On Tuesday, June 4, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) will consider the submission of 62 people's deputies on the constitutionality of the decree of the President Volodymyr Zelensky on the dissolution of Parliament and the appointment of early elections. The CCU can in one form or another make comments to Zelensky about his decree, but it is still a matter of concern whether this will lead to the cancellation of the elections. "Apostrophe" tried to learn why in any case the holding of elections on the 21st of July is threatened and whether Zelensky is can once more to dissolve the Parliament than rather than form a coalition with someone from the old political forces.
"The constitutional court is planning to become an accomplice to disrupt the early parliamentary elections," leader of the party “Batkivshchyna” Yulia Tymoshenko sharply responded to the decision of the Constitutional Court to draw into question the first decree of the newly elected President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Other deputies agree with this assessment of the court's actions, who rightly believe that the CCU is playing a giveaway with the Parliament, demonstrating its loyalty to the fifth President Petro Poroshenko.
"Poroshenko understands that his "European solidarity" may not get into the Parliament of the new convocation, so he will try to keep the influence as long as possible. Every day of the party's stay in power still brings him dividends," says one of the deputies of the Petro Poroshenko Block.
However, other interlocutors of "Apostrophe" in Parliament are also convinced that early elections can not take place on July, 21, and the situation in the Verkhovna Rada can develop under two independent scenarios.
The first scenario. To postpone the election date for the beginning of autumn
If deputies during this plenary week are not be able to vote for the law "On public procurement", according to the current procedure, the Central Election Commission will not have time to print ballots and prepare the electoral process in time.
This is the most likely scenario, on which during the last two weeks CEC and the Committee of voters of Ukraine openly warned.
"The current law on public procurement does not give the opportunity to purchase all the necessary goods and services. There are 55 days left until the day of voting, in fact, we see that the most critical situation is related to the ballots, that is, we will have only 17 days to purchase ballots... We are ready to work in any regime, so that these elections take place, but we need tools to move clearly according to the procedure," the Secretary of the Commission Natalia Bernatskaia told to reporters.
At the same time, according to the Chairman of the Commission Tetiana Slipachuk, two months before elections it is impossible to pass the law on the spur of the moment as electoral rights of citizens are violated.
"Since last year, we have repeatedly appealed to the Parliament to adopt the relevant laws on time," Slipachuk complains. According to her, "a day or two" remained to make the necessary decisions, after that the opportunities for tender procedures will be reduced.
In a situation where the law is still not adopted, the election date will have to be postponed.
According to the interlocutors of "Apostrophe", related to the team of the current President, Volodymyr Zelensky himself is interested in postponing the election date.
According to the interlocutors of "Apostrophe", related to the team of the current President, Volodymyr Zelensky himself is interested in postponing the election date.
Как убеждены собеседники "Апострофа", приближенные к команде действующего президента, в отсрочке даты выборов заинтересован и сам Владимир Зеленский.
"His team is still confident that his voters are young people who are going away for the summer. And in order to ensure maximum turnout for the elections, it is best to postpone the voting day to the beginning of September," one of the representatives of the Parliament told to “Apostrophe”.
The postponement of the election date is also beneficial to individual deputies, especially those who intend to try their luck in the majority districts.
"There is little time left for the election campaign. Therefore, even one or two additional months for preparation can make a significant difference. And the rating of Zelensky will go down every day, so the chances of getting a mandate increase," says one of the deputies.
Second scenario. To re-dissolve the Parliament
"Apostrophe" came into possession of the internal document of the party "Servant of the people" with a detailed sociology of support for political forces in the early parliamentary elections, which may be held on the 21st of July.
Thus, if the elections were held last weekend, the party of the newly elected President would be supported by no more than 35% of voters. This suggests that the "Servant of the people" in the new Parliament, most likely, will have about 90 deputies on the lists and no more than 50-60 on the majority system. The majority with such number of deputies won't turn out. Accordingly, the President's party will have to form a coalition with other political forces.
Given the specifics of the formation of personnel policy in Zelensky's team, it will be extremely difficult for the new President to find allies among the old and new political forces. Therefore, the President's team is seriously considering the possibility of re-dissolution of Parliament, sources of "Apostrophe" say.
However, the current President will not be able to do this without violating the Constitution of Ukraine. According to the Constitution of Ukraine, powers of the Verkhovna Rada elected at extraordinary elections held after early termination of the President of Ukraine of powers of the Verkhovna Rada of the previous convocation may not be terminated within one year from the date of its election.
However, the interlocutors of "Apostrophe" in the Parliament are convinced that the team of the current President and dismissed this convocation with violations of constitutional norms. So Zelensky may try again to dissolve the Parliament.
However, not many people believe in the realism of such a scenario. Far more deputies are convinced that elections of the Verkhovna Rada will take place, and its activity will be the shortest one. "Most likely, Zelensky will dissolve the new Parliament, but a year later, when the Constitution allows it," says one of the leaders of a large parliamentary party in the Parliament.
Such assumptions are indirectly confirmed by other politicians who are reluctant to report their political ambitions and are increasingly making decisions not to participate in the upcoming elections.
"None of the reasonable politicians will want to be associated with the most disastrous work of the Parliament for all time. In a year, maybe the President will be changed. It is better to watch from the sidelines,", deputies predict dreaming a bit.
