Caught in the crossfire of a scandalous Donald Trump-Joe Biden battle, Ukraine quickly became a focal point of the international news. While both political rivals face a myriad of criticism and corruption accusations, “Ukrainegate” may prove a political downfall for one of the two – or even both. Did President Trump make a fatal mistake, undermining his 2020 presidential campaign, or will the Biden scandal serve as a useful tool in Trump’s wider strategy?
Donald Trump and his top lawyer Rudy Giuliani have accused the democratic hopeful and former Vice President Joe Biden of abusing his position to stop an investigation against the Ukrainian gas company called Burisma Holdings – a company where, interestingly, Biden’s son took a seat on the board of directors in 2014. After Barack Obama had appointed Biden as his point man on Ukraine, then-Vice President actively pushed Ukraine’s leader Petro Poroshenko to fire the Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin.
The alleged accusations, however, make no factual sense. At the time Shokin was asked to resign, one of the two investigations against Zlochevsky (Burisma’s owner) had already failed in the British court. Another one had been long reassigned to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, leaving the jurisdiction of the Prosecutor General’s Office. Moreover, the second case couldn’t have concerned Hunter Biden at all: it investigated the 2010-2012 timeframe, while Biden Jr. joined Burisma in 2014.
Interestingly, the information on both cases – including dates and official structures in charge – is rather accessible. With Rudy Giuliani’s skills as a lawyer and Donald Trump’s entrepreneurship, the two could not have missed the lack of legal potential in the Biden scandal. A quick fact-check proves the reality doesn’t match the Republican narrative, rendering the requested investigation futile. Moreover, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko has already handed case materials to the Biden saga instigator and former New York mayor. Rudy and his team, in turn, have concluded the investigation useless for the American justice system – the offence could not be established. The absence of judicial context, however, is not equal to the absence of PR prospects. Ukraine’s formal investigation against the Biden family would prove an advantageous instrument in taking down Joe Biden.
Why, then, would Donald Trump pressure a foreign leader into the Biden-Shokin-Burisma probe, risking having the tables turned? After all, Trump’s pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky backfired, and now he is the one on the receiving end of corruption accusations and an impeachment inquiry. The key lies with understanding both republican and democratic electoral base.
Trump has always used negative publicity to raise society’s attention to his persona. Ranging from relatively innocent name-calling to the Mueller report and alleged collusion with Russia, the US president managed to utilize scandals as means to stir up his core electorate. For instance, mere days ago he attacked the journalists calling them “animals” and “scum”. With the president’s every new dubious move, democrats grow progressively outraged, while republicans feel an urge to back their leader. One can see the same scenario unraveling now: polls do not show any decline in Donald Trump’s approval ratings. The latest Biden vs. Trump Rasmussen Reports poll even showcases the current president winning by four points – which is a noticeable change compared to August, when Biden would always prove victorious.
Democrats, however, are rather sensitive to scandals, speeches, performances, and other campaign incidents. Every success and every mistake define the ratings, shaping the electoral fate of 2020 hopefuls. Kamala Harris serves as the prime example of this tendency: her ratings peaked after an impressive debate performance, which was soon overshadowed by new events and developments. According to most polls, Harris currently wins around 4-5%. Unlike the republican field, democrats have a diverse variety of candidates, allowing for a less stable selection process.
The scandal’s figurant, Joe Biden, has already felt the situation’s effect on his poll results. He is now tailed – and sometimes outpaced – by the Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. While Biden Sr. may prove completely innocent in the Shokin-Burisma case, the constant adverse attention and scrutiny will inevitably lower his chances of getting the democratic nomination. With pressuring Zelensky into the Biden family probe, the US president does not aim to find any actual wrongdoings. He, however, intends to encourage an extensive investigation, dragging his Biden-Shokin-Burisma conspiracy for months and using it as an inexhaustible source of attacks and speculations. The ultimate goal: having Elizabeth Warren climbing to the top and becoming the democratic candidate.
Former Vice President Biden poses the most serious threat to Trump’s second presidency. Unlike Elizabeth Warren, “Uncle Joe” may appeal to independents and moderate republicans disappointed with the current establishment. Despite Biden causing less excitement and gathering smaller crowds than his top opponents, he strategically appears to be the party’s best bet. Warren, who came in first in a couple of most recent polls, is too left to swing a share of Trump’s more neutral voters. With her heavy big banks and corporations critique, the Massachusetts Senator has also managed to deter the Wall Street democratic donors. “You’re in a box because you’re a Democrat and you’re thinking, ‘I want to help the party, but she’s going to hurt me, so I’m going to help President Trump,’” one of the donors anonymously told CNBS. For Trump, however, opposing a far-left candidate would be a much more favorable scenario than facing a centrist. With Warren as his democratic rival, the president would have high chances of reelection.
While the “Ukrainegate” scandal may currently appear disastrous for Donald Trump, he can utilize it as a tool to further his own interests. The president will make the most of the “witch-hunt” narrative, which he has successfully employed to energize his core voters since Robert Mueller’s probe. Same as with alleged Russia collusion, Trump’s devoted supporters will blame the democrats and back their leader. Unless the president is formally convicted and impeached, Trump is likely to still benefit from the situation at hand – unlike former Vice President Joe Biden. Moreover, if Trump is convicted, there is still room for hope: Congress may force him out of the White House without banning to seek office again.
It all, however, might just prove irrelevant. In the world of post-truth, it doesn’t really matter what Congress finds or how the investigation flows. The scandal has already done its strategic job: it created a narrative that will live its own life despite the veracity of allegations.
