In the United Kingdom, Parliament has been dissolved ahead of early elections set for July 4. Following the dissolution, every seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant, signaling a potential shift in government leadership. Professor Simon Mabon, Сhair in International Politics at Lancaster University, discussed with Apostrophе the impact these elections may have on future relations with Ukraine.
- During the elections in Britain, the powers of Members of Parliament are suspended, and the government's powers are also limited. Will this affect aid to Ukraine?
- No, the election campaign will most likely see the continuation of existing policies towards Russia and Ukraine; barring significant developments, foreign policy will continue in the same vein.
- It's no secret that there are various national separatist movements in the United Kingdom. Is there a danger that Russia might try to exploit them during the elections and ‘rock the boat’?
- There is a fear that Russia or actors associated with them may engage in disinformation or propaganda campaigns during the election. Official branches of government are conscious of this and are working to prevent such developments, but this raises important questions about social media and the responsibility of the organisations owning them. Despite any aspirations to disrupt the election from the Kremlin, this should be unsuccessful.
- Will the current head of the British government, Rishi Sunak, win the election?
- It is widely expected that Rishi Sunak will lose the election. Opinion polls place Labour and Keir Starmer far ahead of the Tories, with little chance of recovery for Sunak.
- Nonetheless, a dark spot in Labour's history remains Jeremy Corbyn. He has connections with Russia, has appeared on Russian TV channels, and has made anti-Semitic remarks. What are the chances his persona could influence the elections?
- Jeremy Corbyn is standing as an independent candidate in the election, most probably against a Labour candidate. Corbyn was suspended by the Labour Party in 2020 and has been told that he is no longer a party member.
The Labour party has taken a firm line against the hard left of the party, preventing Corbyn and key allies from standing as candidates in the election.
A Labour victory under Keir Starmer will largely see the continuation of Conservative foreign and security policies.
- A segment of the liberal, "leftist" intelligentsia in Britain supports Palestine. Do you think the Israeli military operation will significantly impact the elections?
-The Palestinian question is certainly a key issue in the minds of the British public, but it is a marginal issue compared to questions about the economy, NHS, and public services.
- Will Keir Starmer become the new Prime Minister?
-Yes, Keir Starmer will most likely become Prime Minister, barring a significant mistake by him or key allies
- Britain has been and remains a crucial ally of Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Is there a chance that, if the Labour Party gains a majority in Parliament, they might cut aid to Ukraine, redirecting funds for domestic purposes?
- I would be surprised if there is a significant change in policy towards Ukraine. Starmer has sought to position himself as a ‘safe pair of hands’ and one that puts country above party. There is strong support for Ukraine across the UK, even as domestic pressures increase.
