Given the inability of Russians to gain a military victory in Ukraine by conventional forces, the leadership of the Russian Federation probably decided to organize a provocation by Russian special forces under the guise of Ukrainians at the "object S" of the RF Strategic Nuclear Forces in Belgorod-22 in order to justify the use of nuclear weapons in Donbas.
This was stated the Head of the Centre for Defense Reforms, the coordinator of the interdepartmental platform on hybrid threat countermeasures, which operates within Ukraine-NATO cooperation, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk on his Facebook page with reference to intelligence.
"In the face of the apparent inability of the Russian Armed Forces to gain a military victory in Ukraine by conventional forces, the Russian leadership is looking for opportunities to use nuclear weapons in the Donbas. According to Russian nuclear doctrine, the use of nuclear weapons by Russia includes the use of nuclear weapons (or other weapons of mass destruction) against Russia or the impact on the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation, which could lead to their decommissioning", - he said.
"According to information received from the intelligence community, as of early April 2022, Russian intelligence services were exploring the possibility of organizing a provocation that would accuse Ukraine of creating such threats. In particular, the Russians considered the option of capturing one of the objects of the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation by persons who will pretend to be servicemen of the Armed Forces, Azov fighters or representatives of the "Right Sector". Along with the seizure of the object, the possibility of sabotage under the Ukrainian flag or a fire strike was also considered", - Danyliuk reported.
"The most probable object of the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation, where such a provocation may take place, is "object S", one of the central bases for the preservation of nuclear munitions, located in Belgorod-22 (Grayvoron and Golovchino, Belgorod region) in several kilometers from the border with Ukraine (Sumy region)", - the expert stated.
"Statements by Russian officials and propagandists about the need to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, as well as the introduction of a terrorist threat regime in the regions adjacent to Ukraine, indicate a high probability that the Russian leadership has already decided to carry out such a provocation", - Oleksandr V. Danylyuk summed up.
Earlier, the Pentagon, assessing the Russia's war against Ukraine, stated that Putin had no strength left, except for the threats of using nuclear weapons.
On April 11, the Head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov announced that Russian troops would continue to advance in Ukraine as well as to stick to the plans of taking Kyiv, threatening to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.