Ongoing political strife in the U.S. pits Texas and 25 states against the federal government over migration policies. The dispute deepens existing societal divides. However, solving this problem is not beneficial for everyone. Explore potential resolutions and implications for Ukraine in the Apostrophe article.
Power and compromise
As per experts interviewed by Apostrophe, the current situation is deemed precarious but presently manageable.
‘In my opinion, we somehow overestimate the depth of ongoing developments when we see headlines that the United States is on the verge of civil war’, political scientist Dmytro Levus suggests.
Experts interviewed by Apostrophe highlight an exceedingly low likelihood of Washington resorting to force, mainly due to extensive support for Texas from numerous states.
‘Under the Constitution, Biden lacks influence over state governors, as they wield autonomous authority, unaffected by the President's support or lack thereof. This holds particularly true in wealthy states like Texas’, professor of the Department of International Relations of the National Aviation University Maksym Yali says.
He underscores the contrast with Ukrainian norms, where the president appoints and can dismiss regional administrators at will if they has not lived up to expectations.
Officially, the U.S. President holds the authority to commandeer the state's National Guard. However, White House spokesperson Karin Jean-Pierre stated that this option is presently off the table.
Elections continue
The escalating situation is tied to the upcoming presidential elections. Currently, as the primaries enter a new phase with internal party elections. While Biden faces no Democratic contenders, Trump is in a competitive race with Nikki Haley for the Republican nomination.
March 5, dubbed Super Tuesday, holds the potential to shape outcomes, with simultaneous primaries in 15 states and 1 U.S. overseas territory. Over a third of party congress delegates will be decided on this crucial day. And until then, new political points should be earned.
‘The focus here is on challenging Biden's stance, particularly criticizing his migration policy. It is evident that border protection is a central theme in Donald Trump's election strategy. While the Texas governor initiated the move, these actions align with Donald Trump's thinking and position’, Yali suggests.
This development is not coincidental, occurring in the aftermath of Trump's triumph in the New Hampshire primary on January 23.
‘Donald Trump's prospects in the primaries are further on the rise, prompting a realignment within the political hierarchy. Congress members, senators, and governors are aligning with Trump, aiming to garner political points. Anticipating potential purges once he assumes the presidency, 25 Republican governors swiftly backing this initiative is no coincidence’, Yali explains.
Yet, Trump's intra-party competitor, Nikki Haley, is leveraging this scenario to her benefit. She, like Donald Trump, has expressed backing for Texas. It is doubtful that this will help her much, though.
The only one potentially facing a decline in ratings due to the Texas escalation is Joe Biden.
‘While Biden's core supporters may remain largely unaffected, the situation could influence independent voters, those not aligned with either party, who make last-minute decisions. A weak president does not please anyone. And the potential for such developments underscores Biden's weakness’, Yali suggests.
Paralysis and Assistance for Ukraine
It is worth noting that the pending legislation, addressing border security, assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, has been stalled for an extended period. Negotiators in the US Senate appeared to have reached a breakthrough on Friday, January 26, with a new agreement to curb illegal migration. According to sources briefed on the negotiations, CNN reported that the Senate deal is anticipated to be disclosed as early as next week.
Simultaneously, at least from a political perspective, addressing the migration issue before the elections is disadvantageous for Republicans.
‘Trump would ideally favor no compromises and a lack of resolution on the issue. His tactics is creating a prolonged and tense situation, maintaining uncertainty until the elections’, Levus emphasizes.
As of Wednesday, January 24, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell indicated privately that his party plans to postpone reaching an agreement on the border situation, allowing Donald Trump to exploit it for political advantage, according to NBC News sources.
An individual familiar with the discussions asserts that a substantial number of members within the Republican Party are not inclined towards reaching an agreement on migrants.
However, there is positive news for Ukraine. Potential separation of bills concerning border protection and aid for Ukraine and Israel is considered.
In the recent U.S. presidential election, political strategists characterized the Biden-Trump rivalry as ‘Fear versus Anger.’ Trump capitalized on the anger and discontent of a segment of Americans, while Democrats leveraged fears, portraying Trump as ‘demonic.’ The initial season unfolded in 2020 amid the pandemic, with Fear prevailing over Anger, leading to Joe Biden's presidency. This paradigm endures, but the current Anger sentiment is more potent. As long as it remains effective, presidential candidates will harness it, despite the potential for deepening social divisions, prioritizing victory in the elections.
