The Russian-Ukrainian war may end this year, but not in the way Ukrainians dreamed - the Kremlin may freeze the "conflict" while Russian troops remain in the occupied territories and the supply of Western weapons and negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO will stop.
This opinion was expressed in the German newspaper Die Welt.
The newspaper notes that such a scenario is likely due to the "irresponsible actions of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz" and other Western politicians.
Thus, several factors indicate a possible freezing of the war in Ukraine.
In particular, the fact that none of the sides has a significant advantage on the battlefield, while the war leads to the depletion of both military and material resources. Considering this, the conclusion of a "peace" agreement is unlikely.
At the same time, in case of Ukraine's loss, according to the "frozen conflict" scenario, it will be able to save face and avoid a major defeat.
"Now the question is: will this conflict last for years? Most likely not. Instead, there are many reasons to believe that it will be frozen this year," the article says.
The publication emphasizes that Ukraine is unlikely to return the occupied territories this year. It is quite possible that Kyiv will have to focus on holding the current front line. However, it is too early to draw definite conclusions, and it is likely that Ukraine will face new attacks from Russia this year, which could lead to significant territorial losses.
Military experts emphasize that Ukraine will have to cede territory this summer if the West does not provide significant military aid in the near future.
"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently stated that the West has provided only 30 percent of the promised equipment. Despite Kyiv's pleas, there is every reason to believe that the situation will not change," the journalists add.
The publication suggests that US military aid will be drastically reduced, regardless of the outcome of the election. Europe, on the other hand, does not have the strength and political will to provide the necessary assistance with weapons on its own.
Earlier we wrote about five scenarios of French assistance to Ukraine.