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Sunday, 22 December
world

Russia is preparing for a war with NATO: ISW points to an alarming signal

Vladimir Putin signed two decrees to restore the former Moscow and Leningrad military districts, which were merged into a single Western Military District (WMD) in 2010. Apparently, such actions are part of Russia's attempts to resume command of the military districts and control the NATO border. The newly created districts may also be Putin's attempt to show his intentions and demonstrate readiness to confront NATO.

More about these decrees is reported by the Institute for the Study of War.

The report says that on Monday, Feb. 26, Vladimir Putin signed two decrees to restore the Moscow and Leningrad military districts.

One of the decrees signed by the Russian president deprives the Russian Northern Fleet of the status of an "interservice strategic territorial organization" and transfers the lands of the Northwestern Federal District (previously subordinate to the Northern Fleet), to the new districts.

Putin's second decree was directly related to the restoration of the Leningrad Military District and the Moscow Military District. In turn, the Leningrad Military District (LMD) is transferred to the territory that used to be part of the Northern Fleet.

The creation of the MMD should include most of the territory formerly part of the Western Military District (or WMD). However, the February 26 decree officially disbanded the WMD, whose territories covered Russia's border with northeastern Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states.

However, this division means that the newly created LMD will now run along NATO's northeastern border. Meanwhile, the MMD will border northeastern Ukraine and Poland. "which will allow Russia to simultaneously oppose NATO and optimize command and control," ISW analysts note.

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ISW notes that Putin's second decree also refers to the occupied territories of Ukraine, which he plans to annex to the Southern Military District (SMD). In particular, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk and Luhansk Regions are mentioned. Temporarily occupied Crimea has been included in the Southern Military District since 2014.

"Including both occupied and unoccupied parts of Ukrainian territory also demonstrates that Russia supports maximalist goals in Ukraine and seeks to fully absorb all five of these Ukrainian territories into the Russian Federation," the report from ISW said.

The Institute for the Study of War has previously reported that the formal transfer of regions that were previously under the responsibility of the Northern Fleet may be part of a broader Russian effort to resume command of military districts as the main headquarters of the Russian land forces, as well as transfer naval assets to the Russian Navy.

ISW notes how Russian media reported in November 2023 that naval assets of all five Russian fleets could return to direct subordination to the Russian Navy, while the land-based aviation and air defense assets of the fleets would be assigned to military district commands.

The Institute for the Study of War points out that this data has not yet been confirmed, but "it appears that the Russian military is attempting to re-consolidate ground forces and assets in military districts while simultaneously consolidating naval forces and assets under the command of the Russian navy".

In addition, ISW analysts believe that the reestablishment of these districts "supports the parallel goals of consolidating control over Russian operations in Ukraine in the short and medium term and preparing for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO in the long term."

It is also worth noting that Putin had previously mentioned the need to create the LMD after Finland joined NATO in 2023. Thus, Russia wanted to show its intention to use this district to confront NATO.

We will remind, earlier the Alliance made a firm statement regarding whether NATO troops will be sent to Ukraine.