Monday, 22 July

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Dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada: restarting the old system or creating a new crisis in Ukraine

What would be the consequences of Volodymyr Zelensky's decision to dissolve Rada

What would be the consequences of Volodymyr Zelensky's decision to dissolve Rada Фото:

The newly elected President Volodymyr Zelensky during the inauguration declared the dissolution of the Parliament. This decision is unlikely to surprise anyone. On the contrary, the parliamentarians were ready for this, although they hoped to the last that this decision would not happen so soon, and taking into account the legal conflict on this issue, they could assume that the re-elections would not take place. "Apostrophe" tried to understand what is behind the decision to hold re-elections to the Parliament and why the restart of the old system may be replaced by a new period of political turbulence.

Zelensky's call to abolish for parliamentary immunity, to vote for the law on criminal liability for illegal enrichment, the long-suffering (as the President himself called it) electoral code and open lists, as well as the subsequent decision on the early dissolution of the Parliament – caused an exceptional delight and a long ovation in those present in the Mariinsky Park. And this is not surprising, because this is the President the country has been waiting for for a long time – resolute and uncompromising head of the country. And already during his first speech in the position of the President of state Zelensky showed Ukraine and the world that this is how he intends to rule the country, and certainly not going to cut corners with the old system.

But, if one looks at the situation from the other side, the excitement and jubilation are quickly replaced by anxiety and unfounded fears, because the announcement of early parliamentary elections (moreover, on a dubious legal basis) can lead not only to a "restart", but also to an internal political crisis, and there are, alas, much more prerequisites for the latter. In addition, it can be a serious "red flag for our Western partners, for whom Ukraine has long since moved from the position of "important region" to the status of "problematic partner", where there is no respect for the law and the ability of dialogue between political elites, even soaked with corruption.

Therefore, the newly elected President and his team, even not formed and presented to the general public, need to take care not only of the "gimmicks" and "beautiful" picture, but also to understand that under the conditions of an undeclared war and an "ever-vigilant Eastern neighbor, any, even the most insignificant crisis can lead to irreparable consequences. But such turbulence, in turn, cannot guarantee the full enforcement of the rule of law and legitimacy of the electoral process, and it is said that in a short time the country could be outside the legal field, also on the background of domestic political confrontation, and the instability of the main government bodies.

We should not forget about the fact that the re-election of the Parliament falls for the middle of July, a period traditionally characterized by the conduct by Russia of all kinds of provocations and even military exacerbations in relation to Ukraine. Thus Russia will be able to play on the increase in rates not only under the guise of issuing passports to residents isolated districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but with active military operations. Therefore, even without taking into account the possible re-elections and the absence of any hint of coalition formations in the new Parliament, it is necessary to prepare for this, and considering the internal political crisis we need to be ready for this.

However, the understanding of the potential of such destabilization moments by the team of the current President all more and more questionable. After all, so far, neither he nor his team have been able to determine who will be appointed to key official positions and what state policy to conduct. And those names that pop up in the media all the time can be called nothing more but frustration and "greetings from the past". It is obvious that many forces will now try to exert various kinds of influence on the young politician who has not yet gained political muscle, but the success of President Zelensky will depend on how soon he will learn to filter such processes and build his objective political direction. Otherwise, the scandal accusations on the part of the counsel of the Trump Rudy Giuliani about "enemies in the team of Zelensky" may be only the first and most dangerous step for the new President.

In this regard, one of the possible options for avoiding the internal political crisis for the current Ukrainian political community would be the formation of a new coalition in the old Parliament, followed by the creation of a new real working government. During this transition period, the coalition and the government should be formed with the involvement of the maximum number of political forces interested in stability and prevention of political crisis. First of all, the newly elected President should become a part of this process. The full re-election of the Parliament and the creation of a new generation coalition with the previous voting according to the new electoral code should be the next stage, as provided for by the legislation in the middle of autumn. If the transition period is stepped over, it is likely to create a crisis in the country and not allow the new political forces to fully prepare for the elections and go to Parliament.

But all this will only be possible if the current government really shows the maximum political will to ensure stable functioning of public authorities and the ability to avoid deterioration in relations with the country-aggressor, and the Parliament will find the strength to agree to form a working coalition and to introduce new legislation on elections, and, most importantly, will demonstrate to the world the presence in Ukraine of civilized rules of the game and the ability of new politicians not to repeat the mistakes of the past, but to be able to negotiate and work for the benefit of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.

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