Experts unveil five most likely scenarios of Russia's war against Ukraine. They don't include both: absolute victory or loss of Ukraine, but they list the most likely scenarios for the development in 2024.
This is stated in the forecast of the security organization GLOBSEC.
Total destabilization: 27.26%
Analysts believe that, with a probability of 27.26%, the aggression of the Russian Federation will expand and go beyond Ukraine due to the implementation of hydride actions and proxy forces by the Kremlin. We can expect increased tension and direct conflicts in the Middle East (Israel-Iran), in the Pacific-Asian region (China-Taiwan), in the Balkans (Serbia-Kosovo). And each of these conflicts or even tensions will not only "divert attention" but also dissipate the resources of Western countries. The Russian Federation will also make efforts to destabilize the internal situation in Ukraine with the intention to create social tension and divide the society. And it will also actively influence political processes in the US and the EU. Taking into account the political processes in the West, Ukraine may face the reduction of military and financial aid to the minimum necessary level. It may also face a slowdown in the implementation of security guarantees and sanctions against Russia.But despite these processes, Ukrainian society will remain resistant to attempts to impose "peace talks". The process of launching Ukraine's integration into the EU will still begin in 2024. Although talks of membership or simplified accession to NATO during the Washington Summit are not expected. The main factor of uncertainty remains the US elections in November 2024 with Donald Trump quite possibly coming to power.
Positional war: 31.02%
The most probable scenario, 31.02%, is that the war in the current state will continue in 2024. When we are talking about a positional war, the possibility of changing the front line can be achieved only with significant losses. This doesn't mean that Ukraine will only defend. In particular, there is a plan to conduct offensives to break the front line in the southern and eastern directions. But Russia will also realize similar actions, trying to use the intensification of its actions as a political tool during the US elections in order to prove the helplessness of any Western support and impose another "Minsk talks". At the same time, the Kremlin will also actively try to destabilize the situation around the world, as well as in Ukraine, but with less results than in the previous version.
Meanwhile, support for Ukraine in the world will remain at the current level, but with a tendency of reduction and calls to use it more effectively. And the actual transition of the war to a truly exclusively "positional" level with individual peaks of activity will also reduce attention to it in the world and in Ukrainian society itself. This will also cause tension in the domestic political sphere.
At the same time, for the Kremlin, the question of the profitability of "positional war" also has its basis. The Russian Federation continues to scale up arms production, conduct constant military recruitment and generally "play the long game," expecting that Ukraine's military and financial support will reach its minimum.
Freezing the war: 18.8%
Ukraine's lack of military successes, Putin's further stay in power and political processes in the US will lead to the activation of the option of attempts to push for peace talks. At the same time, such an imposition will come not only from Russia, but also from the West. A whole list of options will be offered, including "Korean" or "German", with a promise to accept the unoccupied part of the country into NATO. But even such negotiations will depend on the specific situation at the front. For example, successful actions of the AFU could lead to an option with the borders fixed at the level before February 22, 2022, but without the previously occupied territories - Crimea and parts of Donbas. In order to reach such agreements, the West may offer to increase long-term packages to strengthen defense capabilities and provide direct security guarantees. However, the actual imposition of peace talks will lead to a further escalation of internal political and social tensions in Ukraine. Although we are mostly talking about negotiating positions, this scenario will depend on many factors: the amount of Western support with weapons and finance, the current front line, the ability to continue the war at this pace, and the pressure on Russia not only from the US and EU, but also from countries like China.
Increasing the advantage of Ukraine: 18,8%
Similar to the previous option of freezing the war through negotiations, 18.8% estimated the probability of a scenario in which increased support from partners and the development of domestic arms production will lead to the gradual de-occupation of Ukraine's territory in 2024. But this process will continue in 2025.
At the same time, the Russian Federation is unable to recover losses, although Putin will be able to retain power. And even under this scenario, Ukraine's integration into NATO and the EU will stay at the negotiation stage, because in any case, it will be a long gradual de-occupation and continuation of hostilities after a year.
The victory of Ukraine: 3,76%
The least likely scenario is that Ukraine will win a complete victory, not in 2024, but in 2025. This scenario assumes continued effective support for Ukraine, along with the obtaining of long-range weapons of its own production for strikes on the deep rear of the Russian Federation.
However, social tensions in the Russian Federation will grow amid huge losses and constant waves of mobilizations that will affect large cities. And the increase in the number of mobilized in Russia will be superimposed on the inability to provide similar payments and the Afghan syndrome in society. In some regions, protest moods will grow, particularly on an ethnic basis.
The key factors in this scenario are increased support, including the use of confiscated assets, the steady transfer of a significant amount of modern high-tech weapons, including aircraft, combined with new methods of combat operations based on training of fighters, and the active massive use of drones. And due to this, as well as long-range weapons and situational awareness of the considerable depth of the enemy's front, to continue to successfully conduct maneuver warfare.
All of this will force the Kremlin to begin a gradual withdrawal of troops in order to maintain only certain occupied territories. At the same time, the civilized world will strengthen the blockade of the Russian Federation, and Ukraine's integration processes into NATO and the EU will be accelerated, although they won't be realized in such a short time.
