Poland has got a new prime minister, accompanied by a fresh coalition in the Sejm, and the government has already sworn allegiance to the president. Undoubtedly, this marks a significant milestone in modern Polish history, even Andrzej Duda of the currently opposition party Prawo i Sprawiedliwość still holds the position of the country's president. This shift not only entails symbolic rearrangements in leadership but may also impact the entire governance structure of the country, which has been a crucial ally to Ukraine in its ongoing conflict. For insights into what Kyiv can expect from Poland's new prime minister, Donald Tusk, refer to the analysis in Apostrophe.
On Monday, December 11, the Polish Sejm ousted Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and his interim government. Morawiecki failed of a vote of confidence from the Sejm, with 190 deputies supported his appointment, while 266 deputies opposed it. Instead, the Sejm elected 66-year-old Donald Tusk as the country's prime minister. Tusk previously held the position from 2007 to 2014 before transitioning to European Council President, stepping away from domestic politics.
The coalition of parties that propelled Tusk back into power is Koalicja Obywatelska, Polska 2050, Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, and Nowa Lewica. While somewhat patchy, it currently showcases a degree of unity.
‘Given the need to keep their seats at the table, this coalition will be quite robust, although they have internal divergences. For at least two years, it is unlikely that significant challenges will affect the stability of this coalition. However, in the medium term, some differences are likely to come to the forefront,’ Head of the Analytical Department at the Content Analysis Center, Serhiy Stukanov comment to Apostrophe.
Critical positions for relations with Ukraine, such as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Defense, and others, were appointed by December 13. For now, let's turn our attention to the leader of the Polish government himself.
From Warsaw to Brussels and back
Beyond Donald Tusk's experience as prime minister, his tenure in Brussels as the head of the European Council is equally crucial in the new premier's political biography. He held his position in turbulent times, notably during Russia's annexation of Crimea and the unleashing of hybrid aggression in the Donbas region. Currently, this position is held by Charles Michel looking very similar in his appearance to Ukraine's Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal in some pictures.
‘Donald Tusk has effectively taken the reins of the European Union, given Poland's considerable influence during his previous leadership. Poland, under his guidance, not only aligned with the EU but emerged as a significant force among Eastern European nations, becoming the most economically advanced and influential in the region. Poles, at various times, assumed pivotal roles such as leading the European Parliament and influencing the EU's international direction. In essence, this marks the pinnacle of Tusk's political career, and his return is seen as a positive sign for the European Union,’ the Executive Director of the Center for Applied Political Studies ‘Penta,’ Olexandr Leonov stressed in his comment to Apostrophe.
Tusk's background in Brussels is pivotal, granting him insight into the intricacies of the European Union.Overall, the new prime minister has repeatedly emphasized the need to restore constructive relations with Brussels.Yet, Yevhen Mahda, Executive Director of the Institute of World Policy, says there are limitations associated with the popularity of thePrawo i Sprawiedliwość party. Despite transitioning to oppositionfor now, the party secured support from more than a third of voters in the recent elections.
‘On one hand, I believe Tusk will actively engage with the European Commission to restore funding for Poland—a move likely to be positively received by the Polish public. However, he will tread carefully to avoid giving critics grounds for scrutiny, given the significant 35% backing enjoyed by Prawo i Sprawiedliwość. This factor must be taken into account', Mahda comment to Apostrophe.
Prime Minister and President
Donald Tusk and his coalition have promised substantial transformations in the country, such as abolishing stringent abortion restrictions, reducing the influence of religion in the education system, and reversing a judicial reform that increased judges' dependence on the government. However, these initiatives can only be realized through new legislation. While there is support in the Sejm for these changes, President of Poland Andrzej Duda holds the power of veto and can potentially block these reforms. The timeline for the new government to demonstrate its initial outcomes remains uncertain.
‘Much hinges on how inclined Duda is to remain within the PiS fold, especially considering he is not elderly, yet his second term is drawing to a close. Until recently, a prevailing belief in Poland held that Duda was essentially an extension of Yaroslav Kaczyński's hand. Whether he harbors enough ambition for the next year and a half until the next presidential elections in Poland is a compelling question. it should be considered in the context of the upcoming elections to the European Parliament and the forthcoming U.S. presidential elections, both of which will impact the situation in Warsaw’, Mahda believes.
