As socialist Bernie Sanders makes his way to become Donald Trump’s likely Democratic opponent, Coronavirus may hinder the incumbent’s chances for reelection. Trump, in turn, continues ruining the U.S. relations with Ukraine and undermining American democracy. While Kyiv still has American bipartisan support, it is improbable that Ukraine will see an increase in aid, as expressed by Professor Allan Lichtman of American University in Washington D.C.
- You are the author of thirteen keys to the presidency – the factors that forecast the outcome of a presidential election. With your methodology, you successfully predicted presidents since 1984. In your opinion, who is going to win in the 2020 presidential race?
- Of all candidates, Sanders has the best chance to win the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. The next most likely possibility is that no candidate wins enough delegates to secure the nomination and the nominee is selected by the National Convention in July. We have not seen such a scenario play out in more than 50 years.
- Bernie Sanders is a socialist. Clearly, Trump will start an anti-campaign against him, arguing, “Do you want America to be like the People's Republic of China?”
Bernie Sanders is as electable against Donald Trump as any other Democrat is. Ideology and issues have no predictive value in presidential elections. For decades, Democrats thought they had solved the electability puzzle by nominating moderate, experienced candidates: Michael Dukakis in 1988, Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry in 2004, and Hillary Clinton in 2016. What these candidates have in common is that they all lost.
Only unconventional, ”off-the-wall” Democratic candidates have won the presidency during the last fifty years. Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama were unknown figures from outside the party establishment. All were at one time considered unelectable by pundits and party operatives.
Sanders also polls as well or better than the moderate candidates against Donald Trump. This is true both of national polling and polls in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin.
- How is Trump’s campaign doing?
- Impeachment pins the stain of scandal on his presidency. It is only one factor that counts against him, however. The scandal is his weakest point. His strongest point is the economy, which could be in jeopardy as a result of the Coronavirus if it enters the U.S. significantly.
- Previously, you told Politico that Trump’s impeachment leads the U.S. to autocracy. Could you expand on that?
- America has always been a world-leading democracy. Not just because we vote for our officeholders but because the founders very advisedly put in the balance of power. The President is only one of three branches of the government. And he is checked by the Congress and the Courts. Unfortunately, Donald Trump has rejected checks-and-balances. He believes he is like a chief executive officer of the Trump Organization. He is the CEO of America. And as he has said – I can do anything I want. It doesn't matter what the Congress might do, what the Courts might do. We saw that the impeachment was a validation of that.
Trump undermined our democracy and our national security and US Senate did not check him. We also saw our chef constitutional expert Alan Dershowitz put forward this doctrine that as long as it is not committed a statutory crime, the President can do anything he wants to cheat in the upcoming election, thus not only robbing the Americans of the balance of power but also robbing us of free elections. That is a very pernicious result of this impeachment trial.
Donald Trump
- Speaking about autocracy, is Trump a good CEO?
- First of all, there is no such thing as a “good autocrat”. Autocrats in our history and all over the world abused the power for themselves – to advance themselves, to promote themselves, to enrich themselves, to expand their power. For the good of the country, the American founders recognized that. That's why they put in checks-and-balances. Benjamin Franklin said we would have a republic if we can keep it.
And we have a president who presumes he can do anything he wants regardless of checks-and-balances that are built into our constitutional system. We can see Trump has done very harmful things with his executive power. For instance, he intervened in the Department of Justice. He’s also used his executive orders to undermine our environmental regulations that exposed not just America but the whole world to the catastrophic effects of climate change. He is using his executive power to abuse the emigration system, to separate families, to keep children in detention centers. All these things are dangerous for the future of our country.
- Trump says he might ban the monitoring of his conversations with international leaders.
- The patter we see with Donald Trump is that the foreign leaders he favors are foreign dictators. These are people like Vladimir Putin, President Xi of China and President Erdogan in Turkey. He wants to be an autocratic ruler. This is very bad for the country’s future, as it undermines the western lines, which made our country safe for so long. It gives Vladimir Putin a green light to intervene in the next presidential election. We know it is coming. Our intelligence has warned us, and the independent counsel Mueller has warned us. Our democracy is very much in danger as Trump is cuddling the dictators.
- They say Trump has also removed the staff working on Ukraine at the White House. He fired everyone who took part in the impeachment process, one way or another. In your opinion, what does the future hold for Ukrainian-American relations?
- I am not an expert in international relations; however, trying to put Ukraine in the impossible position of intervening in American elections certainly undermines our relations. Ukraine has no business meddling in American politics and the U.S. has no business meddling in Ukrainian politics.
Nevertheless, I have to believe that there is enough commitment to Ukraine’s security among both Republicans and Democrats. Therefore, I do not believe the future support is going to be destroyed.
Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump
- Do Americans perceive Ukraine as the cause of Donald Trump’s impeachment?
- No, I don't think Ukraine is the cause of impeachment. Donald Trump is the cause of impeachment.
It just so happened that he was using Ukraine to try and advance his political interests. However, Ukraine is not the cause of impeachment.
- According to a Russian political scientist and publicist Andrei Piontkovsky, Ukraine gained rather than lost strong bipartisan support. Do you think we could on the increase of aid?
- I would not count on the increase in aid. However, what you can count on is continued support. You know, Donald Trump has undermined U.S.-Ukraine relations, but as I said, the bipartisan support is strong enough. Thus, Ukraine can count on the fact that American support won’t stop.
- Some believe Volodymyr Zelensky shouldn’t meet Trump before the U.S. elections. What do you think?
- It’s better that they don’t meet. It’s difficult to predict what’s on Trump’s mind, and what he’s going to do next. He constantly changes his plans.
- Piontkovsky has also noted that Ukraine could soon become a major Non-NATO ally. Do you think it’s possible?
- I think it’s possible, but I don't believe it will happen before the next elections. We have to wait and see.
I can only hope that, despite all Donald Trump’s efforts, 2020 elections will be free of foreign influence. And I think Mitch McConnell – the Republican leader in the U.S. Senate – has to be ashamed of himself for blocking the bills meant to protect American elections from interference. That is very and very sad.
