Kyiv-Mohyla Business School lecturer, entrepreneur and public figure Valeriy Pekar believes that for Americans, Ukraine is a rebellious province that needs to be brought back home. And they compare the Russian-Ukrainian war to the Civil War in the United States, where good northerners have to defeat bad southerners and finally restore order in their lands.
Pekar posted his thoughts on his Facebook page.
It seems that the new American administration has some special feelings towards Russia. There are many reasons that contribute to this.
1. Every American administration, starting with President George W. Bush, has tried to reset relations with Russia. It has never worked, and relations have only gotten worse. But each successive president believes that he is the one who will succeed, because he is the best negotiator.
2. Added to this is the desire to repeat President Richard Nixon's success in breaking the link between Russia and China, only now in the reverse format. Nixon managed to tear China away from the USSR, but this was at a time when Soviet-Chinese relations were deteriorating. Today, China is heavily integrated into Russian affairs and largely controls Russia, so the desire is futile.
3. The transactional approach to international politics attracts the American administration with Russia's vast natural resources, for which profitable deals can be made.
4. The old world order has been broken, and the US is actively breaking it, although it previously tried to preserve it. Russia looks like a country that has become a battering ram for breaking the old world order, as Comrade Xi noted. In other words, the interests of two countries coincided here (even three, because China is also interested). If it is possible to end the war with benefits for Russia, then the US will be able to start similar wars of aggression (sorry, special military operations).
5. There is another area where the interests of the United States, Russia, and China coincide: weakening Europe and distancing it from America. For China, this has generally been one of its main foreign policy goals, unattainable for decades.
6. For many Americans, Russia appears to be a defender of traditional values in a postmodern world, a true Christian country that opposes the postmodern agenda they hate.
7. Americans and Russians feel that their countries are somewhat similar. Vast expanses, conquered by brave pioneers and cleared of unwanted natives, and so on. Americans don't like empires, but they don't consider Russia an empire because they know almost nothing about it.
8. Add to this the personal sympathies of the two old authoritarian leaders. I assume that Trump is jealous of Putin, who managed to destroy hated institutions and concentrate power (although it took more than a decade). It seems that Putin is simply breeding Trump and flattering him, which looks like “live recruitment”.
9. Americans love it when David defeats Goliath. True, they consider Russia to be David, the bearer of the weak blessed truth. And they consider NATO, led by them, to be Goliath, a dull heavy force that opposes Russia (this is where the talk about the war being provoked by NATO expansion comes from). Ukraine is simply not in this equation.
10. Similarly, Americans sympathize with Israel (I won’t go into the reasons here, there are many) and project this sympathy onto Russian-Ukrainian relations — only for some reason the analogue of Israel here is Russia, and Ukraine is a kind of Gaza Strip, a source of constant problems. (Similarly, India sympathizes with Russia, because for them Russia is an analogue of India, and Ukraine is a kind of Pakistan, militarized, hostile, subversive, harmful.)
11. Also for Americans, Ukraine is a rebellious province that needs to be brought back home. They compare the Russian-Ukrainian war to the American Civil War, where good northerners have to defeat bad southerners and finally restore order to their lands.
12. There are almost no people in the new American administration who really know anything about Russia or Ukraine, and traditional “think tanks” have no influence now. Russia has invested in propaganda on American soil for decades, which cannot be said about Ukraine.
13. Traditional flaws of "Russian studies", analyzed in the article in the comments: working off Russian money, worship of "great Russian culture", etc.
14. Americans, and not only them, consider the world system of major players to be stable, and its changes undesirable. Large nations have more rights, primarily the right to zones of exclusive interests. They are never defeated (false). They cannot be punished by significant sanctions, embargoes, confiscations, trials of leaders, and lowering of status in international organizations.
You see, we are dealing with deep roots. The vast majority of the problems described above are shaped by long-term trends in American politics, not by the personal preferences of the leader.
All of the above leads to a gradual migration of American policy from supporting Ukraine "as much as necessary" to the position of a mediator (seemingly logical if you want to promote a peace agreement) and then to the position of unilateral pressure on the weaker party, because it (i.e. us) looks not only more compliant, but also wrong.
Point number 2 alone about using Russia to confront China would be enough, and the collapse of the Russian Federation would make this goal unattainable and significantly strengthen China — the realization of this unites Republicans and Democrats in the USA. (Here I want to emphasize once again: the collapse of the Russian Federation is approaching, but we are not dealing with obvious signs of a rapid collapse, but with a monotonous function of the slow decline of imperial “scraps” that can hold the empire together for quite a long time, but not indefinitely: one day the function will fall below the waterline, and the Russian imperial ship will quickly sink; this may happen after a rather significant period of time, so we need to live to see that moment.) So back in 2022, I wrote that the day would come when the US would stop supporting Ukraine against Russia and start supporting Russia against Ukraine. Fortunately, an alternative is currently being formed in the form of Europe.
What to do? The list remains unchanged:
1. Increase Ukraine's capacity, primarily through significant changes in the governance system, which does not correspond to the scale of the challenges.
2. Strengthen relations with Europe - our allies there.
3. Remember that all of the above applies only to half of the US. Support for Ukraine remains quite high. Do not fall into anti-Americanism, cooperate with our friends in the US.
4. Try to gently and gradually change the picture of our enemies in the US. This will take time, but someone has to do it. There is something to be said for each of the above points.
5. Redouble efforts to decolonize the Russian Federation: no Russian Federation, no problem.
Read also: Consolation prize — Crimea and four regions. What does Steve Witkoff's scandalous statement mean?