Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier and blogger Kyrylo Sazonov, who is part of the so-called pool of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, noted the somewhat strange actions of the Russian occupiers towards Pokrovsk, mentioning the rather complicated logistics and assault on the city for the enemy, large losses, and lack of strategic sense.
He wrote about this in Telegram.
He emphasized the need to consider several related areas at once, paying attention to the Donetsk region.
"Back in the fall, I wrote that Pokrovsk looks a bit strange. The logistics and assault on the city are quite difficult for the occupiers. And they risk catching up with Bakhmut or Avdiivka in terms of losses. At the same time, there is no strategic sense there at all. To reach the borders of the Donetsk region? It is politically logical here, but to all the borders. And not in a separate place. There are no terrible blows to our logistics, it does not create strategic advantages or threats for us," the blogger says.
He emphasizes that strategically Pokrovsk itself logically pulled towards an auxiliary direction: "Secondary. Distracting. The main support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the basis of the Ukrainian Donbas now (and a year ago, and three) is different. Locals will say without looking at the map. The main goal is the agglomeration "Kostyantynovka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk". Capture it by storm or encirclement - that's it. We are really losing the Donetsk region."
It's just that the enemy had successes at Pokrovsk, according to Sazonov, but not at Kostyantynivka and the Lymansky direction. That's why he calls Pokrovsk's exclusively political significance and "the mention in the news became higher."
The capture of the Slavyansk-Kostyantynovka agglomeration, he explains, has two scenarios according to the map:
"Logical and with a ten-year plan. Logical - an offensive in the Lyman direction, cutting the route from Sloviansk to Kharkiv. And the formation of a large Donetsk cauldron for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This would be a catastrophe. Not just the loss of Donetsk Oblast, but a general strategic failure in the entire war."
At the same time, he points out that in the Liman direction, despite all efforts, the enemy never achieved any tactical successes. He only mentions the endless battles for small bridgeheads on the river bank and the eternal confrontation in the Sribnyansky forest.
The scenario with a conditional "10-year calculation" comments as follows:
"Sequentially take Kostyantynivka from the South, then Druzhkivka, then Kramatorsk and then Sloviansk. It's unrealistic. It's just that in terms of size, none of the four cities are Bakhmut or Avdiivka. However, the enemy was forced to go just like that. To nowhere. What's the result? Everything is on the map. From the south to Konstakha, the road goes through Toretsk, from the east - through Chasiv Yar. The fighting for Toretsk has been going on since July last year. For Chasyk - for over a year now."
In addition, the blogger emphasizes that during the Chasiv Yar, the enemy has had zero success at all:
"... zero success in general. As for Toretsk - they announced the capture on February 7, but in reality they were rejected and the fighting in the city continues. The 8th Army has already replaced the 51st Army of the Russian Federation. Which was supposed to storm Konstakha from the start. But it got stuck, like the previous one. Now they have been rushing to Panteleimonovka for a week, advanced 2 km and got stuck. The goal is to cut off our advance, but there are clearly not enough resources. They got stuck again. And without solving this problem, there is no way out."
The conclusion, in his opinion, is obvious - the entire major offensive on Pokrovsk was of a secondary nature for the enemy. The main thing is further east:
"They've already put a bunch of people on Pokrovsky, they're stopped. In general, it's bad. Of the two scenarios, they chose the most unrealistic one. And they persisted with the implementation. Will Moscow be able to take the Donetsk region by autumn or winter with such success? No. It won't be able to. Never."
Recall that earlier DeepState named the most difficult areas of the front .