According to him, Duda will appreciate his experience in engaging with Volodymyr Zelensky—different tones, different connotations, and discussions about state interests. However, on matters constituting Polish common interests, Tusk and Duda will present a united front.
Mutual steps in self-interest
Regarding relations with Ukraine, experts surveyed express a tempered optimism, citing several reasons.
‘For Tusk, this is to some extent a personal history. He has a long and intimate familiarity with Ukraine. A few months before the 2019 presidential elections, he addressed the Verkhovna Rada. At that time, he was still the head of the European Council. Notably, he spoke in Ukrainian. Therefore, he is very well-acquainted with Ukraine, and improving relations is a personal matter for him,’ Serhiy Stukanov stresses.
According to him, the improvement in Ukrainian-Polish relations should be viewed within the context of the ‘Kyiv-Warsaw-Brussels’ triangle.
‘In the coming months, the new government needs to address shortcomings and enhance relations with the European Union, which suffered in certain aspects under the previous administration. Poland gained an unfavorable reputation as a nation inclined toward authoritarianism. Therefore, I think that they will try to improve these moments,’ Stukanov added.
In one of the most contentious issues – the border blockade – there have been some developments, albeit without direct intervention from Warsaw politicians. On December 11, the crossing point "Dorohusk-Yagodyn" was temporarily unblocked. The head of the local community, Wojciech Sawa, decided to disperse the protest by carriers, possibly anticipating political changes. Although the border crossing was later reblocked, the new Prime Minister of Poland engaged with experts to address the carriers issue.
‘I believe that once the transitional period for the Polish government concludes and Polish intelligence services have a new coordinator, they will unexpectedly gain clarity and perceive Russia's active stance in this matter. Consequently, they are likely to act more appropriately. I'm counting on this because asserting that Tusk had a fundamentally different stance on Ukrainian grain and a clear position on the blockade wouldn't be accurate’, Mahda says.
Yet, emotional motivations and public sentiment shouldn't be ignored as guides for the Polish leadership.
‘In the current crisis between Poland and Ukraine, the ‘Confederation’ right-wing party doesn't play a significant role. What is crucial is that President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom I consider a hero, screw Poland at the UN General Assembly. His statements were not a slap on the face of PiS specifically but rather of Poland as a whole’, the international observer at the Onet.pl, former interim representative for Polish affairs in Belarus, Witold Jurasz told to Apostophe.
In this context, it is essential to recall the traditionally sensitive ‘historical question,’ which took a backseat with the onset of the full-scale invasion but unexpectedly resurfaced during the parliamentary elections.
‘On one hand, the political instrumentalization of history is not a top priority. On the other hand, I have doubts that the Sejm will revoke the ‘Day of Remembrance of the Victims of the Volhynian Tragedy.’ This is simply because an absolute majority of Polish parliamentarians voted for its establishment, with no one voting against. Therefore, expecting a complete reversal to a more liberal stance, as suggested by opponents of Donald Tusk from the PiS party, seems unlikely. I believe it will be more moderate,' Leonov notes.
The Volhynian Tragedy involved actions by Ukrainian nationalist liberation units that led to casualties among the civilian Polish population in the territory of modern-day Western Ukraine.
Indeed, during Donald Tusk's first term, models for resolving this dispute were developed since the second president of Independent Ukraine, Leonid Kuchma, held the office.
‘Beginning with Oleksandr Kwasniewski, followed by Lech Kaczynski and Donald Tusk during his initial premiership, they actively pursued compromises and sought understanding with Ukraine. In fact, as far back as Kuchma's era, the 'Forgive and ask for forgiveness' formula emerged, leading to a gradual, step-by-step approach to mutual understanding. Hence, there is optimism for an improvement in relations with Ukraine,’ Oleksandr Leonov notes.
Therefore, in the effort to establish a dialogue with the new Polish government, it is crucial not to forget that each state prioritizes its own interests above all.
‘We feel a moral obligation because Ukraine is a victim. Therefore, supporting Ukraine is simply the right thing to do. In Poland, we will continue to support Ukraine on fundamental issues of war and defense. However, if Kyiv expects concessions from Poland just because there's a change in government, they are greatly mistaken. Donald Tusk's cabinet will also prioritize Poland's interests,’ Witold Jurasz concludes.
