As the moderate wing of the Democratic Party consolidated in their support for former Vice President Joe Biden, Ukraine is likely to find itself in the middle of the U.S. 2020 presidential race – again. With Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Mike Bloomberg all dropping out and supporting Mr. Biden, the latter gained a noticeable delegate lead over former socialist frontrunner, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Biden’s ex-rivals Beto O’Rourke, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker have joined the so-called Joementum as well. The former United States Secretary of the Army and American University professor Louis Caldera shared his thoughts on the race and Ukraine’s future role in a potential Trump vs. Biden stand-off.
- Interestingly, Mr. Bloomberg ended his presidential campaign and endorsed Mr. Biden. How does it change the race? Will Biden get more votes now that Bloomberg is out? Also, will Bloomberg invest his millions in Joe Biden’s informational campaign?
- The democratic primary election is now a two-person race between the moderate former Vice President Biden who promises progressive but incremental change and the liberal Senator Sanders who promises an anti-corporate revolution. The exit of former candidates Bloomberg, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg, who also were competing for the support of moderate Democrats, but who have all now endorsed Biden, has helped him consolidate the support of the 2/3 of Democratic voters who were never for Sanders. Bloomberg’s promise to continue to spend millions to defeat Trump will also be very helpful to Mr. Biden.
Bernie Sanders rally
- Whose support is more important for Mr. Biden – Bloomberg’s or his younger counterparts’, like Buttigieg and Klobuchar?
- Bloomberg, in the long run because of the money, organization and internet savvy he brings, but Buttigieg’s exit and endorsement just before Super Tuesday voting began - and Klobuchar’s - was also tremendously important to signaling who the most viable alternative to Sanders was. It made it possible for Biden to rack up all the wins he got and thereby to gain the delegate lead.
- What about Sanders? Senator Elizabeth Warren has exited the race. Will it help Bernie Sanders?
- Some of Warren’s votes will go to Sanders, but she has not endorsed him and her critique of his ability to get anything done means voters who supported her, such as college-educated women, may instead now go to Mr. Biden.
- If Biden is the Democratic nominee, how much will both he and Trump use the Ukrainian card? What should Ukraine expect?
- Ukraine will likely feature prominently as part of the election, although it will not be the most important issue that separates the candidates. Republicans will continue to try to smear Mr. Biden with accusations that he did something wrong although they have not explained what Mr. Biden did that was unlawful under Ukrainian law that was not unlawful under U.S. law? If it was - and the U.S. has very strict anti-corruption laws - he would have been investigated and prosecuted under US law. The fact that he wasn't seems to evidence that the point was to use a foreign investigation to smear him and create doubts about his integrity and no more. Democrats, on the other hand, will not forget that Mr. Trump our his personal political interests over his duty as president to faithfully execute the laws and his obligations to an ally of the U.S. in need in a time of war. Trump’s dalliances with Putin and Russia and apparent abuse of power that got him impeached - that maybe helped get him elected in the first place - will continue to motivate Democrats to seek his defeat notwithstanding his acquittal by the Republican-controlled Senate.
- Нow can the Ukrainegate scandal – featured prominently in a potential Biden-Trump race – affect the relations between Ukraine and the U.S.?
- I believe there will continue to be bi-partisan support in Congress for standing with Ukraine as a bulwark against Russian aggression and adventurism in Europe, including providing Ukraine funding for military assistance and equipment whatever Mr. Trump’s personal preferences may be in accommodating Mr. Putin or demanding Europe do more. There will be those like Mr. Giuliani and some Republican senators who will continue to demand investigations as a cover for Mr. Trump's discredited allegations against the Bidens. Ukraine will be wise to do more publicly to combat corruption while resisting pressure to do things that would be seen as taking sides in the American election. While domestic issues will be most prominent in the election, reasserting U.S. leadership in the world in support of democracy, our allies, and against authoritarian regimes is likely to be a prominent part of the Democrats' case against Mr. Trump. One unknown, of course, the possibility, extent, and nature of Russian interference in the election on behalf of Mr. Trump.
- Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Donald Trump are all above 70 years old. What does it say about the American electorate? Why is it difficult for young politicians to lead the race?
- I believe it means voters value what they believe they know and have come to learn about someone they have seen in action over decades of service in government. Joe Biden has personal relationships with thousands of democratically elected officials, party leaders, union leaders, donors and activists and has been in scores of political fights with people who feel loyalty to him for it. In a time of crisis - the need to defeat Trump - they wanted first and foremost a candidate who can win. In other years, they may feel more of the luxury of trying someone brand new or breaking barriers in whom they nominate. This was not the year for that kind of candidate. Bernie Sanders still represents that new, revolutionary candidate, but Joe Biden just showed the most Democrats think the known, tried and tested candidate gives them the best chance of defeating Trump.
