On February 16, opposition figure Alexey Navalny passed away in a Russian Arctic prison, as confirmed by Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service for the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District. While Navalny's demise may not elicit sympathy due to his anti-Ukrainian stance, it is crucial to recognize his influence among Russians critical of Putin's government. Navalny, a personal adversary of Putin, commanded a level of authority, evident in Putin's avoidance of even mentioning his name. The analysis by Apostrophe delves into the potential repercussions of Navalny's death on Russia's political landscape.
Reactions and excuses
As per Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District, Navalny, serving his term at the "Polar Owl" colony in Kharp village, reportedly fell ill and lost consciousness after a walk. Despite prompt medical intervention and resuscitation attempts, the convict's demise was declared by emergency medical personnel.
Navalny's press secretary, Kira Yarmysh, promptly expressed uncertainty, stating in X, ‘Alexey's Lawyer is now flying to Kharp. Updates will be provided as soon as we receive information’.
Russian journalist and former scientific editor of Vokrug sveta magazine, Sergey Nemalevich, highlighted several discrepancies in the statements made by Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service.
‘The distance from the Labitnang city hospital to the colony in Kharp is 33 kilometers, according to Google, it takes at least half an hour to drive. There is a district hospital in Kharp itself, but in 2018, due to the small population of the village, it was turned into a district dispensary and attached to the Aksarka city hospital (113 kilometers from Aksarka to Kharp). It does not look like Kharp has its own ambulance station (I could be wrong, I will look into it further). Of course, the ambulance could have ended up in the village on another accident. Of course, information that medical assistance was provided within seven minutes can be a lie. Other options are possible. For example, that an ambulance was on standby’, he wrote in Facebook.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin's press secretary, stated that the Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service is handling all necessary investigations in accordance with existing protocols, emphasizing no requirement for specific directives. Peskov confirmed that Putin has been informed about Navalny's death.
The Investigative Committee of Russia has officially announced an investigation into the circumstances surrounding Navalny's death.
At the annual Munich Security Conference, world leaders shared their remarks on the demise of the Russian opposition politician.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, President of Georgia Salome Zurabishvili have all asserted that Alexei Navalny's death is attributed to Putin's criminal regime. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, urged unity in the ‘fight to safeguard the freedom and safety of those who dare to stand up against autocracy’.
Russian human rights defender Eva Merkacheva suggested that the severe detention conditions in the colony might have played a role in the oppositionist's death.
‘The prolonged stays in punitive isolation cells likely played a role, with repeated assignments numbering in the tens. The penitentiary's harsh conditions involve cold and hunger. Guidelines are limiting isolation duration. However, there are no constraints on the frequency of transfers to isolation. After completing one term, individuals are swiftly reassigned following new alleged violations, creating a concerning cycle of detention. This is terrible, you know’, she stated.
The joy of Kremlin propagandists
While Putin remains silent on Navalny's demise, the State Duma and Russian Foreign Ministry have issued statements.
Political party United Russia, aligned with Putin, instructed its members to refrain from commenting on the oppositionist's death. Vladimir Dzhabarov, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, described Navalny's demise as an ‘incident’.
The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, in her boorish manner, blamed the West for Navalny's death: ‘The immediate reaction of NATO leaders to Navalny's death in the form of direct accusations against Russia is self-revealing. There is no forensic examination yet, but the West's conclusions are ready.’
Kremlin propagandists expressed their views in a coarse manner, levying accusations against the West.
Margarita Simonyan, head of the Russia Today TV channel:
‘I won't bother elucidating to the bourgeois mass media that he's long been forgotten, and there's no motive to eliminate him, especially before elections—something that benefits opposing forces. No need for explanations; they are well aware. Russia owes nothing; focus on our achievements in space. That’s all.’
Tina Kandelaki, Putinist, Russian socialite and journalist:
‘Abruptly, the once vibrant Alexei Navalny meets an unexpected demise, precisely as the Russian opposition's momentum wanes, amid a shifting public sentiment toward Russia. The timing grants an unexpected boon to the opposing side, likely triggering an anti-Russian sentiment in the West. The unfolding events raise the question: is this sheer coincidence, or has someone strategically moved another piece on the geopolitical chessboard?’
Anton Krasovsky, propagatedeliminating Ukrainian children previously:
‘That is, the first thing that comes to mind is that the Americans f*cked Navalny to balance the consequences of Putin’s interview with Carlson. But it’s scary to imagine that they could so easily carry out a targeted special operation in a secure institution on Russian territory.’
The Kremlin's propaganda is dismissed by experts who contend thatKremlin orchestrated deliberately Navalny's actual murder and is playing the fool now.
‘In my view, this is an exemplary execution meant to showcase Putin's sense of impunity. His actions highlight his confidence, particularly at a time when the United States, his primary adversary, appears historically weak and lacking in resolve. Putin has reveled in impunity, killing Ukrainians and seizing our lands since 2014. He reveled in impunity, killing Syrians. Spreading dictatorship in Africa. Targeting dissenters beyond Russia's borders’, the military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko noted in a commentary.
According to Kovalenko, Navalny did not pose any threats to the Putin system.
‘But Putin needs a bloody demonstration of his absolute power. Just before the elections. Just before the address to the Federal Assembly. Amid battles for Avdiivka. Just after the disastrous interview with Tucker Carlson. This humiliated Kremlin dwarf needed a victim for self-affirmation,’ the expert believes.
What to expect inside Russia and abroad
‘The Russian opposition, along with Navalny's associates, is expected to confine itself to making verbal threats in Western media and on social platforms. I do not foresee any protests, let alone a regime change, as such outcomes are deemed impossible in present-day Russia,’ the human rights activist, member of the expert council of the Center for Civil Liberties Mykhailo Savva.
Oleksandr Kovalenko agrees with him.
‘What will be the step from the Russian opposition? They can come out with balloons and throw snowballs. But the place of the Russian opposition was eloquently indicated. They will sit there until the Ukrainians free them from the bloody dictator,’ he noted.
Political scientist Yaroslav Makitra highlights that despite the adverse repercussions for the Kremlin, Navalny's death is advantageous for the Russian security bloc.
‘In Russia, the number of people convinced that there is no alternative to the regime’s forceful resistance will increase. But we can expect an increase in recruits to the Russian Volunteer Corps’, he stated. This mean that more Russians will join Armed forces of Ukraine.
The political scientist suggests that Kremlin propaganda will face challenges in advancing Putin's narratives in the United States and the broader West. The expert underscores a criticism from the American press, questioning why Tucker did not inquire about Navalny.
Statements from the Russian opposition have emerged. However, quoting them may offer limited insight, as they largely echo each other, expressing condolences for Navalny and issuing threats against Putin's regime.
‘I want Putin and all his associates, friends, and government to know that they will be held accountable for what they have done to our country, to my family, and to my husband. And that day will come soon,' stated Yulia Navalnaya in Munich, the wife of the dead oppositionist.
For now, following Putin's actions, the West should take firm measures against the Kremlin. One of the most logical steps would be to refuse to recognize the legitimacy of the presidential elections in Russia scheduled for March.
‘Navalny did not just die in prison. With the elections coming up, the Kremlin KILLED Navalny, one of the political opponents of Putin. Therefore, Putin is illegitimate. And the elections on March 17 cannot be recognized,' former Vice President of Gazprombank, Igor Volobuev, now residing in Ukraine, made note of this on his page in X.
