On Thursday, May 30, a truly historic event took place in the U.S. A New York jury unanimously convicted Donald Trump of falsifying business records, specifically for paying hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels. Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts. There is no doubt that the 45th President of the U.S. will receive a criminal sentence, albeit possibly suspended. However, will this event alter the course of the election campaign and benefit Joe Biden? Apostrophe investigated.
When Becoming President is Possible Even from Prison
The New York case against Trump is the first of four filed against him and the first to have a jury verdict. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg expressed gratitude to the jury at a post-trial press conference, stating they ‘did their job.’
The jury consisted of 12 New York residents: seven men and five women, including a banker, an engineer, a nurse, and two lawyers. Most selected candidates stated they did not follow politics closely. Each juror promised the judge to remain impartial.
After a six-week trial, they found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 charges, specifically for falsifying business documents to conceal a $130,000 payment to porn actress Stormy Daniels just before the 2016 presidential elections.
We won't delve into the details of Trump's relationship with the porn star, although they were thoroughly examined during the trial proceedings.
Following the verdict, Trump, in his typical brash manner, criticized the jury and the court, reiterating once again that he is innocent of any wrongdoing.
‘The real verdict is going to be November 5, by the people’, Trump said as he left the court.
The jury's guilty verdict will form the basis of the court's conviction.
Trump faces up to four years in prison for each of the charges. Judge Juan Merchan will determine the sentencing.
The sentencing will take place on July 11. At that point, the former U.S. president will remain out of prison. Prosecutors did not seek bail from Trump. However, Trump is likely to appeal the jury's decision, which could significantly delay the sentencing, Reuters reported.
Theoretically, the charges against Trump could collectively carry a prison term of up to 20 years. However, according to American legal experts, there is no typical judicial practice in such cases. More likely, it will result in a short prison term or a fine with probation, Reuters notes.
Nevertheless, regardless of the outcome, the verdict rendered by the jury and the subsequent sentencing hold historical significance, as Trump becomes the first former president in American history to be convicted of a criminal offense.
However, the court verdict will not affect his eligibility to run for president.
‘According to the American Constitution, anyone can run for president, even if the person is in prison,’ noted Sergey Halaka, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv in a comment to Apostrophe.
Consolidation of Trump's Electorate?
However, the court's decision could impact the U.S. presidential election campaign.
‘I think this is an interesting decision, and, as often happens lately, it will alter the rules of the political game,’says Yevhen Mahda, Director of the Institute of World Policy.‘For Trump, this verdict is not as daunting as it is for his opponents.’
According to the expert, the verdict against Trump will lead to the consolidation of his voters, as practice shows they are quite organized and support him strongly.
‘We can recall how, when Trump was symbolically detained, he took a photo in jail, which sparked a wave of supportive posts. I think the situation is similar now,’Mahda says. ‘As for Biden, I believe his administration would rather have paid a lot of money to avoid this verdict, but it exists.’
‘This means Trump will definitely remain a presidential candidate, and his chances of becoming president have not diminished,’ Mahda believes. ‘On the other hand, Biden will now have to work harder to win over undecided voters, primarily focusing on economic issues, which will influence the situation with China and Russia, and push for steps to revive the economy. So, the next five months will be interesting.’
Political strategist Vitaliy Bala believes that this verdict against Trump will also impact electoral sentiments.
‘Now the election campaign in swing states takes center stage. Surveys among Americans have shown that the guilty verdict could cost Trump a few percentage points in the election. The outcome could be decided by three key states—Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—where the gap between Trump and Biden is currently small. If the Democrats run an effective information campaign there, Biden could surpass Trump. Overall, there are many interesting events ahead,’Bala stresses.
The American Crisis
‘This verdict is a serious blow to Trump, which could lead to a final rupture within the Republicans. While Trump has his core electorate, it's only a fraction of the Republican Party,’ explains to Apostrophe political scientist, international relations conflictologist, and Director of the Institute of International Studies, Hryhoryi Perepelytsia.
According to the political scientist, America is currently in a deadlock.
‘We are witnessing the collapse of the American political system. Americans have backed themselves into a corner. On one side, there is Trump, embroiled in criminal offenses, including attempted violent overthrow of power, and dreaming of establishing an authoritarian regime in America, as he has repeatedly stated. On the other side, there is Biden—a frail, old man who struggles to move and make decisions, reminiscent of late Brezhnev, which concerns three-quarters of voters. And now, voters must make a choice between them,’ Perepelytsia says.
‘America, and with it all of us, are facing difficult times, as the Western world has already lost its leader in the form of the United States,’ the political scientist concludes.
