The GOP outperformed itself in the 2020 race. The election night proved successful for Republicans across the board, all up and down the ballot, from the President down to local elections. Nevertheless, former Vice President Joe Biden has the best chance of becoming the 46th President of the United States. Grant Reeher, a director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute and a professor of political science at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, highlighted some of the key takeaways of the 2020 election, as well as described Biden’s potential policy toward Ukraine.
- In general, what is your assessment of the presidential election? Could you highlight some of the key takeaways?
- So many things, hard to pick a few.
First, it was a good night for Republicans across the board, all up and down the ballot, from the President down to local elections. They out-performed given the expectations, and given some of the mistakes of the Trump administration--especially on the response to the pandemic. Republicans did quite well overall, and most analysts were surprised. They could be in a very good situation in 2022 and 2024.
Second, despite all the challenges we faced--the controversies over new voting methods, the claims made by the president and others that undermined confidence in the election, and the closeness in the results--for the most part the election system seemed "to work" last night. Things functioned reasonably well. That's a success story that's not being recognized
Third, the new procedures for voting undertaken in many states may continue after COVID. Voter turnout was truly astonishing, and set a modern record. Those new methods had a lot to do with that.
Fourth, with the Democrats' failure to retake the Senate, the issues of packing the Supreme Court and eliminating the Senate filibuster are now moot.
- The difference between Biden and Trump is extremely narrow. Is it the worst scenario?
- Biden has won a majority of the popular vote, for the nation as a whole. What is at stake now is the Electoral College vote, which determines who will be president. These votes are decided by the popular vote in each state, in a mostly winner-take-all fashion. Either Biden or Trump will in fact win a majority of these votes, as no other candidate will win an entire state. But several states are very close in the results between Biden and Trump, so there will be recounts in these states, and we will have to wait a bit to see who has won. Right now, Biden has the best chance of becoming President.
- Regarding the tensions in Seattle and Portland, how dangerous it could get? I don’t believe in a civil war, but how wide the unrest may be?
- These two cities have seen many protests in recent years – especially Portland. What is happening there is not as extreme as what has happened in the past, and not really out of the ordinary for those two cities. Overall, there have been fewer instances of unrest than I expected, to be honest.
- According to Reuters, “Many Venezuelans are hoping for the re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose campaign of aggressive sanctions against the South American nation’s ruling Socialist Party has won over a broad swathe of President Nicolas Maduro’s critics.” If re-elected, do you think Trump will keep his pressure on world dictators in Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, Russia, etc.? What about Biden?
- I'd expect President Biden to conduct foreign policy more like President Obama - less belligerent language and less sword-rattling, and an emphasis on multi-lateral action. But I would not expect Biden to be accommodating of any of these nations. I'd expect him to be tougher on Russia, in fact.
If Trump wins re-election, I'd expect more of what we've already seen--an emphasis on two-way deals and two-way relations over multi-lateral ones.
- If Biden wins, will his progressive supporters promote increasingly friendly relations with left-wing countries like Venezuela, Cuba, etc.?
- The emphasis of progressives at the moment is more focused on domestic rather than foreign policy--issues like health care, taxes, education, immigration, and the environment. There could be more openness toward Cuba, but I doubt we'd see the same with Venezuela. Biden will get more pressure from progressives on domestic policy.
- There is a belief/theory that Trump would be better for Ukraine – his actions are more predictable, and we know what to expect. Realistically, Ukraine highly depends on US support. At the same time, we are struggling to predict Biden’s actions toward Ukraine, taking into account the weak military support of the Obama administration. Could you please comment on the situation?
- Obama was no great friend of communists. And I don't perceive Trump as very predictable. His style and tactics rely a lot on disruption, bluffing, and disorder. Biden would be easier to predict, I think. He'll be a more moderate version of Obama.
However, the controversy surrounding his son might make him wary of helping Ukraine, any more than what would be considered "normal." He probably would not want to create the appearance that he was "rewarding" Ukraine somehow.
- And what would you categorize as “normal" when it comes to Ukraine? What would be the line between "that's ok" and "that's too much" for Biden?
- That's a good question and I am not knowledgeable enough on policies toward Ukraine to give you a good answer. But I think he might be wary of departing from whatever is considered the standard amount of foreign aid for that country. I'd say he would want to keep it in line with the past, whatever that is. I'm sure the Republicans and the press will be watching this closely if he's president.
