In 2024, the exchange rate of USD in Ukraine will vary insignificantly. But the situation in the financial market will remain more or less stable.
This is stated in the forecast of Fitch Ratings.
Analysts predict that Ukraine may experience economic growth due to the reduction of the interest rate from the NBU from 25 to 16%. This will have a positive impact on the exchange rate.
The transition from a fixed to a managed flexible exchange rate should have a positive impact on the exchange rate.
"Fitch expects that ongoing foreign exchange intervention will help to support the UAH/USD exchange rate's stability in the short term, along with the relatively gradual liberalization of the capital account," the forecast states.
It is also reported, the NBU forecasts that by the end of 2024, the inflation rate will reach 9.8%. At the same time, the average inflation rate in Ukraine over the last 10 years is 15.6% per year, so such an acceleration won't be something extraordinary. Therefore, there is every reason to keep a rather optimistic forecast for 2024. At the same time, it should be taken into account that we live in times of great uncertainty, when any prognosis may collapse, depending on the situation on the battlefield and the level of international support for Ukraine.