Russia will attack Ukraine unless NATO gives cast-iron guarantees that Kyiv will never be allowed to join the alliance, Fyodor Lukyanov, a Kremlin-linked foreign policy expert has said according to The Telegraph.
The suggestion by Fyodor Lukyanov is the clearest explanation yet as to why Russia has been massing troops near the Ukrainian border, leading to a rise in East-West tensions and fears of an imminent invasion.
Mr Lukyanov - chairman of the board of the Russian Foreign Affairs Council, which advises the Kremlin - made it clear in an article published on Wednesday that Moscow would be seeking more than just verbal reassurances from Nato.
“This recent round of escalation in Eastern Europe showed that the old principles of security on the continent are no longer working,” he wrote.
He warned of a “new conflict” if Nato expanded further east.
“Russia will have to change the system and draw new ‘red lines,” he said, mentioning a post-war deal between the Soviet Union and Finland, under which Moscow recognized Finland’s independence in return for Helsinki’s neutrality in the Cold War.
He added that the “gambit that led to the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia”, when Moscow invaded after claiming to have been provoked, “could well be replicated” in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has described the troop movement near the border as a deterrent against a Ukrainian government offensive in areas of the country held by Moscow-backed separatists.