As a self-proclaimed Democratic socialist Bernie Sanders has suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden, the latter became the Democrats’ de-facto nominee. Biden, however, will face a plethora of challenges in attracting and convincing Sanders’ supporters that Donald Trump’s reelection is America’s most dangerous threat. The wild card is COVID-19, as President Trump’s response to the pandemic has been far from ideal. The former United States Secretary of the Army and American University professor Louis Caldera shared his thoughts on the presidential race.
Given the recent election trends, it was clear that Bernie Sanders had no chance to catch up to Joe Biden's lead in delegates or to capture the nomination. If he stayed in the race, he could only play the spoiler role: attacking Biden, making him spend money on the primary, and delaying the day he could turn to organizing his general election campaign. He would have made many enemies by doing that and would have had less influence on the party platform and Joe's campaign going forward. By exiting, he builds goodwill instead. Many of his own campaign advisers were telling him that was the best thing to do. However, he is only "suspending" his campaign, meaning his name will still be on the ballot, and he will continue to earn delegates if enough people vote for him. That also strengthens his claim to be able to play a prominent role in the Democratic convention - assuming there is one.
Bernie Sanders’ ideas have already greatly influenced the direction the Democratic Party is taking on health care and other issues. Whether he can get his supporters to embrace Biden is another matter. Many of his supporters don't like establishment – moderate Democrats like Biden – and will have a tough time warming up to him. Biden has to reach out and win them over directly, and he has started trying to do so.
Those who supported Bernie did so because they wanted a revolution, and they are not very happy with the idea of having to settle for what they were trying to defeat: the establishment, middle of the road, a politician who talks about being able to work with Republicans to get things done. They don't want to hear that, and they think such a candidate will not deliver the change the country needs. Biden will have to find a way to excite them and convince them Trump would be even worse on the issues they care about. But on a personal level, he doesn't connect easily or well with this younger audience and that may be hurt him.
While Vice President Biden does have realistic chances to win the presidency, it could be very close. Trump will run as a "war time" president who deserves the country's support in a time of crisis. The Republicans will use all the tools they have to suppress the Democratic vote, including by things like forcing in-person voting during an epidemic. High voter turnout helps the Democrats; low turnout helps the Republicans. Biden, in turn, will have a shortened window to organize his campaign, and he will be underfunded compared to Trump. Moreover, he is working against an electoral college map that favors Trump. The wild card, however, is COVID-19: if there are many deaths and if there is high unemployment in the fall, Trump’s failure to respond quickly and effectively may not be forgotten, and it may hurt Republicans up and down the ballot. If the economy is recovering and the death toll was less than originally estimated, the chaos and missteps may fade from the memory of Donald Trump’s core supporters.
