Former Member of the European Parliament Rebecca Harms shared her opinion on the issues of ecology and refugees, Russia’s aggressive policy and Europe’s role in establishing peace in Ukraine.
- What is the most important issue for EU in 2020? Could you please name 2-3 cases (or trends) and in short describe their consequences for the European Union?
- Ursula von der Leyen is the first female President of the EU Commission. She has managed to achieve nearly gender-balanced collegium of Commissioners. Together with Von der Leyen, Laura Kövesi starts to work as first EU Prosecutor and Christine Lagarde is now leading the European Central Bank. Un unprecedented breakthrough for women in European top jobs. The big success of Boris Johnson brought the final decision for Brexit. Johnson and Trump represent in the West an already known challenge: they doubt the value of liberal democracy and they neglect the EU´s achievements. Again the EU and all its member states have to demonstrate why we are stronger in an alliance and union of democracy. United answers are needed for the future of fundamentals of EU like security, human rights or enlargement. There is a debate about a new EU convention and Treaty change. The refugee crisis is again getting worse around the Mediterranean but since 2015 EU isn´t able to agree on an adequate and a sustainable answer. Von der Leyen, on the other hand, was good in moving ahead with the Green New Deal for Europe which should become the big common alliance for climate, environment, innovation and employment.
- Do you see much change after new European leaders are elected? What news should we expect to hear from EU in 2020?
- With the new Commission the issues and goals remain the same. Refugee crisis and migration, global warming are pushed by public pressure. Many people especially the younger citizens want to see fast actions. The EU Commission has some influence and responsibilities but can only be successful in agreement with the EU Council and the member states governments. Miracles can happen if the three institutions in Brussels find agreements.
- What Brexit developments do you foresee in 2020?
- The UK election result finally brought clarity about Brexit. And after that many prolongations of a neverending weird story I am fine with the clarity. I hope EU will be able now to give more attention to other challenges. I can`t predict the ability to negotiate in the new UK government. I keep my fingers crossed that the process will be better than during the last frustrating years. For the sake of citizens in UK and EU. I am worried for the Scottish and the Irish people and fully understand that many of them still do not want to leave EU but debate independence again. Stability for UK is not in sight for 2020 and probably not for many years to come. .
- Do you believe Russia’s influence in EU will be stronger in 2020?
- The Nordstream2 project shows a lot about the influence of Russia in Germany and some other EU states. Germany in the last days of 2019 faces a weird debate about what some call sanctions against EU sovereignty after the bipartisan decision in Washington on sanctions against companies participating in the gas- and pipeline deal. It is not new but a continuing security problem that Putin successfully splits EU internally and increases tensions with the US.
- What Normandy format prospects do you see?
- In this format Germany and France can only deliver to the benefit of Ukraine if they do not allow Putin to institutionalize the occupation of parts of Ukraine. The two main EU actors in the Normandy round have to stand for Ukrainian sovereignty as a matter of European security. If they don’t they will weaken already fragile relations in the EU.
- Do you think Ukraine’s armed conflict with Russia will near its end?
- Ukraine alone cannot win against Russia. The future of Donbas and Crimea very much depends on the Western allies. Personally I am convinced since years that we should follow two tracks. Support Ukrainians who suffer from war and occupation. And we should focus the implementation of Minsk on the withdrawal of Russian forces connected to the support of an international robust observation mission. There is no chance even not for a ceasefire without international observation. The West should not follow Putin’s idea about elections and special status. How comes that a President who doesn’t allow democratic elections at home is so obsessed with elections for Donbas?
- Is Angela Merkel’s coalition collapsing? Can she lose her power?
- German citizens still are in a phase to adapt to the idea that Merkel will leave the Kanzleramt. She did some steps to prepare. But neither her rivals in her own party CDU nor those in the SPD doubting the coalition have been able to present convincing new faces. Many voices from German press complaint since years that Merkel does never act and would be only waiting. Now that she really sometimes wants others to act same voices are missing Merkel’s activities and her ability to build consensus. Like she did it for Ukraine in the EU. She will not lose her power in 2020. I hope those who want to take over have some years to really get prepared. But it looks as if after Merkel the CDU will move a bit back to the right and the SPD will move to the left. Leaving a lot of space for my party if they dare to stand for ecological and social modernization putting pragmatism over ideology.
- The Fortune predicts oil prices to fall to $60 per barrel in the end of 2020. Where do you see the oil situation going?
- If the EU gets the Green New Deal right we will move away from fossil fuels. Instead of investment in new infrastructure for fossil fuels we have to think about climate-friendly strategies. The less money we give to Russia or the Saudis, the better for our security and climate. If we instead of importing LNG from US invest in renewables and efficiency the better for the climate and for industry and employment in EU. We have to invest in our future and not in Putin’s or others armies and superpower dreams.
- The same journal has predicted the new Arabian spring. Do you believe it’s the case?
- It is not difficult to predict that the protests which first started in Irak last year will continue and will continue to spread in the region. The violent reactions by the authorities show what protesters have to expect. It‘ s difficult to say wether the EU will or can have influence. Especially since even Turkey - in spite of membership negotiations and NATO membership - does not at all care about EU‘s opinions or requests. The still pending question of how the EU will react to more and more refugees from the region is weakening an already weak position.
Since Russia and Iran and meanwhile also Turkey are fighting in Syria I agree with those experts of the region who fear that the whole region will remain a battlefield. The West failed in the early days of the Syrian war. Putin used the weakness of the West. And right now it looks as if President Erdogan wants to prove to EU and NATO that their partnership and membership ideas have never been worth the paper their agreements were printed on.
- Speaking about economy and energy, the previous year had been highly focused on ecology. Do you believe 2020 will be just as ecological and vegan as 2019? How do you foresee the development of these trends?
I went to politics as an ecologist. That’s the reason why I joined the Greens. I very much appreciate the new climate movement to which so many young people have been attracted by Greta and her school strike. To be successful against global warming we have to build wider consensus not only among generations as some say it. We need consensus on how to change our energy systems, our way to produce, our products, our way of life. The consensus must include not only Fridays for Future students but also workers and trade unions, industry, entrepreneurs and farmers . I see the main task of responsible politicians to work on scenarios that people can understand and create trust in new ways of climate-friendly infrastructure or sustainable production and agriculture. The change which is required to achieve the Paris agreement is huge. even though we have some of the climate-friendly technologies available it will take time. The more consensus we create now the more we will achieve for and in the future. For me this whole exercise is a test for democratic societies. The polarization of society which I observe for example in Germany on the climate issue is more an obstacle to fight global warming than an agreed compromise. You cannot change society completely if you do not have lasting and wide support. How can you estimate climate change? Are these popular trends important? Many call Greta's ideas populist. What can you say about all these topics? Greta is a very engaged young woman who miraculously managed to get back global attention for the threats of climate change. This attention is very much needed. Remembering our early ecological fights I have to admit we were also simplifying the solutions for the problems we saw. Based on my experience in movements and in politics I see a promising way if we take not too much but enough time to come to feasible agreements that deliver in the fight against global warming and for sustainable economic development for more than the Europeans. The European Green New Deal is an offer going even to associated countries like Ukraine. We can make a lot out of it. But the world is by far bigger than Europe with billions of people who want to make their living. Success against global warming will work only if we start to really think about them as subjects with interests.
