The increase in excise taxes on automotive fuel in Ukraine at the beginning of 2025 led to its price increase, but prices at gas stations soon stabilized. Moreover, recently, fuel has been noticeably cheaper at retail. "Apostrophe" found out what this trend is connected with, and what will happen to the prices of gasoline, diesel and autogas in the future.
Prices for gasoline, diesel fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas in Ukraine began to decline in mid-March.
After a significant increase in fuel prices at the beginning of the year due to the increase in excise duties on it from January 1, the cost of gasoline, diesel and autogas remained stable for several months. However, in mid-March there was a rather sharp decrease in prices - if on the 17th the average retail price of A-95 gasoline was 56.66 hryvnias/liter, then on the 18th it was 56.43 hryvnias/liter. Diesel fuel fell in price, respectively, from 55.13 hryvnias/liter to 54.8 hryvnias/liter. The trend for liquefied gas is not so noticeable, but it is also there - 36.93 hryvnias/liter versus 36.85 hryvnias/liter.
The decline in prices for automotive fuel continues, and as of March 24, one liter of A-95 gasoline at gas stations cost an average of 55.7 hryvnias, diesel fuel - 54.3 hryvnias, and autogas - 36.35 hryvnias.
The temporary became permanent
Why is fuel getting cheaper?
The main reason is the decline in global oil prices.
"If at the beginning of the year the price was $75 (per barrel), then it rose to $82 in just a month, now it's $70. That is, such swings ," explained Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group, in a comment to Apostrophe. "Accordingly, this has pulled down the price tag in Ukraine as well."
Another question is why the price decline is happening only now, because oil prices have been at their current level for some time.
"Enough prerequisites have been gathered to lower prices ," says Serhiy Kuyun. "This was preceded by a creeping decline in the form of promotions in large chains on weekends for several weeks, then there were attempts in smaller chains, and all this led to larger-scale changes."
Weekend promotions likely played a key role in the current decline in motor fuel prices.
"The traffic there was quite serious, sometimes up to 6 hryvnias per liter," Naftorinka expert Oleksandr Sirenko told Apostrophe.
At the same time, not all gas stations and not always returned prices to their previous values after weekend promotions, and if they did increase them, then not to the levels that were before the promotional offers.
"This became noticeable, unfortunately, only at the end of February and even more actively in March. And, indeed, around March 17, the real movement began," Oleksandr Sirenko summarized.
Unstable oil
So, we seem to have figured out why fuel prices are falling. But how long will this trend last?
"We hope that there is still potential for a drop, and I think that we still have one hryvnia (per liter) ," says Serhiy Kuyun. " This could happen within a few weeks."
But in general, much will depend on world oil prices (as well as on the hryvnia exchange rate, which has been quite stable recently).
There are now expectations of a drop in oil prices, in particular, as a result of the implementation of US President Donald Trump's plans, although it is still difficult to say how events will actually develop (for example, this week began with a slight increase in oil prices).
Uncertainty with oil quotes forces operators of the domestic oil products market, at a minimum, to take their time in reducing retail fuel prices.
"Oil is such an unstable story, and then it will be difficult to raise (retail prices) and explain that it is not their fault, but oil ," explains Oleksandr Sirenko. " Secondly, their sales are falling, and, whatever one may say, the reason is the war (people are fighting, people are dying, people are afraid of being mobilized and drive less, people continue to flee the country). Therefore, gas stations should earn more, and we pay for everything."
To summarize, if oil prices remain low and the hryvnia exchange rate remains stable, fuel prices in Ukraine will also be stable and likely even decrease slightly. Conversely, if oil prices rise and the hryvnia weakens significantly, fuel prices will increase.
Who has gas in their car?
It is worth saying a few words about autogas separately. The prices for this type of fuel depend on oil prices to a lesser extent than for gasoline and diesel. In addition, this market has its own characteristics.
"The tax on it has increased very significantly - by 6 hryvnias (per liter) , - says Serhiy Kuyun. - In addition, the European situation is very bad now. In December, an embargo on the supply of Russian liquefied gas to Europe came into effect. Large volumes went to Poland, and from there to us. This channel has closed, and now the Poles are forced to transport more expensive gas, usually "sea" (i.e. brought by sea - "Apostrophe"), and this, of course, affects the price."
Consumers are used to the fact that the price of autogas is about half the price of gasoline, but now this ratio exceeds 60%.
"Such a disparity arose not only because gas prices have risen, but also because gasoline has become cheaper in the world, because there is a certain overproduction of it," the expert explained.
The relative disadvantage of the price of liquefied gas is the reason why motorists are refueling with it less and less often.
"Gas retailers are crying - there are no people," says Oleksandr Sirenko.
Will it get cheaper further?
"It's hard to say ," Sirenko honestly admits. " So far, the developments are on the consumer's side, and the price is falling."
