US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US National Security Advisor Michael Walz say that in order to stop Russia's war against Ukraine, the States are conducting "shuttle diplomacy". That is, they are holding separate meetings and negotiations with delegations from Russia and Ukraine. As part of "shuttle diplomacy", Trump had telephone conversations with Putin, curtsied to him and put pressure on Zelensky. But it is known that "shuttle diplomacy" does not always succeed. We have seen this repeatedly. What is "shuttle diplomacy", in which cases does it work, and what to do if the conflicting parties, or one of them, does not want to negotiate - in the material "Apostrophe".
Successful "shuttle diplomacy"
On October 6, 1973, during the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur ("Day of Atonement"), the armies of Egypt and Syria crossed the ceasefire lines in the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights and began an offensive deep into Israeli territory. The prerequisites for the conflict were the desire of Egypt and Syria to return the territories lost during the 1967 Six-Day War with Israel. Later, other Arab states joined Syria and Egypt: Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya. Some of these countries sent a military contingent, while others helped with weapons and military equipment. On the side of the Arab countries, the USSR, as well as Cuba and the German Democratic Republic, intervened in the war.
The fighting lasted 18 days. The war ended with an Israeli victory, but it was not possible to establish a lasting peace in the region. And then the role of mediator in establishing a lasting peace was taken on by the United States, namely Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Since the Arabs refused to negotiate with the Israelis, and the Israelis with the Arabs, Kissinger traveled from one Arab capital to another, as well as to Israel and Moscow in order to conclude an agreement. As a result, he succeeded in doing so. In May 1974, at the initiative of the United States, an Agreement on Disengagement was signed between Israel and Syria. An emergency UN military force was introduced into the region and a force was created to monitor the disengagement.
In the same way, Kissinger managed to normalize relations between the United States and China. This method of negotiating and resolving conflicts has been called “shuttle diplomacy.” And it is Henry Kissinger who is considered its founder.
"Shuttle diplomacy is a tactic when a mediator negotiates with the conflicting parties, trying to find a common ground without direct contact between them. This method is used quite often. It was also used to defuse tensions between the USSR and the USA," international expert Stanislav Zhelikhovsky explains to Apostrophe.
Another example of successful shuttle diplomacy is the 1995 Dayton Accords, which ended the nearly four-year war between Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The mediator between the warring parties was American diplomat Richard Holbrooke. For this, he was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
"Shuttle diplomacy" backed by force
"But such tactics do not always guarantee success, it depends on several key factors. For success, first of all, there must be a mutual interest in reaching some kind of agreement. After all, if at least one of the parties sees a benefit in prolonging the conflict or in continuing hostilities, diplomacy will falter. And here, for success, there must be pressure on the party that does not want to negotiate," Zhelikhovsky continues.
An example of such tactics is the war between Yugoslavia and Kosovo. It, by the way, was also stopped by Holdbrooke. True, in this case, the “shuttle diplomacy” had to be reinforced by force, since Yugoslavia did not agree to any agreements. In the end, NATO troops entered Kosovo and ousted the Yugoslav military. On June 12, 1999, in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1244, international forces entered Kosovo.
Failed "shuttle diplomacy"
We don't have to look far for examples of failed "shuttle diplomacy." In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande tried to use "shuttle diplomacy" to end the war in Donbas. We know the result.
Using the method of "shuttle diplomacy", the leaders of European countries also tried to prevent a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. They went to Putin, talked with him at a long table, promised some "candy". European leaders also came to Kyiv with some proposals. We remember how Emmanuel Macron tried to persuade Putin not to start the invasion, and offered Ukraine to partially cede its sovereignty in order to " save face " for Putin. The result is also known.
Already during the full-scale war in Ukraine, China tried to use "shuttle diplomacy". Its special representative Li Hui met with the leaders of European countries, was in Moscow and Kyiv. But there was no result here either.
Well, there's no need to mention Viktor Orban's "shuttle diplomacy" at all.
Trump's "shuttle diplomacy"
Donald Trump's entourage also claims to be using "shuttle diplomacy" to end the war in Ukraine. Trump praises Putin, makes all sorts of concessions to him, for example, withdrawing the United States from the international group investigating crimes of aggression against Ukraine and curtailing the activities of the War Crimes Analysis Group, created to hold Russians accountable, and stops funding Radio Liberty, which criticized the Kremlin regime and reported on Putin's crimes, both in Ukraine and in Russia. And here the question arises, is Trump's "shuttle diplomacy" successful?
"I think this is not very likely. There will be no great successes, " emphasizes Stanislav Zhelikhovsky. "As we see, Putin is dragging out the negotiation process, and Trump is demonstrating his weaknesses to him. For example, Trump emphasizes that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. This, in my opinion, is a wrong position. Because it was clear that the Kremlin would use this thesis in its own interests. So Trump, in his own words, could have kept this trump card up his sleeve and not thrown it away, even before sitting down at the gaming table."
The expert believes that another weak position of Trump is that the American president has demonstrated that he can stop arms supplies to Ukraine along with intelligence data.
"And this encourages Putin, he sees that he can control Trump and is already putting this forward as one of the possible conditions for a ceasefire. This is, of course, unacceptable for us, but also for the American side. It should be interested in the ceasefire lasting longer," Zhelikhovsky told the publication.
"In addition, Trump is in conflict with his EU allies, with Canada. And Putin senses this chaos and feels more confident and does not want to go to negotiations, but throws a carrot in the form of some hotels. And Trump is leading on Putin's carrot. Trump has driven himself into a very difficult situation and the "shuttle diplomacy" he is carrying out does not look like the path to real peace," the expert notes.
"Sometimes shuttle diplomacy works, sometimes it doesn't. It depends on the specific situation, but most importantly, it depends on the desire of the parties to achieve a result. As the telephone conversation showed, there is no such desire on Putin's part," Oleksandr Merezhko, the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine's Committee on Foreign Policy and Interparliamentary Cooperation, said in a conversation with Apostrophe .
"If Trump wants to achieve a result, he should give the Russian elite a signal that Putin must be eliminated, because Putin is not capable of negotiating," the MP emphasizes.
"Trump needs to force Putin to make peace," former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko briefly noted in an interview with Apostrophe.
And Stanislav Zhelikhovsky named the methods of such coercion.
" Trump needs to strengthen Ukraine, win over China and the countries of the Global South. I hope that Trump will finally wake up and act ," the expert summed up.
Oleksandr Merezhko called the result of Trump's "shuttle diplomacy".
"Trump is unlikely to be able to make a deal with Putin," the MP noted.
Genosse Hitler
Finally, it is worth mentioning another example of “shuttle diplomacy”, which took place long before its “invention” by Kissinger. In November 1940, when World War II was already raging in Europe, the People’s Commissar for Foreign Affairs of the USSR, Comrade Molotov, arrived in Berlin as part of “shuttle diplomacy” to meet with his friend Hitler. The USSR wanted to become the fourth representative of the fascist axis of Berlin-Rome-Tokyo and complete the redivision of the world, which had begun a year earlier with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. But the appetites of the Kremlin dictator Stalin, which Molotov outlined, seemed very excessive to the German friends and this agreement fell through.
And in December, Japan attacked the American base at Pearl Harbor, starting the war in the Pacific. At the same time, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill arrived in Washington on a secret visit to meet with US President Roosevelt. Thus began the formation of the anti-Hitler coalition. Well, everyone knows what happened next.
