Ukraine must prepare for a long war and prefer a policy of long-term deterrence against Russia to have Western support in the future.
This is the foreign experts opinion posted in article "Foreign Affairs".
The analysts note that Russia has a significant advantage in human resources, while Ukraine depends on military equipment supplies from its partners. As the allies' attention turns on internal and foreign policy issues, Ukraine's stockpiles of ammunition and weapons are running out.
The US Ambassador to Ukraine, 2006-2009, William Taylor, is confident that the future support of Ukraine depends on battlefield situation.
Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Luke Coffey said that expectations of the counteroffensive were too high, while the circumstances then and now are quite different.
Experts note that the West's optimism about the counteroffensive was based on the amount of military assistance that partners provided for Ukraine. Former CIA Chief David Petraeus said that the breakthrough did't happen because of weapons and equipment delay.
Luke Kofi noted that Ukraine still managed to achieve some successes in the counteroffensive, including the sea.
"Russia's Black Sea Navy is now starting its relocation from Crimea. Ukrainians were able to hit subs and other very expensive warships and destroy them. This will make a long-lasting effect for not only U.S. security but global security as well," he said. However, he believes that the war in Ukraine is entering a long-term phase and we should prepare for it.
According to John Herbst, Director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, the next year will be decisive. The AP is making a strategic mistake in expectation of a fast victory. It may create a false impression that Ukraine is not doing enough and cannot win the war.
"Foreign Affairs" notes that even if West fulfills all its obligations to help Ukraine, the war may not turn in its favor. The analysts connect this with the delays in supplying Ukraine with weapons.
At the same time, they are naive to believe that negotiations with Russia can bring benefits to Ukraine.
Analysts say that long-term deterrence of Russia will only benefit Ukraine. To continue Western support, Ukraine should base its arguments on the policy of holding back Russia, in the interests of both - Ukraine and West.