Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan to buy Russia’s latest fifth-generation Su-57 stealth fighter after both leaders visited International Aviation and Space Salon MAKS-2019. The deal would be a stunning diplomatic triumph for Kremlin.
Bloomberg analysts Selcan Hacaoglu and Henry Meyer expand on the situation in their article.
Ankara was locked out of the U.S. program for advanced F-35 fighter jets after Erdogan decided to buy Russian S-400 air defense system. The country went for a deal after Washington’s refusal to provide the Patriot system on Turkish terms and conditions. The S-400 deal, however, provided partial technology transfer – something Washington refused to do. Now, Recep Tayyip Erdogan waits for a final decision on Turkey’s involvement in the F-35 program. On Wednesday, the U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper stated that Ankara is barred from the program without any room for compromise.
Turkey’s new military deal with Kremlin might add fuel to the fire in confrontation among the US, NATO and Turkey – NATO’s second-biggest military ally after the US, as the analysts supposed.
Stephen Flanagan, former special assistant to Presidents George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, asserts that Ankara may not leave NATO but start strengthening its cooperation with Moscow and Tehran, which is of deep concern to Washington.
Turning to Russia for jets may be an “elaborate bluff” to increase pressure on the US, yet it might prove a failed strategy. Turkey was going to buy about 100 F-35 jets. Now, however, the U.S could deny Ankara in providing stealth technologies out of fear that Kremlin would gain access to them.
After Erdogan’s S-400 purchase last month, Donald Trump expressed personal sympathy with the Turkish president’s “tough situation”. At the same time, American officials called for new sanctions.
As a country in question, Turkey does not see the deal as a betrayal. Ankara pursues its own interests and tries to reach its own goals. With the power shifting away from Europe and the US, Turkey envisions itself as more of an independent player in the global order, as an anonymous Turkish politician shared.
Earlier, Erdogan’s spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin told Bloomberg that Turkey does not drift from the West but is rather pushed away by NATO.
"Our Western friends and allies need to treat Turkey as an equal partner and address its security concerns in a serious manner”, he stressed.
Russian expert Andrei Kortunov believes that increased pressure on Ankara would deepen its relations with Moscow, as Turkish shift from the West “backs up Russia’s view of the changing world order".
In addition, any sanctions would threaten Turkey with serious economic problems. After the US hit Turkey with sanctions over a jailed preacher Andrew Brunson, Turkish economy showed the biggest recession in 10 years.
At the same time, Turkey’s priority lies with developing its own missile defense system -- in addition to the S-400 – rather than with acquiring F-35. In case the US does not provide F-35s, Ankara will seek a partner who would both sell fighter jets and help build the next Turkish one to replace the obsolete F-16s.