“Heavy artillery" - represented by a billionaire and media mogul Michael Bloomberg, who officially announced his intention to run for the president of the United States - has entered the arena of political confrontation in America.
A vacant seat in the Democrats' camp
For a long time, former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, with his "moderate" political stance, was considered the main contender for victory in the democratic primaries and a candidate capable of "trampling" Donald Trump in the 2020 elections. But the poor debate performances, the White House's purposeful work and, most importantly, the constant mention of Biden's name next to the word "corruption" during the Ukrainegate, have downgraded Joe's rating. Although he is the leader in national polls, Biden's first primaries periodically lose to the left-wing candidates like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. As a result, the party's establishment is seriously concerned with the Democrats' prospects.
One could assume that another, more left-wing candidate wouldn't be a problem. The president's ratings are far from the best, and the impeachment inquiry has a strong impact on his popularity. The fact is, however, that when the real electoral confrontation begins in 2020, it would be much easier for Republicans to build an effective campaign against a left-wing candidate than against a centrist one. In addition, according to a poll conducted by the Five Thirty-Eight Center, more than two-thirds of democratic voters are guided by the candidate's ability to defeat Trump in the elections. This opens a way to the political Olympus for candidates with more or less centrist positions.
Through the thorns of a presidential candidacy
The most serious figure among these candidates is undoubtedly Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City and a billionaire media tycoon, who has announced his intention to run as a Democrat. His candidacy looks rather promising, considering controversial circumstances.
Michael Bloomberg
"On the one hand, Bloomberg has a huge financial resource and a good reputation as a former mayor of New York. He is positioning himself as a centerpiece, which is important in light of the strengthening of the left flank. On the other hand, there is no unambiguous leader in the race, and Bloomberg will stretch the votes even further. His nomination is a trial step, and the progression of events will show his real chances," said Sergey Galakae, a professor at IIR.
The American press is also reacting to Bloomberg's entrance rather ambiguously. In particular, the editor of the Los Angeles Times, John Haley, noted that "despite the fact that Bloomberg is a billionaire and quite famous throughout the country, polls show that Democratic voters are much more inclined to support the liberal candidates than the moderate ones, except for Joe Biden. Many pro-democratic resources express fears that Bloomberg would only harm the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. Nevertheless, there are also those excited for Bloomberg's campaign. Kevin Williamson, a columnist for the National Review, described the new candidate's strength noting that Bloomberg has something to offer to "both liberal and conservative voters".
Trump's disappointing prospects
As we have already noted, the first thing that interests democratic voters is the candidate's ability to defeat Donald Trump. Bloomberg would have much fewer problems with this than his competitors. His financial and media resources may well compete with those of the current US president. He also doesn't have too controversial ideas like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, nor does he have a non-traditional sexual orientation like Buttigieg, making it much more difficult to campaign against him. In addition, the White House has been concentrating on Biden as Trump's likely main opponent, and the Republicans would have to develop a strategy against Bloomberg from scratch.
"Bloomberg's victory in the election cannot be ruled out, as he has the prospect of attracting both left-wing and more right-wing voters. After all, even the left-wing Warren and Sanders, despite the polls, have every chance of winning Trump. However, much will depend on the results of the impeachment procedure," Galaka says.
"When Trump ran in 2016, he praised his billions of personal wealth and his business records, and many voters bought what he was selling. If I were a Democrat, I would have enjoyed seeing him trying to use it against Michael Bloomberg, a billionaire who made himself, without a number of exciting casino bankruptcies. Against a man who could buy and sell Donald Trump a dozen times, according to Trump himself," said Kevin Williamson.
A very serious asset in Bloomberg's account, which Warren and Sanders can't even dream about, is his chance to win over Republican supporters who are not too happy with the president.
"If everything comes down to the struggle for votes of moderate suburbs in 2020, Bloomberg would be on horseback," Kevin Williamson added.
Therefore, despite the fact that the rating of his main competitor - Joe Biden - is far from miraculous, Donald Trump should not relax. If Bloomberg gets through the primaries - and with his resources and time (the first primaries will be held in early February 2020), it won't be a problem - Trump will get a powerful rival, who will have enough strength to take the chair in the Oval Office from the odious Republican.
