The U.S. Department of Defense Intelligence Agency published an assessment of the global security environment of 2021, in which the Russian Federation was mentioned several times.
The document was published on the website of the U.S. Senate Armed Forces Committee on the eve of the Senate hearing.
A report by the Pentagon Intelligence Agency says that the main rivals of the United States, China and Russia, seek to challenge Washington's military superiority.In irder to acheve it different strategies are used by the U.S. adversaries ranging from cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns to economic means such as sanctions.
The Russian Federation’s Armed Forces are called an existential threat to the United State. According to the document, Kremlin’s military is “a potent tool designed to maintain influence over the states along its periphery, compete with U.S. global primacy, and compel adversaries who challenge Russia’s vital national interests”. In addition, Moscow “continues to invest in its strategic nuclear forces, in new capabilities to enhance its strategic deterrent and that place the U.S. homeland at risk, and in capabilities that improve its conventional warfighting”.
Importantly, Moscow views the United States and NATO as the principal threat to Russian security, its geo-political ambitions, and the preservation of the ruling regime. And therefore, according to the document, “employs a range of political, economic, diplomatic, intelligence, societal and military activities below the threshold of direct conflict to compete with the West, and that is aimed at disrupting NATO’s cohesion and its ability to formulate effective policies to counter Russian malign influence Informational and influence operations offer the Kremlin cost-effective and deniable means to achieve its objectives”.
The report says that Russia specifically targets NATO member states vulnerable to Russian influence — not only those with historical, cultural, or religious affinities to Russia but also those with issues of corruption, disaffected populations, or weak economies — to shape policies on key issues, such as NATO basing and transit rights or deployment of ballistic missile defense. Moscow also seeks to undermine NATO’s commitment to collective defense.
U.S. intelligence notes that Russia has significantly modernized its military forces and increased its nuclear arsenal over several years with non-strategic meanі, violating treaties it sees as overly constraining and adhering to those aligned with its strategic interests. In addition, the report mentioned Russia’s use of novel chemical weapons.
“Russia’s use of the military grade nerve agent Novichok in a 2018 assassination attempt on UK soil and the August 2020 Novichok poisoning of Russian opposition leader Aleksey Navalny indicate Russia retains an undeclared chemical weapons program. In June 2020, the U.S. Government noted continued concerns regarding Russian activities related to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) stating available information does not allow the U.S. to conclude that Russia has fulfilled its BWC Article II obligation to destroy or to divert to peaceful purpose BW items specified under the BWC’s Article I of its past BW program. The U.S. also has concerns that Russia’s pharmaceutical-based agents program is for offensive purposes."
At the same time, the document addressed Russia’s military presence in Eastern Ukraine, recent deployments on the Crimean peninsula and continuing deterrence of Western naval and air operations, project military power in the region, signaling its resolve to retain the peninsula.
The authors of the report, however, noted that Moscow is not interested in a direct confrontation with the United States now.
“The Kremlin likely will seek to avoid provoking Washington, but may do so if it perceives U.S. interference in Russian domestic politics or other threats to Russian strategic interests,” the report says.