Russia has several scenarios for the development of armed aggression against Ukraine in the coming years, as reported by “Radio Svoboda” with a reference to a recent statement made by the Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense.
According to intelligence specialists, the most dangerous scenario is Russia starting a large-scale war. In order to minimize resistance, such scenario would be implemented as soon as possible. Russia might use aviation to destroy strategic military and economic targets.
Experts note that, as of today, Russia has 500 tactical aircrafts and over 300 military helicopters in regions bordering Ukraine.
“I am fully convinced that their first stage is conducting a full-scale air operation. In addition to aviation, missile troops, artillery and electronic warfare are also involved. They did not give them up. We have to prepare and talk openly about the situation,” Ivan Aparshin, security and defense advisor of the Office of the President of Ukraine, states.
The second stage of a full-scale invasion may be a ground operation. According to intelligence, in 2018 Russia has concentrated over 80 thousand soldiers at a Russian-Ukrainian border and occupied territories. In addition, three new motorized rifle divisions have been created in the Russian Southern Military District since 2016.
“They give up the brigade management system and switch to the divisional system. They abandon the operational command and return to the military districts. They have created two operational and strategic directions. Everything screams that this army is preparing for war,” Aparshin added.
It is possible that the Russian Federation would use non-strategic, less powerful nuclear warheads. Currently, there are five ships, six submarines and twelve bombers capable of carrying missiles with a nuclear warhead in the occupied Crimea.
The intelligence is certain that Russia could carry out three thousand launches of high-precision missiles.
As “Apostrophe” reported earlier, Putin’s rating fell to its new historical bottom on the 20th anniversary of his reign.