Monday, 17 June

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​Was there any conspiracy: why is Trump afraid to openly "be friends" with Putin

The investigation against Trump continues

The investigation against Trump continues Фото: EPA

As evidenced by the findings released by US Attorney General William Barr, Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller found no evidence of conspiracy of Donald Trump or any of his team with Russia and coordination between them of Russian interference in the US elections in 2016.

Americanologist Serhii Halaka, Professor of the Institute of International Relations of KNU named after Taras Shevchenko told to "Apostrophe" about the importance of this fact and the possible further development of events.

The findings of Muller's investigation are a big political plus for Trump and a victory at a certain stage. However, the reaction of Congress shows that they do not put an end to this. All committees continue to investigate. Some congressmen believe that since there are several people who have already testified, and there are relevant court decisions, Congress should investigate the case to the end.

The situation is turning into a political battle and the search for new problems. And Trump definitely has them. For example, Michael Cohen (former lawyer of Donald Trump, - "Apostrophe") in the testimony said that the investigation is ongoing in the southern district of Manhattan, and there is serious evidence of violations of the US President in his economic, commercial and financial activities.

That is, it will not be limited to foreign policy aspects. But this is less about Ukraine. Now it is primarily internal American disputes aimed at the future presidential elections.

I think due to this Trump will hold the basic electorate (and it is equip to 37-39%), not more. However, for the outcome of the presidential elections, the state of the economy will be more important: if the fall begins, and this is a very likely scenario, nothing will help Trump, including some foreign policy successes. Even if he did manage to achieve the denuclearization of North Korea, but this will not happen.

However, at this stage, it is, of course, a tactical victory of Trump, which will be promoted.

Congress has enormous powers: it can summon anyone, including the President, to testify. Congressmen say: if Trump refuses to voluntarily provide information, they may well use such a mechanism.

In addition, there is already an active preliminary nomination of presidential candidates from the Democrats, and now each of them has to make some contribution to these battles, to position themselves. Heavyweight candidates Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are critical about Trump.

There is another aspect on which Democrats will focus their attention - the role of Attorney General William Barr, who heads the Ministry of Justice, a member of the Cabinet and a proven Republican figure. He watched the investigation and may have somehow softened the conclusions or persuaded Mueller not to make radical conclusions. If there is information that Trump tried to influence Barr, that is, abused his powers, then everything will go in a new circle.

The Democrats will definitely not stop there. The question is where they will pull - and there are no unambiguous estimates yet. Potentially, Trump's chances of re-election may increase from the fact that he was not charged, unless there is something else. But if it is, then they will remind everything to Trump.

From now on, the United States will be careful with Russia: not only the current administration, but also the next one - that's for sure. On the other hand, Trump will now be afraid of any signals in favor of the Russian Federation, as it is immediately interpreted as evidence of a conspiracy with Russia. This is likely to continue to tie the hands of Trump and his administration.

And Russia has already started a propaganda campaign. I think that in the pre-election period [in the US] they will take full advantage of this, trampling on the American political system.

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