Moscow has intensified its strategic maneuvers in the Persian Gulf region, as the policy of the local countries determine Russia's financial capacity to sustain aggression against Ukraine and orchestrate military-political offensives against NATO member states. The Kremlin finds itself balancing delicately between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and their rival Shiite Iran. Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin dictator, seeks to exploit tensions among Muslim nations and the United States, particularly heightened after the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel, in a bid to shed the pariah image. The Kremlin's ambitious goal in the coming year is to amass resources for expanding aggression against Ukraine and, in the event of increased turbulence in the U.S., execute a ‘hybrid attack’ on NATO's eastern flank. For further details, refer to the analysis on Apostrophe.
On December, 8, Vladimir Putin met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow. The talks between Putin and Raisi lasted approximately five hours. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's ‘spokesperson,’ described the meeting as ‘very substantial.’
‘In an expanded format, a substantive discussion took place for over two hours, during which ministers provided detailed updates on their respective areas. They addressed issues, proposed solutions, and outlined steps to accelerate further collaboration. The negotiations were very intensive and productive', Peskov said,
According to him, the parties discussed the situation in Gaza, where Israel is conducting an operation against Hamas militants. Additionally, they delved into topics of bilateral cooperation, aligning perspectives on other international affairs, including the policies of OPEC+ countries regarding the reduction of oil production.
‘Iran swapped its drones for Russian fighter jets, but I doubt that the discussions were solely focused on the delivery of ‘jet-powered Shaheds,’ which are still speculative at this point. It is not likely that the parties delved into topics such as circumventing technological sanctions or upgrading the military-industrial complex. This matters can be discussed at the ministerial and advisory levels. It is possible that Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Moscow aimed to address unresolved issues face-to-face, particularly concerning the provision of nuclear technology to Iran. Given the conflict in Gaza, it looks like a risky move against Israel and the US. Iran, after acquiring ‘civilian’ nuclear technologies, will be able to adapt them to military needs.. Considering Iran's leadership has openly declared the need to eliminate Israel as a state, a nuclear agreement between Tehran and Moscow would escalate tensions in the already volatile Middle East’ international political scientist Volodymyr Volya says.
The Russian authoritarian leader, often called bunker dictator, met with his Iranian ally literally the day after concluding his "Middle East tour," during which he visited the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The nuance here is that Saudi Arabia is one of Iran's main, to put it mildly, competitors in the Middle East , if not an outright hostile political regime.
Putin is compelled to engage personally in all this ‘ shuttle diplomacy’ across Muslim countries due to a complex of military-political, military-technical, and financial circumstances.
Escorted by four Russian Su-35 fighter jets, Putin arrived in the UAE on Wednesday, December, 6, before heading to Saudi Arabia. It is noteworthy that both countries do not recognize the decision of the International Criminal Court, which mandates the arrest of Putin as soon as he sets foot abroad. For Putin, the flight to Arab countries represents a sort of personal breakthrough.
‘The matter goes beyond Putin's desire to show that he is not an "outcast." It is returning of the old Soviet tradition to support Arab states in opposition to Israel and the U.S. in the Middle East, while cloaking these actions in Jesuitical demagoguery about ‘justice’ and alleged adherence to international law. Another aspect is that a significant portion of Russia's population adheres to Islam, and the Kremlin's visit to the Middle East is also an element of Putin's ongoing presidential campaign that has already begun’ Volodymyr Volya says.
Speaking specifically about the United Arab Emirates, Putin's primary concern there revolved around the Kremlin's substantial financial interests. Protecting Kremlin financial flows is crucial for conducting an overt war against Ukraine and engaging in "hybrid" operations against the U.S. and its global allies. This protection is necessary to shield these flows from Western sanctions and control by the U.S. Treasury and European financial structures.
After February 2022, the United Arab Emirates became a kind of alternative center for Russian business activity and international trade, attracting Kremlin-affiliated oil interests that shifted from the EU. Dubai, in particular, has become a hub for Russian money flow, attracting many members of the Russian elite who were politely but firmly asked to leave Western countries after the full-scale invasion into Ukraine.
This fall, American, British, and European officials have noted that there is a steadily increasing volume of dual-use goods being supplied to Russia through the Emirates. The U.S. government was compelled to impose sanctions against a number of companies in the Emirates that were violating the established price ceiling on Russian oil.
UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan referred to Putin as a ‘dear friend,’ highlighting the strengthening of friendly ties and increased trade. The specifics of their closed-door discussions remain unknown, but it is highly likely they touched upon money, oil, and strategies to navigate Western restrictions. In the United Arab Emirates, there is a clear interest in solidifying its status as a kind of ‘Middle Eastern Switzerland,’ attracting businesses from around the globe while ensuring political ‘neutrality’ in a format convenient for dictatorial regimes.
Later, Putin headed to Saudi Arabia, where he met with the de facto head of the state, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In contrast to the UAE, the primary topic of discussion here was indeed oil.
Saudi Arabia and Russia are the major players in the oil market after the United States. They collectively account for about half of OPEC+ production, giving both countries the ability to influence market supply and, consequently, barrel prices. Currently, cartel members, based on official data, are voluntarily cutting production volumes to support prices, ensuring stable export revenues crucial for the Kremlin. With these funds, Moscow, in particular, is arming the occupation force in Ukraine and paying salaries to volunteer fighters and hastily mobilized poorly equipped military personnel. Formally, the Kremlin-backed militants receive around $2,000 per month for their involvement in hostilities against Ukraine , along with additional payments for injuries and fatalities.
‘Putin's visit to the Gulf countries was directly linked to the situation with oil prices. Despite OPEC+ limiting production, prices remain low. Around $75 per barrel is not the price the cartel's members anticipated, having claimed the production cuts. Their goal was $100 per barrel, but they failed. The credibility of Russia in working with the cartel to genuinely cut production instead of engaging in bluffing raises concerns is questionable. Given the global skepticism towards the Kremlin for evident reasons, Putin had to make personal visits to the UAE and Saudi Arabia to convince them of their dedication to OPEC+ policies’ financial and investment analyst Serhii Fursa tell to Apostrophe.
Начало формы
Summing up the recent moves by the Kremlin's cannibal, Putin is currently focused on three things: his recognition (both on the international stage and domestic level in post-‘presidential elections’ Russia), money, and weaponry. Interestingly, these maneuvers coincide with ongoing debates in the U.S. regarding assistance to Ukraine and Israel. There are reports in the British press that the controversial Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban intends to sway the conservative wing of the Republican Party in the U.S. away from supporting Ukraine.
Simultaneously, Russian propaganda has initiated a new campaign targeting Poland and the Baltic nations. Just before heading to Dubai, the Russian ‘fuhrer’ voiced his discontent with what he perceives as ‘Russophobia’ in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. He accused these countries of mistreating their citizents who speak Russian and openly warned that Moscow would respond firmly to such behavior.
The Kremlin's maneuvers around Muslim countries and threats to nonexistent European "Russophobes" are all part of the same military-political strategy. The Kremlin is currently laying the groundwork, anticipating that by 2024-2025, elections in several Western countries, including the U.S., will bring to power forces less inclined to support Ukraine. Kremlin propaganda is actively promoting the idea that, in the event of Donald Trump's victory in the elections, support for Ukraine will be drastically reduced, and the new-old U.S. president will make a decision for the States to withdraw from NATO, casting doubt on the entire architecture of European security.
Given Putin's recent maneuvering, the Kremlin has set its sights on the not-so-distant 2024, preparing for the potential of a large-scale offensive against Ukraine and a ‘hybrid aggression’ against the eastern flank of NATO, according to military expert Colonel (retired) Roman Svitan, speaking to Apostrophe.
‘The Kremlin seems to be preparing for a ‘hybrid aggression’ against NATO, resembling the 2014 Crimea and Donbas scenarios. Using the pretext of ‘protecting Russian speaking people,’ Russian forces, colloquially known as ‘little green men,’ will infiltrate neighboring NATO countries. Local ‘anti-fascist’ groups will conveniently acquire weapons, tanks, and ammunition to meet them. The Russians themselves will maintain a low profile. Simultaneously, the Kremlin will announce a ‘special operation’ along its border regions, serving as a cover for the supply of weapons and militants. This strategy, reminiscent of the military trade between the Rostov region and Donbas since 2014, could become a reality if the West shows vulnerability regarding Ukraine, and the Kremlin secures funds through financial deals in the Persian Gulf countries’, Svitan concludes.
