seems that ‘Bankova’ has run out of patience. Through him, the President's Office expressed what would have been undiplomatic to express otherwise.
David Arakhamia
According to Arakhamia, the West continues to destroy the Ukrainian economy, which loses $2-3 billion a month due to the hysteria concerning the alleged Russian invasion.
Arakhamia also said that in 2-3 weeks Ukraine will analyze why credible world media such as CNN, Bloomberg, WSJ began to report fake information "worse than Skabeeva and Solovyov." He also said that Ukraine has already reported its financial losses to its partners because they must understand that just the headline about a country moving its embassy from Kyiv to Lviv costs Ukraine several hundred million dollars.
It's worth adding that a billion dollars of U.S. state guarantees do not save Ukraine, as well as the promises of some multibillion-dollar investments from the European Union, which, frankly, no one is realistically going to start investing into economy of the country that is allegedly about to be conquered by an aggressive neighbor.
However, it doesn't look like the position of the President's Office was heard, as evidenced by a fresh statement by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, which believes that the Russian army will be ready to attack Ukraine in the second half of February.
"According to our assessment, the Russian armed forces may start a full-scale operation against Ukraine within the second half of February. After achieving full military readiness, only a political solution will be required to start the operation," the Estonian report says.
What should Ukraine do while being in the epicenter of the media frenzy, and are the Ukrainian authorities communicating their responses correctly? According to Mykola Kapitonenko, an expert at the International Centre of International Studies, President Zelensky's reaction to the intensified panic was adequate.
"There may have been some roughness or unsuccessful formulations, but the position in the dialogue with Western states was correct. It was said that there is no reason to panic, there is no need to escalate the situation, this does not contribute to Ukrainian interests and does not facilitate the end of the crisis. Zelensky withstood this line to the end, and if there is no invasion, the president will score some points for such behavior during the crisis," the expert said.
According to him, there are simply no other options for reacting to what is happening because it makes no sense to blame Americans or the British for double playing considering that they still support us and supply the weapons. These countries act according to their own interests and responsibilities and may well take care of the lives of their own citizens, diplomats and make appropriate decisions.
In turn, the expert of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future Ilya Kusa believes that the authorities need to make independent decisions, despite all the pressure, and this is the only and most rational way out of the situation. That is, Ukraine needs to voice the assessments of what is happening, stay calm and look at everything in a balanced manner. In general, a way of communication, promptly refuting rumors, even directly contradicting the information of Western media, is actually the only method that the authorities can use to block the panic.
"It would be nice if the current situation led the authorities to become a little tougher with our Western partners. In addition, I hope that the current crisis will destroy the myth of the infallibility of Western media, and show the clear benefits of possessing your own information space, and not depending on someone else's. We drifted for a long time from the Russian information space, which became toxic after 2014, and since then we did not have our own - we began to depend on the Western information space, which, as we can also see, can spread disinformation," Kusa claims.
Some experts have a more radical position regarding the information war pushed by the West. In particular, political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko believes that diplomatic ways of reacting to such actions of our partners have already exhausted themselves.
"Our partners should be undiplomatically put in place before the moment we will be no longer able to tolerate their antics: the economy suffers, we have been given the role of the "ball" that is played. After all, we also have our own interests, national pride and our own vision of how to act in the current circumstances," the expert notes.
In general, as Serhiy Garmash notes, Ukrainians have been living for several weeks with the feeling of a person who was told that he had cancer and would die any day now. At the same time, the doctors who diagnosed it just prescribed the medicines promised we would defeat the disease in the future, and left to watch the agony on TV.
We can only rely on ourselves and hope that the West's promises for help will not be as empty as their forecasts of Russia’s invasion on February 16.